Fed Announces Probability of Interest Rate Policy in June and July

Summary

CME FedWatch data indicates a 94.9% probability that the Fed will maintain rates in June and an 88.8% probability for July Zhitong. This follows April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000, which exceeded expectations despite a cooling trend Fidelity.

Impact Analysis

So, the market has basically thrown in the towel on a summer pivot. With June at 94.9% and July at 88.8% for a hold Zhitong, the ‘higher for longer’ narrative isn’t just a mantra anymore—it’s the baseline. The April NFP beat of 115k vs. the 65k expected Fidelity+ 2 really pulled the rug out from under the doves.

What’s catching my eye is the shifting subtext. We’re moving past ‘when cut?’ to ‘is 3.5% actually restrictive enough?’—especially with the AI spending boom and energy prices keeping a firm floor under inflation Dow Jones. Even Paul Tudor Jones is now floating the idea that a future Fed under Walsh might consider hikes CoinLive+ 2.

Bottom line: The labor market is in a ‘slow hire, slow fire’ equilibrium Fidelity, and with consumer credit still jumping Reuters, there’s zero urgency for the Fed to move. The trade here is staying cautious on the long end of the curve as the 10-year yield creeps toward 4.4% Dow Jones. Stick to quality equities that can handle a sustained cost of capital while the Fed stays sidelined.