China's transformer exports are expected to reach a historic high in 2025, highlighting the value of China's supply chain against the backdrop of global shortages and soaring prices of power grid equipment. This supply-demand mismatch driven by data center construction and the electrification process is reshaping the global power equipment market landscape and providing continuous order growth opportunities for Chinese manufacturers.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the total value of China's transformer exports is projected to reach a record 64.6 billion yuan in 2025, an increase of nearly 36% from the previous year. The average export price per transformer has risen to 205,000 yuan, about one-third higher than the previous year. This growth coincides with a severe shortage of critical grid infrastructure equipment, such as transformers, worldwide.
Previously, State Grid announced that the investment scale during the 14th Five-Year Plan period will reach 4 trillion yuan, a historic high, representing a 40% increase compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan.
Energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie estimates that as the world's largest transformer buyer, the United States is facing a supply gap of about 30%, and this supply-demand imbalance may persist into the 2030s. Data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance indicates that global grid investment will exceed $480 billion for the first time in 2024, with strong growth momentum expected to continue in the coming years.
As a result, on January 19, the A-share power grid equipment sector performed strongly, with stocks such as SOJO, Hanlan Co., Ltd., Dalian Electric Porcelain, China XD, Baobian Electric, XJEC, and HPEC hitting the daily limit. The power grid equipment ETF saw an intraday increase of 6.39%, and this ETF has experienced net inflows for seven consecutive trading days, totaling over 4 billion yuan, with the latest scale reaching 8.575 billion yuan, a new high since its establishment.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/f80de7f8-6fcd-4ee5-9f9a-b05a207f6fc1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/f80de7f8-6fcd-4ee5-9f9a-b05a207f6fc1.png"/>
<h2>Data Centers as the Core Driver of Demand Explosion</h2>
The growth in orders for Chinese manufacturers is driven not only by the modernization and upgrading of aging power grids overseas but also by the global data center construction boom. Analysts Xu Qiang and Fang Qing from Guotai Junan Securities previously released a research report stating that the global data center market size is expected to grow from $242.72 billion in 2024 to $584.86 billion in 2032.
The report emphasizes that the demand for electricity from data centers is growing exponentially, with half of this demand being met by renewable energy generation. This means that both the substations at the access end and the renewable energy stations at the generation end are experiencing a simultaneous surge in demand for transformers and switches. Transformers are essential equipment in power grid infrastructure, used to convert high-voltage electricity into low-voltage electricity.
<h2>Supply Gap Difficult to Bridge in the Short Term</h2>
The Guotai Junan Securities report points out that although new investment plans have been announced in the global market, capacity expansion takes time, and there is currently a severe backlog of orders. According to IEA data, the delivery cycle is expected to remain high in 2025
Research report predicts that by 2025, the demand for power transformers in the United States is expected to exceed supply by 30%, with a gap of 10% for distribution transformers. This mismatch between supply and demand has directly led to soaring prices. Since 2020, the global power transformer price index has risen by 1.5 times, with some complex models reaching prices 2.6 times higher than pre-pandemic levels.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/44adb435-393d-472a-a4e1-813f1982818b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/44adb435-393d-472a-a4e1-813f1982818b.png"/>
Analysts at Guotai Junan Securities believe that when demand surges in the short term while the increase in transformer production capacity takes time, it becomes a bottleneck in the supply chain. Against the backdrop of global shortages, Chinese companies are expected to fully benefit from this infrastructure replenishment cycle.
<h2>China's Supply Chain Advantage Continues to Strengthen</h2>
Research report data shows that China's transformer exports account for one-quarter of the global total. Since 2018, the trade volume of power transformers in the European and American markets has doubled, indicating a serious reliance on imports. In the context of extreme shortages of grid equipment in Europe and America, the value of China's supply chain is further highlighted.
The domestic market also provides strong support. On January 15, the State Grid announced that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the company's fixed asset investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan investment, aimed at the construction of a new power system. On January 17, the National Energy Administration announced that by 2025, China's total electricity consumption is expected to historically exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, reaching 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 5%.
China's investment in the construction of a super grid primarily based on renewable energy is creating sustained domestic demand growth space for local transformer manufacturers

600312

300444

601179

000400

China's transformer export value reached a record 64.6 billion yuan in 2025, an increase of nearly 36% compared to the previous year. Guotai Junan Securities stated that the demand for electricity from data centers is growing exponentially, and by 2025, the demand for power transformers in the United States is expected to exceed supply by 30%, with a gap of 10% for distribution transformers. China's transformer exports account for a quarter of the global total. Since 2018, the trade volume of power transformers in the European and American markets has doubled, heavily relying on imports

Wallstreetcn

HPEC

SOJO

China XD

XJEC

Export value hits a record high, China's transformers are selling like hotcakes overseas!