Federal Reserve

Fed-related news tracking

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Events

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2026

Jun30

Fed 7% probability of holding rates steady at 66.3%, 9% hike probability rises to 50%

As of July 1, 2026, CME FedWatch data indicates a 66.3% probability that the Fed will maintain current interest rates in July, while the probability of a 25bps hike by September has risen to 50% . This hawkish shift is largely attributed to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s policy stance and persistent core inflation concerns .

8 sources

07/01/2026 07:39

Fed has 66.3% probability of holding rates steady in July

As of July 1, 2026, CME FedWatch data shows a 66.3% probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July, with a 33.7% chance of a 25bps hike . However, trader sentiment is shifting rapidly, with short positions in Fed Funds futures surging 30% since new Chair Kevin Warsh took office, driven by strong labor data and hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed President Hammack .

6 sources

07/01/2026 06:51

Jun17

Fed Raises 2026 Federal Funds Rate Target Median to 3.8%

The Federal Reserve updated its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), raising the median 2026 federal funds rate target to 3.8% from the 3.4% projected in March []. This shift follows a period of maintaining rates at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures driven by energy shocks and a tight labor market [].

Jun14

US November Jobs Data Misses Expectations, Unemployment Rises to 4.6%, Fed Rate Cut Delay Expected, S&P 500 Slides

In November, U.S. job growth slowed significantly to 64,000, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.6% following the conclusion of a government shutdown []. Despite the cooling labor market, hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials and uncertainty regarding the interest rate outlook led markets to slash December rate cut expectations from 95% to roughly 50% []. Consequently, major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced sharp declines as investors fled high-valuation AI and tech stocks [].

4 sources

06/14/2026 08:23

Jun09

CME Data Shows 98.2% Probability Fed Will Hold Rates Steady in June

CME FedWatch data indicates a 98.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% during its June 2026 meeting . While June is a near-certainty, market sentiment for July has shifted, with a 12.6% probability of a rate hike emerging following a 4.2% spike in May CPI and robust job growth .

8 sources

06/10/2026 06:57

May CPI Expected at 4.2%, Far Above Fed's 2% Target

Wall Street expects May 2026 CPI to hit 4.2%, a significant jump from April's 3.8% and more than double the Fed's 2% target . This surge is primarily driven by energy price spikes related to the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure, alongside persistent housing and service costs . Consequently, market expectations have pivoted sharply, with traders now pricing in up to an 80% chance of a rate hike by late 2026 .

Jun07

CME Data Shows 97% Probability Fed Will Hold Rates Steady in June

As of June 8, 2026, CME FedWatch data indicates a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in June, with only a 3% chance of a cut . For the July meeting, the probability of holding steady drops to 81.9%, while the likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike stands at 15.5% .

6 sources

06/08/2026 06:19

Jun01

CME Data Shows 98.4% Probability Fed Holds Rates Steady in June

CME FedWatch data indicates a 98.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in June, with a 90.2% chance of a hold continuing into July []. While immediate rate cuts are off the table, a small 8.4% probability of a rate hike has emerged for the July meeting [].

6 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

06/02/2026 06:08

Fed 99.4% Chance of Holding Rates Steady in June, 93% in July

CME FedWatch data shows a 99.4% probability of the Fed maintaining rates in June and a 93% probability for July . This reflects a sharp pivot from earlier expectations of rate cuts to a consensus of a prolonged pause, with some officials even suggesting potential hikes if inflation persists .

5 sources

05/29/2026 08:41

May26

CME Data Shows Fed Has Only 0.8% Chance of June Rate Cut, 11.3% Chance of July Hike

CME FedWatch data as of May 27, 2026, shows a 99.2% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in June, with a negligible 0.8% chance of a cut . More notably, the probability of a 25bps rate hike in July has climbed to 11.3%, reflecting growing market conviction that persistent inflation and economic resilience may necessitate further tightening .

7 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

05/27/2026 06:01

May21

Fed Minutes: Tightening Monetary Policy Possible if Inflation Remains High

The Federal Reserve's April meeting minutes reveal a hawkish shift, with officials warning that further interest rate hikes may be necessary if inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target . Concerns are centered on the 3.8% CPI rate and the Middle East conflict's impact on energy and shipping costs . Notably, the policy decision saw an 8-4 vote, the highest level of dissent since 1992 .

05/21/2026 12:45

8.2

10 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

05/21/2026 12:45

May20

Fed Proposes New Limited Payment Accounts for Enterprises and Fintechs

The Federal Reserve has proposed a new limited payment account for fintechs and non-bank firms, granting access to the Fed's payment infrastructure without the full benefits of traditional banks, such as intraday credit, discount window access, or interest on reserves . This move follows an executive order from President Trump directing regulators to reduce barriers for financial innovation .

05/21/2026 04:00

8.4

4 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

05/21/2026 04:00

Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes

The April FOMC minutes revealed a significant hawkish shift, with officials discussing potential rate hikes if inflation persists above 2% . While rates were held at 3.50%-3.75%, the 8-4 vote split—the widest since 1992—underscores deep internal divisions . Concerns over Middle East tensions and high energy prices are driving the 'higher for longer' stance .

May19

Trump orders encouragement for Fed to expand fintech access

President Trump has issued an order encouraging the Federal Reserve to expand fintech access, a move aimed at preventing traditional banks from blocking the 'Digital Asset Market Clarity Act' and fostering institutional crypto adoption [][]. This follows a reported shift in Trump’s personal portfolio toward tech and crypto investments in Q1 2026 [].

Interest Rate Swaps Show Over 80% Probability of Fed Hiking by End of 2026

Interest rate swaps now indicate an 80% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by the end of 2026 []. This shift is driven by April CPI rising to 3.8% [], soaring oil prices above $109 due to the Iran conflict [], and projections of Q2 inflation annualizing at 6.89% [].

05/19/2026 22:33

8.2

7 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

05/19/2026 22:33

May13

NY Fed Plans for Repurchase and Reserve Management Purchases

The New York Fed announced that from May 14 to June 11, 2026, it will conduct approximately $16.3 billion in reinvestment purchases and $10 billion in reserve management purchases . This represents a notable decrease from the previous month's $25 billion reserve management target .

3 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

05/14/2026 03:10

May12

Traders Adjust Expectations for Fed Rate Hike by Year-End

Traders have reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end to 25%, down from 33%, following data showing consumer prices rose 3.8% annually . This shift follows a period of heightened hawkishness where markets were pricing in aggressive moves ahead of leadership transitions .

05/12/2026 20:43

8.2

4 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

05/12/2026 20:43

May11

Fed Maintains Rates Unchanged in June with 97.7% Probability

As of May 12, 2026, CME FedWatch data shows a 97.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% in June []. This follows an April meeting where the Fed held steady despite a highly divided 8-4 vote—the most contentious since 1992—driven by concerns over $100+ oil prices and 3.3% CPI inflation [].

05/12/2026 07:07

8.8

7 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

05/12/2026 07:07