According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that in Q4 2024, the proportion of heavy positions in the food and beverage sector among actively managed equity funds is 7.51%, continuing a downward trend. Specifically, the performance of various sub-sectors in food and beverage shows divergence, with the top three increases being: snacks, soft drinks, and beer. The largest decrease is in the liquor sector, but in terms of absolute proportion, the capital allocation in liquor remains relatively concentrated. The firm believes that with the release of demand resilience during the Spring Festival, the marginal recovery of channel confidence in liquor can be observed, and attention can be paid to the replenishment situation after the festival. In terms of consumer goods, focus on product innovation and supply chain optimization, as mergers and acquisitions are expected to improve the competitive landscape, and traditional industries are likely to reasonably enhance industry concentration through restructuring.
<h2>The main points of Minsheng Securities are as follows:</h2>
This report counts the holdings of four types of representative actively managed equity funds: ordinary stock funds, equity hybrid funds, balanced hybrid funds, and flexible allocation funds, analyzing the changes in holdings in the food and beverage sector. Passive index funds and enhanced index funds are not included in this statistical scope.
Industry level: ① In Q4 2024, the proportion of heavy positions in the food and beverage sector among actively managed equity funds is 7.51%, continuing a downward trend, ranking fourth among Shenwan's first-level industries, following electronics (13.41%), power equipment (10.81%), and pharmaceuticals and biology (10.71%), with a quarter-on-quarter decline of -0.66 percentage points, more than halved from the pre-2019 Q2 peak of 17.82%, with positions falling back to levels seen in Q2 2017. ② In Q4 2024, the performance of various sub-sectors in food and beverage shows divergence: the liquor sector (Shenwan second-level) has a market value proportion of 5.73% among fund heavy positions, down -1.24 percentage points; among the third-level sub-sectors excluding liquor, the top three increases are: snacks (+0.15 percentage points), soft drinks (+0.14 percentage points), and beer (+0.13 percentage points). The largest decrease is in liquor, but in terms of absolute proportion, the capital allocation in liquor remains relatively concentrated.
Individual stock level: ① In Q4 2024, six of the top ten heavy positions in the food and beverage sector are liquor stocks, down one from the previous quarter. The top ten liquor stocks in order from high to low are: Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, and Yanghe Brewery, while Yingjia Gongjiu has dropped out of the top ten. Among the remaining four positions, the beer sector's Tsingtao Brewery A+H shares occupy two positions, with the other two being dairy company Yili and soft drink company Dongpeng Beverage; ② Yili has the highest increase, while Kweichow Moutai has the highest decrease. Measured by the change in the proportion of individual stock market value among fund heavy positions within the quarter, the top three increases in the food and beverage sector in Q4 2024 are: Yili, Tsingtao Brewery, Dongpeng Beverage; the top three decreases are: Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu. ③ Consumer goods targets with improved fundamentals and enhanced channel efficiency have been added to institutional heavy positions.
Investment recommendations: ① Liquor: Inventory reduction is underway, with the release of demand resilience during the Spring Festival leading to a marginal recovery in channel confidence; attention can be paid to the replenishment situation after the festival. Recommended brands include Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH), which has a moat and sufficient volume-price tools, Wuliangye (000858.SZ), which is firm on volume control during peak seasons and is a necessity in the thousand-yuan government and business price range, and Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH), a leading brand in the cyclical mid-to-high-end market expected to break through barriers; attention is also recommended for the competitive landscape of the real estate liquor sector, with a recommendation for Yingjia Gongjiu, which shows a continuing upward structural trend, and Jinshiyuan, which has a slowing competitive landscape and increasing penetration rate
② Beer: The trend of premiumization continues, and the recovery of on-the-go consumption scenarios is expected to drive the industry to achieve both volume and price increases in 2025. We recommend Qingdao Brewery (600600.SH) for its revenue elasticity due to its young product lineup, scenario recovery, and proactive actions from the new management team; Yanjing Brewery (000729.SZ) for its solid foundation of big product dividends and improved organizational efficiency leading to strong profit alpha.
③ Consumer Goods: Focus on product innovation and supply chain optimization, as mergers and acquisitions are expected to improve the competitive landscape. Traditional industries are likely to reasonably enhance industry concentration through restructuring. We recommend Three Squirrels (300783.SZ) for its channel dividends, category extension, and benefits from New Year gift boxes; Yili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH) as a leading dairy company supported by improved industry supply and demand and high dividends; Yihai International for its expected recovery in domestic demand and channel restoration; and Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) for its high category prosperity and benefits from channel penetration.
Risk Warning: Adjustments to restrictive industry policies for liquor exceed expectations, the pace of recovery in consumption scenarios and the effectiveness of related stimulus policies fall short of expectations, prices of bulk raw materials rise beyond expectations, company reform progress is slower than expected, retail brand product substitution diverts sales, downstream demand recovery is weaker than expected, and food safety risks

80291

00291

000729

600600

00168

Minsheng Securities released a research report showing that in Q4 2024, the proportion of heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector among active equity funds is 7.51%, continuing to decline. Among the sub-sectors, snacks, soft drinks, and beer have seen significant increases in holdings, while the reduction in holdings for liquor is the largest, although its capital allocation remains relatively concentrated. The report points out that with the recovery of demand for liquor during the Spring Festival, channel confidence has somewhat restored, and future attention can be paid to the post-holiday replenishment situation. Overall, the positioning in the food and beverage industry has fallen back to the level of the second quarter of 2017

Zhitong

CHINA RES BEER-R

CHINA RES BEER

Yanjing Brewery

Tsingtao Brewery

TSINGTAO BREW

Moutai

YILI

Yanghe

Gu Jing

EASTROC BEVERAGE

YIHAI INTL

Three Squirrels

SHANXI FEN WINE

King’s Luck

YINGJIAGONGJIU

LZLJ

Minsheng Securities Food and Beverage 24Q4 Fund Position Analysis: The Proportion of Heavy Holdings in Liquor Continues to Shrink, While the Proportion of Snacks, Soft Drinks, and Beer Increases