China’s independent model developer $MINIMAX-W(00100.HK) released its H1 results after the HK close on Aug 26. The company has been gradually losing ground in 2026.

Using Mar and Jun as key checkpoints, MiniMax has moved almost one-way down. Its market cap fell from $55bn to $13.5bn.

With the actual numbers now out, is it really that bad? Let’s take a closer look (for the earnings call Trans, click here): 1) Revenue: in a breakout year for coding...

ARR topped $800 mn in Aug., H1 revenue was $112 mn (+283% YoY), and GPM rose to 17.9% from 12.1%. Adj. net loss widened 112% YoY to $290 mn. Management unusually acknowledged shortcomings in judgment and execution in M3 R&D, and provided no launch timetable for M3.1 or M3 Pro.

In the business-model analysis 'Deep Dive into MiniMax and Zhipu: Are Foundation Models, Compute Intensity and Financing Stamina the Decider?', Dolphin Research argued that amid high costs and rapid iteration, the foundation-model industry has turned into a brutal test of financing endurance.

Old guard bows out, new contender steps in. Today, HK's 'hot pick' and China's independent model developer $MINIMAX-W(00100.HK) released its FY2025 report card. However, vs. a share price up 4.5x in two months, Dolphin Research's estimated Q4 print looks softer.

Below is Dolphin Research's MiniMax FY25 earnings call Trans.

A deep dive into Minimax and Zhipu: are large language models, compute intensity, and funding stamina the decisive edge? In early 2026, near the third anniversary of ChatGPT's launch, two leading Chinese AI model startups $MINIMAX-W(00100.HK) and $Z.AI(02513.HK) listed at around $6bn valuations.

Both stocks rallied after listing, driving a broad-based surge across AI application names. Yet a close read of their financials shows seemingly endless losses. On one hand, a brutal global price war in LLMs is turning the stack increasingly into a commodity...