According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Huaxi Securities released a research report stating that the technology level of AGVs (Automated Guided Vehicles) and unmanned forklifts has become relatively mature. The rapid development of AI large models is expected to significantly enhance the perception capabilities of AGVs, helping them transition from indoor to outdoor environments, which will lead to explosive growth for AGVs and unmanned forklifts. In 2024, the penetration rate of unmanned forklifts in China is projected to be 2.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. As unmanned forklifts break through technological singularities and gradually move outdoors, their penetration rate will accelerate. AGVs and unmanned forklifts are nearing technological singularities, and demand is about to surge.
<h2>The main points of Huaxi Securities are as follows:</h2>
Unmanned forklifts are a branch of AGVs
AGV stands for Automated Guided Vehicle, which is a type of transport vehicle powered by batteries and equipped with automatic navigation modules such as electromagnetic, visual, and laser systems. It can autonomously travel along planned routes, featuring safety protection and various transfer functions, and is a type of industrial robot. AGVs can autonomously drive according to commands from a backend robot control system, reaching designated locations to complete tasks such as transportation, sorting, and assembly. Based on structural classification, AGVs are mainly divided into four categories: lurking type, fork type (i.e., unmanned forklifts), container type, and composite type. Among these, lurking type and fork type AGVs are the most widely used, while composite AGVs have significant application potential.
AGV and unmanned forklift technology is relatively mature, and AI large models are expected to significantly enhance their intelligence levels
AGVs need to solve three core questions: &#34;Where am I?&#34;, &#34;Where do I want to go?&#34;, and &#34;How do I get there?&#34; Navigation and positioning are the core technologies of AGVs. Currently, the most widely used navigation methods in the industry are QR codes and SLAM (Simultaneous Localization and Mapping), while future development will focus on hybrid SLAM technology based on multi-sensor fusion. Perception capability is an important manifestation of the intelligence level of AGVs. By equipping various sensors, AGVs can perceive their surrounding environment. The controller is the core of AGVs; currently, there are dedicated controllers for AGVs that are responsible for human-machine interaction, path planning, task execution, positioning and navigation control, power management, autonomous obstacle avoidance, safety information prompts, and communication with AGV management and monitoring computers to report the current status of AGVs and receive scheduling and work instructions from the AGV management and monitoring system. The technology level of AGVs and unmanned forklifts is relatively mature, and the rapid development of AI large models is expected to significantly enhance the perception capabilities of AGVs, expanding their understanding of the surrounding environment from mere obstacles to semantic information, evolving from &#34;seeing&#34; to &#34;understanding,&#34; truly achieving autonomous planning, autonomous movement, and autonomous operation, facilitating the transition of AGVs from indoor to outdoor environments, which will lead to explosive growth for AGVs and unmanned forklifts.
The domestic AGV market exceeds 20 billion, with unmanned forklift penetration rate at only 2%
According to data from the Mobile Robot Industry Alliance, the global AGV market size was approximately USD 4.75 billion in 2022, and the AGV market size in China is projected to be CNY 22.1 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a three-year CAGR of 21% from 2022 to 2024. In 2024, the sales volume of unmanned forklifts in China is expected to reach 22,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 44%, with a three-year CAGR of 52% from 2022 to 2024
In 2024, the penetration rate of unmanned forklifts in China is expected to be 2.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. As unmanned forklifts break through technological singularities and gradually move from indoor to outdoor applications, the penetration rate will accelerate.
The competitive landscape is uncertain, with many entrants
China's AGV industry has been developing for over 30 years since it truly started in the 1990s, during which many AGV manufacturing companies have emerged, roughly categorized into three types: AGV specialized manufacturers (including Hikvision Robotics, GEEKPLUS, and Siasun Robot &amp; Automation), traditional forklift manufacturers (including AHHL, HANGCHA GROUP, Zhongli Group, and NOBLELIFT), and new force companies (including Lanjian Intelligent, NTI, Huari Technology, and Raysun Intelligent). The industry is still in the early stages of development, with an uncertain competitive landscape and many entrants.
Risk Warning: Risks of AGV and unmanned forklift technology advancements falling short of expectations, risks of worsening industry competition, and risks of macroeconomic fluctuations

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Huaxi Securities released a research report indicating that unmanned forklift technology is nearing maturity, and it is expected that the penetration rate of unmanned forklifts in China will reach 2.2% by 2024. With technological breakthroughs, unmanned forklifts will expand from indoor applications to outdoor use, leading to significant growth in demand. AGV (Automated Guided Vehicle), as a branch of unmanned forklifts, possesses autonomous navigation and various functions, and will enhance its intelligence level through AI technology in the future, ushering in explosive growth

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Huaxi Securities: Unmanned forklifts are approaching a technological singularity, with penetration rates accelerating and demand about to surge