Guming

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Dolphin Research

Gu Ming: Subsidies Fade, Tea's 'Costco' Stays Solid!

On the evening of Mar 25 Beijing time, $GUMING(01364.HK) reported its 2025 H2 results. The second-half print was solid overall.

Against BBG estimates, most core operating metrics were beats, with the only overrun in marketing spend due to the strategic rollout of its coffee category. Key takeaways include: 1) contributions from both new and legacy stores, keeping revenue on a rapid growth trajectory...

Despite that, the stock opened higher and then faded intraday the next day. Dolphin Research understands the move was driven by profit-taking after the company had pre-briefed some institutions in small-group meetings.

1 古茗 天
Gu Ming 2H25 Financial Data Overview Unit: CNY 100M 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1H2
古茗总收入变化 in 100 millions ,CNY 80 70 60 DolphinResearch DolphinResearch YoY growth
古茗分层级开店数量变化 DolphinResearch DolphinReseare hinReseai 一线城市 新一线城市 二线及以下城市 16,000 1+6
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Dolphin Research

Gu Ming: Left hand takeaway, right hand coffee, is the 'Costco of the tea beverage industry' smiling again?

On the evening of August 26th, Beijing time, Gu Ming (1364.HK) released its 2025 H1 performance. As this is the first semi-annual report disclosed by Gu Ming after its listing, there are not many covering sell-side analysts, resulting in a lack of market consensus expectations. Dolphin Research believes the overall performance is quite good.

古茗
古茗财务数据概览 单位:亿元,人民币 2021 2022 2023 2024 1H24 2H24 1H25 整体 总营收 43.8 55.6 76.8 87.9
100 in 100 millions,CNY Guming total revenue 90 L 80 海豚投研 70 60 DolphinResearch
2.000 1,500 1744 1,000 500 phinResearch 不同连锁茶饮品牌上半年门店变化数 969 0 (500) 773 (1,000)+5
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Dolphin Research

Goodme: Strategic Flexibility and the 'Tea Industry's Costco' – Can It Sustain Long-Term Dominance?

In the previous article "Gu Ming: Slow is Fast! Is there a 'Costco' in the Tea Beverage Industry?", we focused on comparing the business model differences among Mixue Bingcheng, Chabaidao, Shanghai Auntie, and Gu Ming, and analyzed the advantages and unique strategies of Gu Ming's supply chain. In this article, we will focus on discussing from an investment perspective: 1) After reaching ten thousand stores, how much room is there for Gu Ming to open more stores domestically? 2) After the stock price tripled post-IPO, how should we view Gu Ming's current investment value?

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Dolphin Research

Guming Tea: How a 'Costco-Style' Supply Chain Strategy is Rewriting China’s Tea Industry Growth Playbook

Dolphin Research is taking you on a deep dive into the business secrets of four '10,000-store' tea beverage giants, focusing on two core themes: First, a 'hardcore' dissection of business models: What are the underlying logics of the franchise models of these four companies, and where do they differ? Is it the franchise fee, supply chain, or regional strategy? Second, predicting the 'winner' in the endgame: In the era of 10,000 stores, what are the key factors that determine victory? Whose model has the 'kingly' aspect? How does the future growth potential of Gu Ming look?

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