Federal Reserve

Aug16

CME FedWatch shows a 66.9% probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September

The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 66.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in September 2026, a sharp reversal from the 73.6% hike probability seen in early August . This shift is fueled by cooling July inflation (CPI at 3.4%) and a surprise 0.6% drop in retail sales, pushing the S&P 500 to record highs and the dollar to three-month lows . Markets are now awaiting the July meeting minutes on August 20 for further direction .

8.2

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0 media sourcesAug 16, 2026 at 05:01 PM

Aug14

Fed September rate hike odds drop to 28.6% following weak economic data

Following a series of weak economic indicators, including a surprise 0.6% drop in July retail sales and cooling CPI data (3.4%), the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has plummeted to 28.6% . Market consensus has shifted heavily toward a pause (67.5%), as consumer confidence and labor market data also show signs of softening .

8.4

Aug12

Fed rate hike expectations for September drop to 38.1% following July CPI data

U.S. July CPI rose 3.4% YoY and 0.1% MoM, with core CPI at 2.5% YoY, both meeting expectations and confirming a two-month cooling trend . Following this and a weak non-farm payroll report, market expectations for a September rate hike dropped to 38.1%, with a 61.9% probability of rates remaining unchanged . This shift has boosted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 while providing liquidity relief to the Hong Kong tech sector .

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Aug07

U.S. rate futures cut chances of September rate hike after July jobs data

US non-farm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far missing the expected 83,000 increase . Consequently, interest rate futures now price the probability of a September hike at just 44%, down from being the base case, while the probability of a pause rose to 60.4% . Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield hitting a multi-week low of 4.204% .

8.4

LSEG

Aug06

Reuters Publishes Link to Detailed Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Information

Reuters has published the latest details and direct links to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet as of August 6, 2026, providing the market with updated data on the central bank's assets and liabilities .

8.2

TRI-2.32%

Aug02

CME Data Shows 73.6% Probability of Fed Rate Hike in September

CME FedWatch data indicates a 73.6% probability of a 25bps rate hike in September 2026, with cumulative hike expectations rising through October . This hawkish shift follows a July FOMC meeting marked by three rare dissenting votes favoring tighter policy . Markets are now pricing in higher yields, with gold struggling at the $4,000 mark and analysts revising 10-year Treasury targets upward to 4.85% .

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0 media sourcesAug 2, 2026 at 06:06 PM

Jul30

CME Data Shows High Probability of Fed Rate Hikes in September and October

CME FedWatch data indicates a sharp rise in rate hike expectations, with a 63.4% probability of a 25bps increase in September and a cumulative 73.2% chance of hikes by October . This shift follows a volatile week where September hike odds surged from 53% to over 80%, fueled by oil prices hitting $90/bbl and persistent energy inflation .

8.2

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0 media sourcesJul 30, 2026 at 05:08 PM

Jul29

Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, Three Officials Favor Hiking

On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting . However, the decision was marked by a significant 9-3 dissent, with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan voting for a 25-basis-point increase citing inflation concerns . This meeting, under Chair Kevin Warsh, reflected heightened internal debate over supply-side pressures and a reduction in forward guidance .

9.2

Fed FOMC passes latest rate decision with 9-3 vote

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting . However, the decision was marked by a significant 9-3 vote split, with regional presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissenting in favor of a 25-basis point hike due to persistent inflation and geopolitical risks from the war in Iran . This represents the most significant internal dissent since 2016 .

8.2

Jul26

Fed 63.7% Chance to Hold Rates in July, 55.2% for 25bp Hike by September

According to CME FedWatch, there is a 63.7% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in July, while the probability of a 25bps hike in September has risen to 55.2% . This shift is driven by oil prices exceeding $100, geopolitical tensions, and a resilient labor market . Market reactions include rising Treasury yields and downward pressure on gold and equities .

8.4

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0 media sourcesJul 26, 2026 at 06:20 PM

Jul16

CME Data Shows 88.8% Probability Fed Will Hold Rates Steady in July

CME FedWatch data shows the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July has surged to between 85.6% and 88.8% . This represents a sharp reversal from earlier in the week, when geopolitical tensions and oil price spikes pushed the implied probability of a 25bps hike to nearly 50% . The primary catalyst for this shift was the June CPI report, which came in cooler than expected at 3.5% .

8.2

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Jul10

Fed Report: Labor Market Stable, Wage Growth Robust, Productivity Strong

The Federal Reserve's semi-annual report describes a stable labor market where robust nominal wage growth is offset by strong productivity gains . While geopolitical tensions and tariffs have kept some inflation indicators high, the Fed noted that measures like the trimmed mean PCE have declined . The report specifically highlights AI investment as a driver for increased production capacity and efficiency .

8.2

Jul08

Fed Holds Rates Steady, Chinese Concept Stocks and HK Tech Sector Rise Against Trend

On July 9, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, stating that future policy depends on inflation data [citation:1, 13]. This sparked a rally in Chinese ADRs, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rising 2.05% and Alibaba surging 11.03% . Analysts suggest this reflects easing tightening expectations and a focus on Hong Kong tech valuations, which are currently at decade-low levels [citation:4, 14].

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0 media sourcesJul 8, 2026 at 08:16 PM

Jul07

CME Data Shows: Fed Has 73.3% Chance to Hold Rates in July, Rate Hike Expectations Rise for September

CME FedWatch data shows a 73.3% probability of the Fed maintaining rates in July, but expectations for a September hike have surged, with a 52.7% chance of a 25bps increase and a 14.9% chance of 50bps . While soft June payroll data initially cooled hawkishness, the June FOMC minutes revealed deep concerns regarding inflation fueled by AI investment and geopolitical tensions .

8.2

USDU-0.30%

Jul06

Fed 74.3% Probability of Keeping Rates Unchanged in July

As of July 7, CME FedWatch data indicates a 74.3% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in July, while the likelihood of a 25bps hike stands at 25.7% . However, expectations for September are shifting, with a cumulative 57% chance of a rate increase as officials cite inflation risks from AI investment and geopolitical tensions .

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Jul02

US June Hiring Slumps Sharply, Unemployment Drops But Recovery Momentum Fades

U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 57,000 jobs in June 2026, significantly missing expectations and following downward revisions to previous months [citation:33, 39, 41]. While the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, this was primarily due to a 0.3% drop in labor participation [citation:35, 46]. Leisure and hospitality saw their sharpest decline since 2020, even as healthcare remained a rare bright spot [citation:1, 34].

8.2

Jun30

Fed 7% probability of holding rates steady at 66.3%, 9% hike probability rises to 50%

As of July 1, 2026, CME FedWatch data indicates a 66.3% probability that the Fed will maintain current interest rates in July, while the probability of a 25bps hike by September has risen to 50% . This hawkish shift is largely attributed to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s policy stance and persistent core inflation concerns .

8.2

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Fed has 66.3% probability of holding rates steady in July

As of July 1, 2026, CME FedWatch data shows a 66.3% probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July, with a 33.7% chance of a 25bps hike . However, trader sentiment is shifting rapidly, with short positions in Fed Funds futures surging 30% since new Chair Kevin Warsh took office, driven by strong labor data and hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed President Hammack .

8.2

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0 media sourcesJun 30, 2026 at 05:51 PM

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