According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Kaiyuan Securities released a research report stating that the sales of commercial housing from January to June 2025 amounted to 4.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% (compared to -3.8% from January to May), with the sales of commercial residential properties down by 5.2% year-on-year. In June, the national sales area and amount of commercial housing decreased by 5.5% and 10.8% year-on-year, respectively, marking the largest monthly sales decline since September 2024; the average monthly sales price fell by 5.6% year-on-year, and there were signs of price reductions and promotions during the semi-annual sprint month, with market transactions showing a trend of exchanging price for volume, while there remains certain pressure on stabilizing housing prices. From January to June 2025, real estate development investment amounted to 4.67 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2% (compared to -10.7% from January to May), with residential development investment down by 10.4% year-on-year, and the decline continues to widen, as the decrease in new construction data and insufficient sales returns from real estate companies continue to affect investment willingness.
<h2>Key points from Kaiyuan Securities are as follows:</h2>
June sales data shows weakness, with differentiated market heat across cities
The National Bureau of Statistics released data on commercial housing investment and sales from January to June 2025. From January to June, the national sales area of commercial housing was 459 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5% (compared to -2.9% from January to May), with the sales area of commercial residential properties down by 3.7% year-on-year; the sales amount of commercial housing was 4.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% (compared to -3.8% from January to May), with the sales amount of commercial residential properties down by 5.2% year-on-year. In June 2025, the national sales area and amount of commercial housing decreased by 5.5% and 10.8% year-on-year, respectively, marking the largest monthly sales decline since September 2024; the average monthly sales price fell by 5.6% year-on-year, and there were signs of price reductions and promotions during the semi-annual sprint month, with market transactions showing a trend of exchanging price for volume, while there remains certain pressure on stabilizing housing prices.
Regionally, from January to June, the year-on-year growth rates of commercial housing sales area in the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions were -5.2%, -1.2%, -2.5%, and -6.0%, respectively, with the central region performing relatively well. According to the transaction data tracked by Kaiyuan Securities in key cities, the growth rates of new home transaction area in first-tier, second-tier, and third-fourth tier cities in the first 24 weeks of 2025 were +7.3%, -2.2%, and -4.2%, respectively, with higher transaction heat in high-energy cities.
Decline in new construction data narrows, but completion area still declines year-on-year
From January to June 2025, the national new construction area of housing was 304 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.0% (compared to -22.8% from January to May), with residential new construction down by 10.4%, and the decline has narrowed. The transaction area of residential land in 322 cities tracked by Kaiyuan Securities decreased by 13% year-on-year in 2024, and from January to June 2025, it decreased by 5% year-on-year, with reduced land acquisition likely to continue affecting new construction data for the entire year. From January to June, the completion area of housing was 226 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.8% (compared to -17.3% from January to May), with residential completion area down by 15.5% year-on-year, and the decline has narrowed. Considering the decline in new construction area exceeding 20% in 2022-2023, it is expected that the completion area in 2025 will still face downward pressure
The decline in real estate development investment has widened, and the growth rate of domestic loans for real estate companies has turned positive
From January to June 2025, the real estate development investment amounted to 4.67 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2% (compared to -10.7% from January to May), with residential development investment down 10.4% year-on-year, indicating a continued widening of the decline. The decrease in new construction data and insufficient sales collections from real estate companies continue to affect investment willingness. From January to June 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises totaled 5.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% (compared to -5.3% from January to May). Among these, domestic loans, self-raised funds, deposits and advance payments, and personal mortgage loans changed year-on-year by +0.6%, -7.2%, -7.5%, and -11.4% respectively (compared to -1.7%, -7.2%, -5.0%, and -8.5% from January to May). Except for domestic loans which turned positive year-on-year, the decline in funds from other channels has widened. Under the pressure of weak sales data, real estate companies still face significant pressure regarding self-raised funds and sales collections.
Investment Suggestions
June is the month for real estate companies to sprint for semi-annual performance, and under the backdrop of price reductions and promotions, monthly sales data has weakened. According to the transaction data tracked in key cities for the first two weeks of July, the transaction area of commercial housing in first-tier, second-tier, and third-fourth tier cities changed by -15.7%, +2.6%, and +16.3% respectively. July and August are traditional off-peak sales months, and it is expected that under the low base from the same period in 2024, the sales data in the third quarter is likely to continue the trend of weak recovery.
Recommended Targets
Real estate companies with strong credit that have a good fundamental layout in cities and are adept at capturing the needs of improvement-type customers: Greentown China (03900), China Merchants Shekou (001979.SZ), China Overseas Land &amp; Investment (00688), C&amp;D INC. (600153.SH), Binjiang Group (002244.SZ), C&amp;D International Group (01908); dual-driven by residential and commercial real estate, benefiting from both real estate recovery and consumption promotion policies: China Resources Land (01109), Xincheng Holdings (601155.SH), Longfor Group (00960); high-quality property management targets with outstanding service quality under the &#34;Good House, Good Service&#34; policy: China Resources Vientiane Life (01209), Greentown Service (02869), Poly Property (06049), CMPO (001914.SZ), Binjiang Service (03316), C&amp;D Property (02156).
Risk Warning
Industry sales recovery may fall short of expectations, financing improvements may not meet expectations, and the financial risks for real estate companies may further increase; policy relaxation may not meet expectations

02869

001979

002244

001914

02925

01109

600153

KaiYuan Securities released a research report indicating that the sales of commercial housing from January to June 2025 amounted to 4.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%. The sales data in June showed weakness, with the monthly sales area and amount decreasing by 5.5% and 10.8% year-on-year, respectively, marking the largest decline since September 2024. The investment in real estate development was 4.67 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%. It is expected that the sales data in the third quarter will continue the trend of weak recovery, and housing prices will face pressure to stabilize

Zhitong

GREENTOWN SER

Cmsk

Binjiang Group

CMPO

WANJIAGROUP RTS

CHINA RES LAND

C&D INC.

Open Source Securities: From January to June, the performance of real estate sales weakened, and the growth rate of domestic loans for real estate companies turned positive