Federal Reserve

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2026

Jul16

CME Data Shows 88.8% Probability Fed Will Hold Rates Steady in July

CME FedWatch data shows the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July has surged to between 85.6% and 88.8% . This represents a sharp reversal from earlier in the week, when geopolitical tensions and oil price spikes pushed the implied probability of a 25bps hike to nearly 50% . The primary catalyst for this shift was the June CPI report, which came in cooler than expected at 3.5% .

8 sources

07/17/2026 06:57

Jul10

Fed Report: Labor Market Stable, Wage Growth Robust, Productivity Strong

The Federal Reserve's semi-annual report describes a stable labor market where robust nominal wage growth is offset by strong productivity gains . While geopolitical tensions and tariffs have kept some inflation indicators high, the Fed noted that measures like the trimmed mean PCE have declined . The report specifically highlights AI investment as a driver for increased production capacity and efficiency .

Jul09

Fed Holds Rates Steady, Chinese Concept Stocks and HK Tech Sector Rise Against Trend

On July 9, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, stating that future policy depends on inflation data [citation:1, 13]. This sparked a rally in Chinese ADRs, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rising 2.05% and Alibaba surging 11.03% . Analysts suggest this reflects easing tightening expectations and a focus on Hong Kong tech valuations, which are currently at decade-low levels [citation:4, 14].

2 sources

07/09/2026 09:16

Jul07

CME Data Shows: Fed Has 73.3% Chance to Hold Rates in July, Rate Hike Expectations Rise for September

CME FedWatch data shows a 73.3% probability of the Fed maintaining rates in July, but expectations for a September hike have surged, with a 52.7% chance of a 25bps increase and a 14.9% chance of 50bps . While soft June payroll data initially cooled hawkishness, the June FOMC minutes revealed deep concerns regarding inflation fueled by AI investment and geopolitical tensions .

8 sources

07/08/2026 06:36

Jul06

Fed 74.3% Probability of Keeping Rates Unchanged in July

As of July 7, CME FedWatch data indicates a 74.3% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in July, while the likelihood of a 25bps hike stands at 25.7% . However, expectations for September are shifting, with a cumulative 57% chance of a rate increase as officials cite inflation risks from AI investment and geopolitical tensions .

6 sourcesoutlets including Zaobao

07/07/2026 06:59

Jul02

US June Hiring Slumps Sharply, Unemployment Drops But Recovery Momentum Fades

U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 57,000 jobs in June 2026, significantly missing expectations and following downward revisions to previous months [citation:33, 39, 41]. While the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, this was primarily due to a 0.3% drop in labor participation [citation:35, 46]. Leisure and hospitality saw their sharpest decline since 2020, even as healthcare remained a rare bright spot [citation:1, 34].

Jun30

Fed 7% probability of holding rates steady at 66.3%, 9% hike probability rises to 50%

As of July 1, 2026, CME FedWatch data indicates a 66.3% probability that the Fed will maintain current interest rates in July, while the probability of a 25bps hike by September has risen to 50% . This hawkish shift is largely attributed to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s policy stance and persistent core inflation concerns .

8 sources

07/01/2026 07:39

Fed has 66.3% probability of holding rates steady in July

As of July 1, 2026, CME FedWatch data shows a 66.3% probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July, with a 33.7% chance of a 25bps hike . However, trader sentiment is shifting rapidly, with short positions in Fed Funds futures surging 30% since new Chair Kevin Warsh took office, driven by strong labor data and hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed President Hammack .

6 sources

07/01/2026 06:51

Jun17

Fed Raises 2026 Federal Funds Rate Target Median to 3.8%

The Federal Reserve updated its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), raising the median 2026 federal funds rate target to 3.8% from the 3.4% projected in March []. This shift follows a period of maintaining rates at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures driven by energy shocks and a tight labor market [].

Jun14

US November Jobs Data Misses Expectations, Unemployment Rises to 4.6%, Fed Rate Cut Delay Expected, S&P 500 Slides

In November, U.S. job growth slowed significantly to 64,000, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.6% following the conclusion of a government shutdown []. Despite the cooling labor market, hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials and uncertainty regarding the interest rate outlook led markets to slash December rate cut expectations from 95% to roughly 50% []. Consequently, major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced sharp declines as investors fled high-valuation AI and tech stocks [].

4 sources

06/14/2026 08:23

Jun09

CME Data Shows 98.2% Probability Fed Will Hold Rates Steady in June

CME FedWatch data indicates a 98.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% during its June 2026 meeting . While June is a near-certainty, market sentiment for July has shifted, with a 12.6% probability of a rate hike emerging following a 4.2% spike in May CPI and robust job growth .

8 sources

06/10/2026 06:57

May CPI Expected at 4.2%, Far Above Fed's 2% Target

Wall Street expects May 2026 CPI to hit 4.2%, a significant jump from April's 3.8% and more than double the Fed's 2% target . This surge is primarily driven by energy price spikes related to the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure, alongside persistent housing and service costs . Consequently, market expectations have pivoted sharply, with traders now pricing in up to an 80% chance of a rate hike by late 2026 .

Jun07

CME Data Shows 97% Probability Fed Will Hold Rates Steady in June

As of June 8, 2026, CME FedWatch data indicates a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in June, with only a 3% chance of a cut . For the July meeting, the probability of holding steady drops to 81.9%, while the likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike stands at 15.5% .

6 sources

06/08/2026 06:19

Jun01

CME Data Shows 98.4% Probability Fed Holds Rates Steady in June

CME FedWatch data indicates a 98.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in June, with a 90.2% chance of a hold continuing into July []. While immediate rate cuts are off the table, a small 8.4% probability of a rate hike has emerged for the July meeting [].

6 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

06/02/2026 06:08

Fed 99.4% Chance of Holding Rates Steady in June, 93% in July

CME FedWatch data shows a 99.4% probability of the Fed maintaining rates in June and a 93% probability for July . This reflects a sharp pivot from earlier expectations of rate cuts to a consensus of a prolonged pause, with some officials even suggesting potential hikes if inflation persists .

5 sources

05/29/2026 08:41

May26

CME Data Shows Fed Has Only 0.8% Chance of June Rate Cut, 11.3% Chance of July Hike

CME FedWatch data as of May 27, 2026, shows a 99.2% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in June, with a negligible 0.8% chance of a cut . More notably, the probability of a 25bps rate hike in July has climbed to 11.3%, reflecting growing market conviction that persistent inflation and economic resilience may necessitate further tightening .

7 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

05/27/2026 06:01

May21

Fed Minutes: Tightening Monetary Policy Possible if Inflation Remains High

The Federal Reserve's April meeting minutes reveal a hawkish shift, with officials warning that further interest rate hikes may be necessary if inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target . Concerns are centered on the 3.8% CPI rate and the Middle East conflict's impact on energy and shipping costs . Notably, the policy decision saw an 8-4 vote, the highest level of dissent since 1992 .

05/21/2026 12:45

8.2

10 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

05/21/2026 12:45