Summary of Key Points from Powell's Speech at Jackson Hole

Interest Rate Guidance: Powell has opened the door for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, stating that changes in the baseline outlook and risk balance may require us to adjust our policy stance.

Labor Market: The labor market remains close to full employment levels. The balance in the job market stems from a significant slowdown on both the supply and demand sides of the labor force, indicating that the risk of job losses is rising.

Inflation Outlook: Short-term inflation risks are tilted to the upside. Long-term inflation expectation indicators based on market and survey data appear to remain stable. A one-time increase in price levels will not be allowed to evolve into a persistent inflation problem.

Tariff Impact: The impact of tariffs on consumer prices has now become clear, and this impact is expected to continue accumulating in the coming months, although the specific timing and magnitude remain highly uncertain. The effects of tariffs will be relatively short-lived and are considered a one-time change in price levels.

Framework Adjustment: The Federal Reserve has adopted a new policy framework, removing the statement about pursuing "inflation averaging 2% over the long term," as well as the statement that employment decisions are based on assessments of "the gap from maximum employment levels."