Guosen Securities: Inefficient supply chains force industry transformation, and the industrialization of the catering sector welcomes dual drivers

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guosen Securities released a research report stating that the Chinese catering supply chain industry is currently facing an efficiency revolution. Since 2020, the capital market's catering supply chain sector has seen a continuous rise in prosperity, with the Wind Condiment/Prepared Dish Concept Index growing by 88%/82% from March 2019 to May 2021. The pre-preparation of ingredients and the snackification of catering have become the two core directions driving the industry's development. The firm recommends Anjoy Food (603345.SH), qianweiyangchu (001215.SZ), Lihigh Food (300973.SZ), WeLong Delicious (09985), and Yanjinpuzi (002847.SZ). Guosen Securities' main viewpoints are as follows: Inefficient supply chains struggle to meet upgrading demands, prompting the catering supply chain industry to initiate an efficiency revolution Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has continued to grow, and consumption levels have risen. From 2010 to 2024, the CAGR of catering revenue is approximately 8.6%. By March 2025, the total number of catering stores nationwide is expected to approach 8 million. The current catering market is still dominated by small and medium-sized operators, with a chain rate of only about 20.1% in 2024. Traditional ingredient supply chains face issues such as high costs, difficulty in standardization, and low quality, necessitating a more efficient supply chain system. Therefore, since 2020, the capital market's catering supply chain sector has seen a continuous rise in prosperity, with the Wind Condiment/Prepared Dish Concept Index growing by 88%/82% from March 2019 to May 2021. Direction One: Ingredient Pre-preparation - The Pioneer of Catering Supply Chain Standardization The catering supply chain involves multiple links, including the procurement, processing, storage, and distribution of catering raw materials to final consumer services. Ingredient pre-preparation is essentially the extension of industrial production models into the food sector. China's catering supply chain market is vast, approximately 2.4 trillion yuan, and by April 2025, the number of production and processing enterprises is expected to reach 890,000, with a fragmented market structure in the early stages of scale competition. Scaled production is a core competitive factor in the processing link, and some traditional frozen food manufacturers, represented by Anjoy and Sanquan, have established barriers to national production capacity. Direction Two: Snackification of Catering - Extension of Consumption Scenarios With changes in consumer lifestyles and dietary expectations, food consumption is becoming increasingly fragmented and personalized. The snackification of catering is specifically manifested in product lightweighting, breaking spatial limitations, retailing, extending consumption scenarios, and continuous innovation of new products. Categories such as crayfish, marinated dishes, and vegetables have already achieved ready-to-eat status. Emerging channels are on the rise, with community supermarkets/convenience stores/snack discounts growing at rates of 10%/11%/76% in 2023, with product forms such as frozen baking, French fries, and small crispy meat helping emerging channels meet consumer demands more accurately and efficiently. Benchmarking Overseas: Closely Related to Residents' Lifestyles, Leading Enterprises Grow with the Times The scale of the U.S. catering supply chain was approximately $382 billion in 2022. Sysco formed a product matrix of 400,000 SKUs through over 200 acquisitions, achieving revenue of $78.8 billion in 2024, serving global catering clients. Japan's frozen prepared food industry has entered a mature stage, with Kobe Bussan implementing a vertically integrated model of production and sales, achieving a 12% compound revenue growth, becoming a benchmark for cost-effective franchise chains in Japan Dual-Driven Evolution of Food Industrialization: Companies Need to Insight Demand and Embrace Change With the current changes in the economic environment, the catering supply chain industry has entered a new stage. Inefficient producers are under significant survival pressure. It is expected that the supply side of the industry will gradually optimize, and the capacity, capital, and efficiency barriers accumulated by leading companies are likely to help them expand their advantages and further promote industry concentration. In the process of industry evolution, companies that deeply understand consumer demand and actively expand their business are more likely to maintain stability during industry adjustments and gain long-term development opportunities. Risk Warning: Intensified homogeneous competition, resistance to changes in consumption habits, food safety issues, etc