According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Soochow Securities released a research report stating that the total sales of the forklift industry in 2024 will reach 1.29 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10%. Among them, domestic sales will be 810,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and export sales will be 480,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Since the end of September 2024, the intensity of macro policy counter-cyclical adjustments has increased, with monetary and fiscal policies being implemented successively. The &#34;two 重&#34; and &#34;two 新&#34; policies in 2025 will continue to strengthen and expand, supporting comprehensive domestic demand expansion and sustaining economic recovery. In Q3 2024, leading companies Toyota and Kion saw new orders decrease by 3% and increase by 2% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a narrowing decline or a return to positive growth, which may reflect a stabilization in demand. In Q4 2024, domestic raw material prices are expected to remain low and fluctuate, while overseas revenue growth will passively increase in proportion, allowing forklift companies to maintain a high profit margin.
<h2>The main points of Soochow Securities are as follows:</h2>
In December, domestic and foreign forklift sales increased by 10% and 15% year-on-year, respectively, with exports leading the growth.
In December 2024, the total sales of the forklift industry reached 111,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12%. Among them, domestic sales were 67,000 units, up 10% year-on-year and 11% month-on-month, while export sales were 44,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 15% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.3%. Benefiting from the implementation of counter-cyclical adjustment policies, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic sales in December has somewhat recovered, while exports continue to show a growth trend: the PMI in December was 50.1%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.2 percentage points, the logistics industry prosperity index was 53.1%, a month-on-month increase of 0.3 percentage points, and the warehousing index was 50.6%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.8 percentage points, all remaining within the prosperous range.
The total sales of the forklift industry in 2024 will reach 1.29 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10%. Among them, domestic sales will be 810,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and export sales will be 480,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Since the end of September 2024, the intensity of macro policy counter-cyclical adjustments has increased, with monetary and fiscal policies being implemented successively. The &#34;two 重&#34; and &#34;two 新&#34; policies in 2025 will continue to strengthen and expand, supporting comprehensive domestic demand expansion and sustaining economic recovery. The prosperity of the forklift industry, the progress of electrification transformation, and the activity level of the macro economy are directly linked to the prosperity of the manufacturing and logistics industries, and a subsequent trend of domestic demand recovery can be expected.
Benefiting from product structure optimization, the sector's performance growth is steady.
In the first three quarters of 2024, the forklift sector maintained steady growth. On the revenue side, due to the decline in the prosperity of domestic manufacturing and reduced demand for large vehicles, the growth rate has slowed. On the profit side, benefiting from high-margin overseas business and an increased proportion of electric vehicles, the growth rate significantly outperformed revenue. In the first three quarters of 2024, the forklift sector achieved revenue of 31.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%. In the first three quarters of 2024, the sector's gross profit margin was 22.3%, a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 10.2%, a year-on-year increase of 1.1 percentage points. The high-margin overseas business (with a gross margin difference of about 6-9 percentage points between domestic and overseas for various companies) and the increased proportion of electric large vehicles, along with a year-on-year decline in the prices of raw materials such as steel, have improved the profitability of the forklift sector.
The prosperity level is bottoming out, and demand recovery can be expected after the promotion of domestic policies and the digestion of overseas channel inventories.
The demand in the forklift industry comes from (1) the growth in investment scale in the manufacturing and logistics sectors, leading to an increased demand for handling tools, and (2) rising labor costs, with factories and warehouses requiring higher work efficiency, resulting in a trend of machines replacing human labor. From 2014 to 2023, the global forklift sales CAGR was 7%, with domestic and overseas rates at 13% and 4%, respectively.
In the short term, the domestic industry is bottoming out, with annual sales of 800,000 units primarily driven by replacement demand; overseas demand is weak, and the growth rate of new orders in the industry has declined for more than two years (2022-2024), with a particularly noticeable decline in the U.S. market. In Q3 2024, leading companies Toyota and KION saw new orders change year-on-year by -3% and +2%, respectively, indicating a narrowing decline or a return to growth, which may reflect a stabilization in demand. In Q4 2024, domestic raw material prices are expected to remain low and fluctuate, and the growth of overseas revenue, which is passively increasing in proportion, is likely to allow forklift companies to maintain a high profit margin.
In the medium to long term, there is still room for improvement in the lithium battery penetration rate both domestically and internationally, which will assist in structural optimization and overseas expansion. In 2023, the lithium battery penetration rates (the proportion of lithium battery-powered forklifts among all forklifts) were 19% and 13% for domestic and overseas markets, respectively, indicating significant potential for growth. The market is concerned about tariff risks in the U.S., estimating that the U.S. market accounts for about 12% of global sales and 18% of scale, and its demand for electric vehicles is weaker than that of the core European market, with the dual leaders in the U.S. accounting for less than 10% of revenue, making the actual impact manageable. Additionally, as the age of forklifts sold overseas since 2021 increases, after-market services will create new growth points following new machine sales.
Risk Warning: Deterioration of industry competition, geopolitical conflicts, fluctuations in raw material prices

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Soochow Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that the forklift industry sales are expected to reach 1.29 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10%. Among them, domestic sales are 810,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and export sales are 480,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 19%. In December, forklift sales were 111,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12%, with domestic sales and exports growing by 10% and 15%, respectively. Benefiting from the counter-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, the forklift industry's prosperity and profit margins are expected to remain at a high level

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NOBLELIFT

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AHHL

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Toyota Motor

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Dayu Irrigation

CORUN

DMEGC

TM ADR US

NARADA

Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.: Forklift sales in December 2024 are expected to increase by 12% year-on-year, with exports leading the growth