Tianfeng Securities: It is expected that the overall electricity price level of coal-fired power units in Guangdong will remain relatively stable next year. It is recommended to pay attention to targets such as GED

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Tianfeng Securities released a research report stating that, on one hand, under the background of low electricity prices, the profitability of thermal power units in different regions, power generation types, and capacity levels in Guangdong Province has shown significant differentiation, with high-capacity coal power units performing better; on the other hand, the medium to long-term trading electricity price in Guangdong Province for 2025 is nearing a relative bottom, and the firm expects limited downward space, coupled with future capacity price increases, anticipating that the overall electricity price level of coal power units in Guangdong Province will remain relatively stable in 2026. In terms of targets, it is recommended to pay attention to Baoneng New Energy (000690.SZ), China Resources Power (00836), Guangdong Electric Power A (000539.SZ), Guangzhou Development (600098.SH), Shenzhen Energy (000027.SZ), and Suihengyun A (000531.SZ). The main viewpoints of Tianfeng Securities are as follows: Current Situation: Profitability Differentiation of Thermal Power Assets under Low Electricity Prices Regional Differences: There are significant differences in electricity demand across different regions within the province. The Guangdong electricity spot market adopts node marginal pricing, where the spot price corresponds to the time-of-use price at its connection node, closely related to local electricity demand. However, there are considerable differences in electricity consumption capacity across different regions in Guangdong Province, leading to variations in spot electricity prices. When supply and demand are balanced, node prices are relatively stable; when supply exceeds demand, node prices may decline; when demand exceeds supply, node prices will rise. Specifically, according to data from the Guangdong Power Trading Center, on certain dates, the spot electricity price level in the Pearl River Delta region is significantly higher, while some areas in eastern and northern Guangdong also have certain advantages in spot electricity prices, whereas the western Guangdong region faces relatively high spot electricity price pressure. Asset Differences: Optimistic about the Profitability of High-Efficiency Coal Power Units in the Province From the perspective of capacity levels, there are significant differences in coal consumption, load, and frequency of start-stop among coal power units of different capacity levels, leading to a divergence in profitability. Among them, 1 million kilowatt units perform the best, with an overall net profit per kilowatt-hour above 0.01 yuan/KWh, and some units achieving a net profit per kilowatt-hour exceeding 0.02 yuan/KWh. The net profit per kilowatt-hour for 600,000 kilowatt units is around 0.01 yuan/KWh, with some units near the breakeven line, while units of 300,000 kilowatts and below are generally in a loss state, facing relatively high profitability pressure. From the perspective of power generation types, the electricity price for coal power units in Guangdong Province in 2025 will mainly be formed through market transactions, while receiving a capacity price compensation of 100 yuan/kilowatt·year, with an average annual utilization hours of around 4500 hours. Currently, their fuel costs are at a relatively advantageous position; meanwhile, the grid price for gas power units is set by model, with certain variable cost compensations, and also receiving a capacity price compensation of 100 yuan/kilowatt·year, with an average annual utilization hours of around 2800 hours, resulting in relatively high fuel costs. Due to fuel cost factors, gas power installations face relatively high profitability pressure. Outlook: Electricity Price Expectations Relatively Stable, Focus on Capacity Price Changes The annual long-term contract electricity price in Guangdong Province is nearing the bottom, and the firm expects limited downward space. On one hand, the electricity generated from coal-fired power is formed within the "base price + upward and downward fluctuations" range, where the fluctuations generally do not exceed 20%. According to the 2025 electricity trading results in Guangdong Province, the average transaction price for annual electricity trading is 0.392 yuan/KWh, with a downward adjustment ratio of 15.67%, only 0.02 yuan/KWh away from the price lower limit. At the same time, the firm believes that the medium to long-term electricity trading price limit policy should generally be directly formulated by the National Development and Reform Commission On the other hand, on July 24, 2025, the Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued a notice regarding the adjustment of coal, electricity, and gas capacity prices in our province. Starting in 2026, the capacity price for coal power units in Guangdong Province will be adjusted to 165 yuan per kilowatt per year (including tax). Considering the increase in capacity prices, the bank expects that the overall profitability of coal power units in Guangdong Province will be relatively stable in 2026, with a positive long-term trend in profitability changes. Risk Warning: Risks of macroeconomic downturn, risks of policy implementation falling short of expectations, risks of electricity price reductions, risks of significant increases in coal prices, and risks of errors in calculation assumptions, etc