What will happen to Venezuela’s oil after Maduro’s arrest shakes control

The arrest of Nicolás Maduro has thrust Venezuela’s long-troubled oil industry back into the global spotlight, prompting investors and policymakers to reassess who controls the country’s vast crude resources and whether they can be revived after decades of decline. While Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, years of mismanagement, sanctions, and underinvestment have left output a fraction of its former levels, raising doubts about how quickly — or whether — meaningful recovery is possible.Who controls Venezuela’s oil assetsFor now, control of Venezuela’s oil sector remains largely unchanged. “Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), the state-owned oil company, controls the majority of the oil production and reserves,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in a CNBC report. American energy major Chevron operates in the country through its own production and joint ventures with PDVSA, while Russian and Chinese firms also participate via partnerships. However, “majority control is still with PDVSA,” Lipow said.Venezuela nationalised its oil industry in the 1970s, leading to the creation of PDVSA. Oil production peaked at around 3.5 million barrels per day in 1997 but has since collapsed to an estimated 950,000 barrels per day, according to Lipow Oil Associates data. Of that, roughly 550,000 barrels per day are exported.If a more pro-US and pro-investment government emerges, Chevron could be well-positioned to expand its role. Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial, said Chevron is “best placed” given its existing footprint in the country. European firms such as Repsol and Eni could also benefit, he added, due to their current exposure.Near-term market impact and global oil supplyAny political transition could disrupt Venezuela’s already fragile export system. “Since it is unclear at this time who is in charge in Venezuela, we might see exports completely halt as the buyers don’t know to whom to send the money,” Lipow said. He noted that recent US sanctions on a shadow fleet of tankers — vessels used to move oil outside traditional shipping and insurance systems — have already curtailed exports and forced production cuts.Lipow expects Chevron to continue exporting about 150,000 barrels per day, limiting immediate supply disruptions. Still, he said the uncertainty could add a short-term risk premium of around $3 per barrel. Others see little lasting effect. Rapidan Energy Group’s Bob McNally described the immediate impact as “almost a nothing burger,” arguing that global oil markets are currently trending toward oversupply.Venezuela’s strategic importance lies less in volume and more in quality. Its heavy, sour crude is difficult to extract but highly valued by complex refineries, particularly in the US.“American refineries… love to slurp that gunky oil from Venezuela and Canada,” McNally said. The key question, he added, is whether the industry can reverse “two decades of dilapidation and neglect.”Trump’s ambitions and long-term constraintsPresident Donald Trump has vowed to tap Venezuela’s oil reserves after seizing Maduro and declaring the US would “run” the country until a safe transition is in place. He has called on American oil companies to invest billions of dollars to repair Venezuela’s “badly broken” infrastructure and unlock largely untapped resources.Experts warn that the challenges are immense. Analysts estimate it would take tens of billions of dollars — potentially $10 billion annually — and up to a decade to restore production meaningfully. RBC’s Helima Croft said executives stress that a stable security environment is essential, adding: “All bets are off in a chaotic change of power scenario like what occurred in Libya or Iraq.”Even under a best-case scenario, gains would be slow. Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, said in a BBC report that Trump’s plans would have a limited impact on global supply and prices in the medium term. “There are an enormous number of hurdles to overcome and the timeframe… is so long,” he said, adding that oil prices in 2026 would likely see little change.Chevron, currently responsible for about a fifth of Venezuela’s oil output under a licence granted in 2022, said it is focused on employee safety and compliance with laws and sanctions. Other oil majors have remained publicly silent, though analysts say internal discussions are likely underway.Despite the political uncertainty, the scale of Venezuela’s reserves — estimated at 303 billion barrels — means the opportunity may prove hard to ignore. As Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi put it, “the potential prize may be deemed too big to avoid,” even if realising it remains a distant prospect.The post What will happen to Venezuela's oil after Maduro's arrest shakes control appeared first on Invezz