Rocket Lab 2Q26 First Take: Overall, Rocket Lab delivered solid results this quarter. However, next-quarter guidance significantly missed on GPM and Adj. EBITDA, as follows:

① Total revenue reached $234 mn (+62% YoY). It beat market expectations.

Space Systems (revenue $189.5 mn, +94% YoY) was the primary growth engine. Growth was driven by the factors below.

a. Large constellation contracts such as SDA Tranche II/III entered peak delivery. Revenue recognized over time surged.

b. The consolidation of Mynaric and Motiv contributed, with Mynaric adding approx. $13.2 mn. It also helped close gaps in the laser comms supply chain.

Launch Services (revenue $44.6 mn, -4% YoY) saw softer reported growth. Launch count rose from five to six, but revenue recognition weighed on reported figures.

This quarter included two HASTE missions recognized via percentage-of-completion, with much of the revenue booked earlier, whereas last year’s pure Electron missions were recognized at launch. This diluted per-launch ASP from $9.3 mn to $7.4 mn.

② GPM beat in the quarter, but structural pressure emerged. Overall GAAP GPM was 36.1%, down 200 bps QoQ but above the 34% expected.

The sequential decline was mainly due to a higher mix of lower-margin (~30%) satellite bus deliveries, while mature, high-margin payload components (some 70%+) contributed less. This mix shift weighed on margins.

Additionally, Mynaric, fresh out of restructuring, had lower initial integration margins. Revenue carryover from HASTE missions also dragged profitability.

③ Opex continued to expand to fund future acceleration. The company is investing ahead of growth.

R&D expenses were about $82 mn (+25% YoY). Neutron’s impending maiden flight drove intensive hot-fire tests of the Archimedes engine, fairing tests, and system integration, lifting engineering payroll and test costs.

SG&A was about $60 mn (+50% YoY). Multiple strategic M&A initiatives (Iridium, Mynaric, and Motiv) led to elevated one-off legal, due diligence, and advisory fees.

Supported by higher absolute revenue and GPM, OP and Adj. EBITDA still beat estimates. The quarterly profit metrics benefited from the revenue and margin base.

④ 3Q26 GPM guidance points sharply lower. Management signaled a downshift in near-term profitability.

3Q26 GAAP GPM guidance of 29%-31% is well below the 36% the market expected. SDA, newly signed GEO satellites, and the FlatSatellite program are entering peak deliveries and early ramp in Q3, bringing process learning costs.

A lighter mix of higher-margin launch further adds structural drag.

With GPM guided well below expectations, Adj. EBITDA is projected at -$17 mn to -$23 mn. This is also below the -$12 mn the market expected.

⑤ Neutron maiden flight targeted for 4Q26, but delay risk remains. The timeline carries execution uncertainty.

For the Neutron program (benchmarked against SpaceX’s Falcon 9), the current baseline is to deliver the first-flight vehicle to the pad in 4Q26. The initial aim is to complete the maiden launch by end-2026.

Management also noted the year-end window is narrowing. New launch vehicle development entails complex technical uncertainties, and the maiden flight timing depends on subsequent Stage 1 qualification tests and other gates.

There is delay risk as the company deliberately balances first-flight schedule with rate-readiness. $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US)

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