According to the Zhitong Finance APP, China Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that in June 2025, the monthly sales area was 105.3581 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 49.37% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.46%; the newly started construction area in June was 71.8 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 34.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.39%; the completed area in June was 41.82 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 52.77% and a year-on-year decline of 1.74%. The year-on-year performance of both the start and completion in June showed improvement compared to the first five months, with the year-on-year decline in completions significantly narrowing. With the July urban work conference once again mentioning new models in real estate, urban village renovations, and the renovation of dilapidated houses, the real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize. With the support of policies, the allocation value of the real estate sector is highlighted.
<h2>The main viewpoints of China Galaxy Securities are as follows:</h2>
Sales: Year-on-year performance under pressure
In the first six months of 2025, the national sales area of commercial housing was 45.851 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.50%, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first five months of 2025. In June 2025, the monthly sales area was 10.53581 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 49.37% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.46%. In the first six months of 2025, the national sales amount of commercial housing was 442.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.50%, with the decline expanding by 1.70 percentage points compared to the previous month. In June 2025, the monthly sales amount was 101.5016 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 43.85% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.79%. The average sales price for the first six months was 9,649 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.07% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.05%; the average sales price in June was 9,634 yuan per square meter, a month-on-month decrease of 3.70% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.64%.
China Galaxy Securities pointed out that policies such as reducing the down payment ratio to stimulate real estate demand were introduced in mid-May last year, which affected the base, leading to the year-on-year pressure on sales area in June. With the July urban work conference once again mentioning new models in real estate, urban village renovations, and the renovation of dilapidated houses, the real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize.
Investment: Year-on-year performance of starts and completions has improved compared to before
In the first six months of 2025, real estate development investment was 466.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.20%, with the decline expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month; in June, the monthly development investment was 104.24 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 22.58% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.90%.
Starts: In the first six months of 2025, new starts were 30.364 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.00%, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to the first five months of 2025; in June 2025, the monthly new start area was 7.18 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 34.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.39%. Completions: In the first six months of 2025, the completed area was 22.567 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.80%, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 2.50 percentage points compared to the previous month; in June, the monthly completed area was 4.182 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 52.77% and a year-on-year decline of 1.74%. The year-on-year performance of both starts and completions has improved compared to the first five months, with the year-on-year decline in completions significantly narrowing.
Funding: Domestic loans have cumulatively decreased year-on-year
In the first six months before 2025, the funds available to real estate companies amounted to 50,202 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.20%, with the decline rate expanding by 0.90 percentage points compared to the first five months before 2025. Among them, domestic loans in the first six months were 8,245 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.60%; self-raised funds were 17,544 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.20%; deposits and advance payments were 14,781 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.50%; personal mortgage loans were 6,847 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.40%. Among the sources of funds for real estate companies, the cumulative year-on-year growth of domestic loans has turned positive again.
Targets
Positive outlook: Cmsk (001979.SZ), PDH (600048.SH), CHINA RES LAND (01209), Binjiang Group (002244.SZ), Xincheng Holdings (601155.SH), CMPO (001914.SZ), Longfor Group (00960); suggested to pay attention to: 1) Quality developers: GREENTOWN CHINA (03900), CHINA RES LAND (01109), China Overseas Development (00688): 2) Quality property management: GREENTOWN SER (02869); 3) Quality commercial: Hang Lung Properties (00101); 4) Leading construction agency: GREENTOWN MANAGEMENT HOLDINGS (09979); 5) Leading intermediaries: Beike-W (02423), 5i5j (000560.SZ).
Risk Warning
Risks of policy support falling short of expectations, risks of city-specific policies not meeting expectations, risks of macroeconomic performance not meeting expectations, risks of funds not being in place as expected, risks of significant fluctuations in housing prices

000560

02925

01109

02869

001979

001914

600048

China Galaxy Securities released a research report indicating that in June 2025, the sales area of real estate decreased by 5.46% year-on-year, but increased by 49.37% month-on-month. The area of construction starts and completions showed some recovery year-on-year, with a significant narrowing of the decline in completions. With policy support, the real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize after a decline. In the first six months, the national sales area of commercial housing was 45.851 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.50%

Zhitong

5i5j

WANJIAGROUP RTS

CHINA RES LAND

GREENTOWN SER

Cmsk

CMPO

China Galaxy Securities: June property sales under pressure year-on-year, construction starts and completions recover