CME Data Shows 98.2% Probability Fed Will Hold Rates Steady in June

Summary

CME FedWatch data indicates a 98.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in June 2026, while the probability of a hold in July stands at 85.8%, with a notable 12.6% chance of a rate hike Golden Finance.

Impact Analysis

So, the market is treating the June FOMC meeting as a total non-event with a 98.2% hold probability Golden Finance. But look closer at the July signals—the 12.6% chance of a hike is the real story . This suggests the ‘higher for longer’ narrative isn’t just sticky; it might be turning hawkish again. For CME Group, this uncertainty is a massive tailwind. They already hit record trading volumes in May StockTitan, and as long as the market remains split on July, hedging activity will stay elevated. While the stock has faced some valuation skepticism recently Simplywall, the underlying business is feasting on this volatility. I’m also keeping an eye on their new computing power futures Zhitong—it’s a smart strategic pivot to capture AI infrastructure risk. Bottom line: Don’t get bored by the June pause. The real action is the widening volatility tail for Q3, which makes CME a solid volume play even if the stock price looks a bit rich right now.