After the Jackson Hole Meeting: What US Treasuries Bonds And Institutional Flows Are Telling Us

At the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, Fed Chair Powell held rates steady but mentioned that "rate cuts could be considered." While there appeared to be no change on the surface, markets reacted instantly. As seen in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, the rate had already been trending lower before the speech, but during his remarks it plunged from 4.31% → 4.25%.** Source : TradingView US Gov Bond 10yr yield 8/22/25**The key point here to recognize is that falling yields equals rising bond demand. Bond yields move inversely to bond prices. When institutions buy Treasuries in bulk, prices go up, and yields must fall since the coupon stays the same. Thus, the sharp drop can be interpreted as institutional buying triggered by expectations of rate cuts. That makes it essential to analyze both market sentiment and institutional flows around this event. Clues from Institutional Flows The Treasury buying before and after Jackson Hole meeting wasn't a coincidence. Global macro funds and hedge funds moved first. Even before Powell's speech, they had already expanded long Treasury positions, having priced in rate-cut expectations. CME FedWatch data confirms this: Markets had been consistently pricing in an 80%+ probability of cuts ever since the July employment report was released Local institutions (pensions, insurers) also joined in, though more defensively. Their purchases were likely for ALM (asset-liability management) reasons to match liabilities with longer-duration assets. But when combined with rate-cut expectations, their buying to secure their position amplified the yield dropQuant funds most likely followed once their models detected falling yields, promptly pivoting into growth stock index futures. This wasn't just trend-following but algorithmic trading that links bond price signals with equity sector rotations. As a result, the Treasury rally spilled over into tech and semiconductor stocks. TradePulse ETF charts from August 22 confirm institutional inflows across growth-stock ETFs.** Source : TradePulse PowerInflows | 8/22 chart[QQQ, SPY, VOO] **Still, caution is warranted. Institutional flows don't guarantee long-term direction. Some trades may be hedges or short-covering which may not last long term. For retail investors, it's better to treat it as short term market reaction to the consideration for rate cuts until the official September rate-cut announcement.In short, Jackson Hole meeting didn't change policy, but it shifted the market into a "rate-cut conviction zone." Institutions moved first via Treasuries, and equities(particularly growth stocks backed ETFs) followed. For retail investors, the key takeaway is to align with institutional flows, but with managed risk, and staggered entries ahead of uncertain events.Macro Meets Flows: A Rate Strategy Backed by InstitutionsTreasury yields as a leading indicatorThe 10-year yield is the most relevant way to gauge "institutional sentiment". Note that yields were moving before Powell even spoke. Evidence of anticipatory positioning by pensions, and macro funds. For retail investors, monitoring Treasury yields before Fed events provides a roadmap of where markets might head post-announcement.If yields fall steadily before an event, it signals institutional buying momentum and a higher probability of a growth-stock rally, whereas flat or rebounding yields suggest weaker rate-cut expectations and the risk of a short-term equity correction. A framework that applies not only to bonds but also to equities, FX, and commodities.Institutions increasing exposure to growth stocksIn a rate-cut cycle, rate-sensitive sectors such as Big Tech, AI, and semiconductors tend to benefit the most. TradePulse data from August 22 shows institutional inflows into growth-focused ETFs, reflecting strategies designed to balance defensively against upside capture from the institutions. This flow based decision making is something that retail investors can actively monitor and align with.Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.