Who Wants To Be A Trillionaire? The Fed Chair Game Show

The chair of the Federal Reserve commands one of the most powerful positions in global finance. Whoever holds the role doesn't just steer U.S. monetary policy – but shapes the trajectory of the world's reserve currency, influencing everything from the cost of mortgages in Arizona, to the price of debt of an emerging economy like Zambia."The Fed is the most important economic policymaker in the United States, if not across the globe," Sarah Binder, political science professor at George Washington University, said per MarketWatch. "The decisions it makes affect everybody—people buying a house, people needing a car loan, businesses considering expansion. There's no bigger impact on people's economic and social well-being."That's why the approaching end of Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair has set off an unusually public search for his successor. Alongside President Donald Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has narrowed the list to three potential candidates: Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council; Kevin Warsh, former Fed board member; and Christopher Waller, current board member.Powell's time is up in May 2026, and the race for the Fed's top seat—complete with reality-show theatrics—has begun.Trump Adopting Erdogan's Policy?Powell's relationship with Trump was fraught from the beginning. The president frequently lashed out at Powell for keeping interest rates "too high," at one point calling him "Jerome ‘Too Late' Powell." Trump's central demand was simple – slash rates aggressively and boost growth, regardless of inflationary consequences.Behind the tweets lay a deeper struggle over independence. Trump openly considered firing Powell and recently moved to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook, an unprecedented step that undermined the central bank's credibility. By seeking to handpick governors loyal to him, Trump is edging closer to transforming the Fed into a tool for a short-term stimulus, at risk of long-term stability.Keen observers might find parallels with Turkey, where President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan repeatedly fired central bank chiefs for refusing to cut rates. His interventions left Turkey grappling with inflation above 30% and a credibility crisis in its financial system."Central banks insulated from politics are a cornerstone of successful economic policy worldwide. After years of interference, Turkey's inflation is over 33%—the U.S. must avoid that path," warned Roosevelt Institute economist Michael Madowitz.Monetary Game ShowThe search for Powell's successor is being run less like a discreet Washington process and more like a television casting call. But perhaps that is the case because the role itself might be transforming into a television role.In many ways, the future Chairman's job resembles a game show "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?" —although, given the magnitude of the Fed's balance sheet, a trillionaire.The first game lifeline, 50/50, is akin to the Fed's reliance on its favorite data: inflation measures like CPI and the core PCE index, or job market numbers. These indicators narrow the choices, but rarely provide certainty.The second lifeline, Ask the Audience, reflects the Fed's internal process of consulting its governors. Each brings their models and regional perspectives, but it can be hard to guess whether they're just following the Chairman's initial narrative.And then, there is Phone-a-Friend. In this game, that friend would be Donald Trump. For a future Fed chair, picking up that phone could mean surrendering independence in exchange for job security.As Alan Blinder, former Fed vice chair, warned: "It's going to be next to impossible for whoever gets the job to convince the market that he or she is not taking orders from the White House." Trump’s Billionaire Backer Turns Critic — Ken Griffin Warns President’s Fed Meddling Won’t End Well Image: Shutterstock