According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that air conditioner domestic sales experienced double-digit growth in July, while exports showed weak performance, in line with market expectations. Driven by policies and high temperatures, domestic air conditioner sales for the 2025 cooling year are expected to increase by 11% year-on-year to 110 million units, a historical high. Over the past decade, the industry's prosperity included 2017 (real estate + hot summer) and 2023-2024 (post-epidemic recovery + policies), with domestic sales declining by more than 10% only in 2015 (de-stocking) and 2020 (pandemic). When there are no inventory or demand shocks, the base effect is limited. The cooling year's domestic sales prosperity is concluding, with uncertainties remaining regarding overseas tariffs and geopolitics. Leading companies continue to shift production, and the long-term logic of going overseas remains unchanged; white goods leaders offer high quality and high dividends, making their investment value noteworthy.
<h2>Guolian Minsheng Securities' main points are as follows:</h2>
Industry Online released July air conditioner production and sales data
In July, the production of household air conditioners was 16.12 million units, down 0.01% year-on-year, and sales were 16.44 million units, up 1.58% year-on-year, of which domestic sales were 10.58 million units, up 14.34% year-on-year, and exports were 5.85 million units, down 15.47% year-on-year, with ending inventory at 14.72 million units, down 7.47% year-on-year; by company sales, Gree was down 4.05% year-on-year (domestic sales flat, exports down 15.00%); Midea was down 7.37% year-on-year (domestic sales up 1.69%, exports down 22.22%); Haier was up 27.59% year-on-year (domestic sales up 57.89%, exports down 30.00%); Hisense was up 19.58% year-on-year (domestic sales up 62.50%, exports down 11.93%); Changhong was down 15.91% year-on-year (domestic sales down 2.00%, exports down 34.21%); TCL was flat year-on-year (domestic sales up 68.00%, exports down 14.78%).
Domestic sales prosperity continues, cooling year prosperity concludes
In July 2025, domestic air conditioner shipments continued double-digit growth, with stable month-on-month growth. Considering that domestic sales in July 2024 were down 21% year-on-year, excluding the base effect, domestic sales for the month compared to the same period in 2019 showed a CAGR of about +3%; the high temperatures during the peak season resulted in domestic sales from March to July showing a CAGR of +4% compared to 2019 and 2023, indicating a stable trend. From the retail perspective, in July, leading brands continued to see rapid growth in installation cards, with Aowei monitoring showing online/offline retail volumes for air conditioners up 32%/37% year-on-year, with retail growth outpacing shipments. Looking ahead, domestic air conditioner sales from August to December 2024 are expected to increase by 13% year-on-year, with a higher base starting in September, which may lead to a weakening apparent growth rate; over the past decade, domestic sales from March to July accounted for about 53% of annual sales, and the performance during the peak season positively guides annual growth.
Diminishing short-term fluctuations, leading trends remain stable
In July, domestic sales of air conditioners for Midea/Gree/Haier increased by +2%/flat/+58% year-on-year, while Hisense/Changhong/Aux increased by +63%/-2%/+53%, with leading brands primarily stable, and Haier/Hisense performing relatively well. Since May, Industry Online has monitored significant month-to-month fluctuations in the relative growth rates of leading brands, with Midea's domestic sales growth rates in May/June being +30/+10 percentage points relative to the industry, with fluctuations likely due to differences in rhythm; the company's installation card base remained stable in July, increasing by +15%, indicating continued terminal prosperity; meanwhile, cumulative domestic sales for Midea from May to July increased by +24% year-on-year, while the industry was at +15%, suggesting that single-month data should not be over-interpreted
Among the second-tier brands, Haier and Hisense accelerated month-on-month, while Changhong performed relatively weakly. In July, Aowei monitored that the online retail volume of Xiaomi air conditioners increased by 5% year-on-year.
Weak external sales, digesting tariff impacts
In the current month, air conditioner external sales shipments decreased by 15% year-on-year, remaining stable month-on-month, with the impact of tariffs continuing. On August 12, China and the U.S. announced a continued suspension of the 24% tariff increase for 90 days, with subsequent developments still to be tracked; the pre-shipment impact and the high base in H2 2024 suggest that external sales may converge towards historical averages after digesting short-term fluctuations. During the peak season, the white goods sector is expected to perform weaker than the market from May to July 2025, with internal and external sales policy expectations potentially disrupting pricing; leading players are advancing in emerging markets, with limited tariff exposure, and the ongoing overseas production shift is expected to perform better than linear expectations during the recovery phase. In July, Midea and GREE's external sales decreased by 22% and 15% year-on-year, respectively, which is not significantly different from the industry, while Hisense, Haier, and Changhong saw decreases of 12%, 30%, and 34%, respectively.
Target recommendations
Recommend Midea Group (000333.SZ), Haier Smart Home (600690.SH), GREE Electric Appliances (000651.SZ), and Hisense H.A. (000921.SZ).
Risk warnings
Policy implementation may fall short of expectations; fluctuations in raw material prices and exchange rates; risks of tariffs and external demand falling short of expectations

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000333

600690

06690

000921

00921

000651

Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report indicating that domestic sales of air conditioners in the cold year of 2025 are expected to grow by 11% year-on-year, reaching 110 million units, setting a new historical high. In July, domestic sales grew by 14.34%, while export performance was weak. Despite facing overseas tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties, leading companies continue to transform, and the high quality and high dividend investment value of the white goods industry deserve attention

Zhitong

CHANGHONG

Midea Group

Haier Smart Home

HAIER SMARTHOME

Hisense H.A.

HISENSE HA

GREE

Guolian Minsheng Securities: The cold year for home appliances concludes, downplaying short-term fluctuations