Pacific Securities: The pharmaceutical industry is stabilizing and improving, with signs of recovery already visible

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Pacific Securities released a research report stating that in the first half of 2025, the CXO sector achieved operating revenue of 47.096 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.25%, and realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 11.743 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.19%. Revenue maintained stable growth, and profits grew rapidly year-on-year, mainly due to the gradual recovery of the CXO industry, improved operational efficiency, and cost reduction and efficiency enhancement. In the first half of 2025, contract liabilities and advance receipts were 7.549 billion yuan and 3.71% year-on-year growth, respectively, indicating that industry demand stabilized and orders slightly rebounded. The CXO sector is expected to continue to recover in both domestic and international demand, with recommendations to focus on themes such as clinical CRO, upstream research, AI/weight loss drugs, etc. The main points of Pacific Securities are as follows: Revenue maintains stable growth, and profits increase rapidly year-on-year. In the first half of 2025, the CXO sector achieved operating revenue of 47.096 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.25%, and realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 11.743 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.19%. Revenue maintained stable growth, and profits grew rapidly year-on-year, mainly due to the gradual recovery of the CXO industry, improved operational efficiency, and cost reduction and efficiency enhancement; in the second quarter of 2025, the CXO sector achieved operating revenue of 24.750 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.95%, and realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.674 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.26%. The revenue side achieved steady growth, and the profit side increased rapidly year-on-year, indicating that the sector's performance has stabilized and is gradually improving, with a clear warming trend. Per capita output increased in 2025H1, and fixed asset turnover slightly increased. In the first half of 2025, labor efficiency improved year-on-year, with per capita revenue of 411,100 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.62%, and per capita profit of 114,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.41%. The main reasons are the recovery of the industry and improved operational efficiency, with the growth rate of revenue and profit outpacing the growth rate of the total number of employees; in the first half of 2025, the fixed asset turnover rate was 1.00 times, a year-on-year increase of 7.03%, mainly due to the gradual recovery of the industry and improved operational efficiency, with short-term revenue growth outpacing fixed asset growth. Demand stabilizes, orders rebound, and capacity construction slows down. On the demand side: In the first half of 2025, contract liabilities and advance receipts were 7.549 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.71%, indicating that industry demand has basically stabilized and orders have slightly rebounded. On the supply side: Capacity construction increased slightly, with a slight increase in the total number of employees. In the first half of 2025, fixed assets amounted to 47.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.81%, and construction in progress was 15.810 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.69%; in addition, as of 2025H1, the total number of employees in the sector was 94,606, an increase of 2.50% year-on-year. Investment Recommendations Financial Aspect: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has begun, and liquidity is gradually becoming ample: According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025 is 90%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 10%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut in October 2025 is 20.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 71.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 7.7%. As the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process gradually advances, overall market liquidity is expected to gradually ease Fundamentals: 1) The market value of A+H share innovative pharmaceutical companies has significantly increased, which is expected to drive improvements in local investment and financing. The domestic A+H share innovative drug index continues to rise, with active trading in the innovative drug sector and noticeable profit effects. The improvement in the secondary market for innovative drugs is expected to drive a recovery in the primary market for investment and financing; 2) Improvement in overseas demand, with orders gradually recovering, thereby driving the demand and performance of CXO. Industry Level: It is recommended to pay attention to: 1) Changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, 2) Marginal changes in investment and financing, 3) Gradual recovery of overseas demand, 4) China-U.S. relations and geopolitical issues, 5) The introduction of policies such as the Class B catalog for medical insurance, commercial insurance, and support policies for the entire industrial chain of innovative drugs. Company Level: It is recommended to pay attention to: 1) Domestic clinical CROs benefiting from the introduction of domestic innovative drug support policies, such as Sun-Novo (688621.SH) and Nossan (301333.SZ); 2) Life science upstream companies with continuously improving overseas business, such as Haoyuan Pharmaceutical (688131.SH) and Bid Pharma (688073.SH); 3) Concept companies related to weight loss drugs, Alzheimer's disease, ADC, and AI, such as Hongbo Pharmaceutical (301230.SZ); 4) Companies with new orders exceeding expectations, such as Puris (301257.SZ). Risk Warning Federal Reserve interest rate policy not meeting expectations, investment and financing recovery not meeting expectations, China-U.S. relations and geopolitical issues, intensified market competition, exchange rate fluctuations, etc