China Postal Securities: Maintains "Buy" Rating on NCIC, with Rapid Growth in Performance in the First Half of the Year

Zhongyou Securities research report points out that NCIC's revenue growth and gross profit improvement led to rapid performance growth in the first half of the year. The company achieved a net profit attributable to the parent of 30 million yuan in Q1 2025, and the estimated single-quarter profit for Q2 2025 is expected to be between 68 million and 81 million yuan, showing a significant quarter-on-quarter increase and highlighting a performance turning point. The company's operational target for 2025 is to achieve revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, with an expected year-on-year growth of 34%, and a total profit of 140 million yuan. It is believed that based on the current operational situation, the company is highly likely to exceed the annual profit target. It is expected that the domestic export price of nitrocellulose may further rise in the future, and the company's market share is expected to increase further. According to statistics, there are currently 431 fireworks and firecracker production enterprises in Liuyang, with the firecracker industry achieving a total output value of 50.22 billion yuan in 2024, holding about 60% of the domestic market share and accounting for about 70% of national exports, indicating a huge market space for nitrocellulose to replace black gunpowder used in fireworks. In addition, the company's protective equipment and industrial pump business are expected to grow. The company emphasizes both organic and external development, with strong profitability. Maintain a "Buy" rating