Shenwan Hongyuan: The travel enthusiasm during the Double Festival rises, highlighting the trend of niche and segmented tourism

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report stating that the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday in 2025 will see record high popularity based on final data performance, but the average spending per customer has not increased due to the holiday growth. The long holiday has not led consumers to "travel further"; instead, there is an increase in off-peak travel and segmented tourism, with the growth rate of non-commercial small passenger car transportation (self-driving travel) outpacing the overall market. In addition, Hainan's duty-free sales and average spending per customer have significantly increased, reflecting an upgrade in category structure. There is still accelerated differentiation among scenic spots, and the styles of county tourism and niche tourism continue. It is recommended to focus on hotel and travel companies with incremental growth, and to pay attention to changes in duty-free product sales after Hainan's customs closure. Shenwan Hongyuan's main points are as follows: Travel volume and tourism revenue during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays show stable year-on-year growth, with market popularity rising According to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the 8-day National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in 2025, there were 888 million domestic trips nationwide, an increase of 123 million trips compared to the 7-day National Day holiday in 2024. The total domestic travel expenditure reached 809 billion yuan, an increase of 108.2 billion yuan compared to the 7-day National Day holiday in 2024. Based on estimates, the average daily travel volume during the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday was 111 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% compared to the average daily travel volume during the 2024 National Day holiday; the average daily consumption was 101.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%. Compared to the 2023 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday (8-day holiday), the number of trips nationwide increased by 7.5% year-on-year, and domestic tourism revenue increased by 7.4% year-on-year. The average spending per customer during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday was 911 yuan, slightly down from the 2024 National Day holiday. From the travel rhythm perspective, the peak of outbound travel flow occurred on the third day of the holiday, while the peak of return flow occurred on the seventh day of the holiday. The travel volume of non-commercial small passenger cars increased year-on-year at a rate higher than the overall market, indicating that the growth rate of self-driving tourism is higher than the overall. According to official data released by the Ministry of Transport, the total inter-regional personnel flow during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday (October 1 to 8) reached 2.432 billion trips, with an average of 304 million trips per day, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, setting a historical record for the same period. "Segmented" travel has become the norm, with a significant increase in off-peak orders. Data from Ctrip shows that many tourists this year chose to start their trips early from September 25 to 30 by taking leave, or to travel during or even after the holiday, mainly because off-peak travel not only enhances the travel experience but also significantly saves costs. Key scenic spots maintain growth above the industry average despite high baselines, and quality supply remains scarce The "Two Dams and One Gorge" cruise products from the Three Gorges Tourism Group have seen exceptionally strong pre-sales, with tickets sold out in advance from October 2 to 7. According to data from the Chongqing Cruise Center, during the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday (October 1-8), a total of 131 cruise ships departed on the Yangtze River Three Gorges (including 8 inter-provincial non-overnight cruise ships), which is 92.3% of the same period in 2024 (October 1-8); the passenger volume reached 37,000, an increase of 12.9% compared to the same period in 2024; the average passenger load factor (beds) was 81.6%, an increase of 9.1 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival Consumption Season: Stable Growth in National Retail and Catering, Continued Trade-in Policy, Gold Prices Reach New Highs According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, during the holiday period, the sales revenue of key retail and catering enterprises nationwide increased by 2.7% year-on-year. The continued trade-in policy has driven consumption across various regions. From October 1 to 4, the sales of energy-efficient appliances and smart refrigerators increased by 19% and 20.7%, respectively, while the sales of smart home products grew by 14.3% during the holiday. Gold prices reached a historic high, with London gold breaking through $4,000 per ounce, an increase of 4.73% from September 30 to October 8. The prices of 24K gold jewelry from brands such as Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook surpassed 1,100 yuan per gram, as gold jewelry gradually enters the traditional peak consumption season. Target Recommendations Recommended to pay attention to: SXLY (002627.SZ), Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism (600576.SH), Jiuhua Tourism (603199.SH), Huangshan Tourism (600054.SH), Huazhu (01179), Atour (ATAT.US), China Duty Free Group (601888.SH). Risk Warning Risks of household income and consumption recovery falling short of expectations, and exchange rate fluctuation risks