In the third week of 2026, the A-share market showed a significant sign that cannot be ignored!
The clue emerged from the trading volume of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
On January 15, the trading volume of broad-based ETFs in the A-share market suddenly surged, with the CSI 500 ETF (510500) achieving a single-day trading volume exceeding 26.3 billion yuan, setting a record for the highest daily trading volume in history. The Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (510300) and A500 ETF (512050) also recorded a daily trading volume of 15.17 billion yuan, with many listed index ETFs seeing their trading volumes increase more than tenfold year-on-year.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/144ab8d4-8deb-4db1-9bc8-d837c065f333.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/144ab8d4-8deb-4db1-9bc8-d837c065f333.png"/>
This is a very unusual performance.
The rapid increase in trading volume indicates that there is a significant divergence among on-site investors regarding future market trends. A massive trading volume (the largest in history) often signifies that at least one party's trading intentions have undergone a substantial change, resulting in a significant buy (sell) order on the market, which leads to such high volumes.
Subsequent disclosed data was even more astonishing. According to WIND's tracking of ETF on-site scales, during the week of January 15 (hereafter referred to as the past week), mainstream ETFs in the industry experienced significant capital inflows and outflows.
Over 277.8 billion yuan net flowed out from various ETFs across the entire market, while over 162 billion yuan flowed into other ETF products (as of January 20 statistics).
An unprecedented capital movement occurred over these two trading days.
What changes have emerged in the ETF sector?
How will this affect the market performance in the next phase?
<h2>Where did over 270 billion yuan flow out from?</h2>
According to post-event statistics, the large-scale capital outflow from ETFs continued for several days. From the categories that experienced outflows, the related funds mainly flowed out from larger stock broad-based ETFs.
The so-called &#34;broad-based ETFs&#34; typically refer to core index ETFs categorized by scale and style. In the domestic market, they mainly target the largest, most representative, and most market-attended mainstream ETF varieties, such as the CSI 300 ETF, STAR 50 ETF, ChiNext ETF, SSE 50 ETF, CSI 500 ETF, CSI 1000 ETF, A500 ETF, etc.
Rough statistics show that the top ten stock broad-based ETFs in the entire market experienced outflows exceeding 190 billion yuan (as shown in the chart below, as of January 20, the same below).
In addition, some money market fund ETFs, STAR bond ETFs, and other large-scale fixed-income ETF varieties from the end of last year also saw capital outflows.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/1597817a-689d-46ff-b195-42e08cbb8a05.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/1597817a-689d-46ff-b195-42e08cbb8a05.png"/>
<h2>Who is Selling?</h2>
The concentrated reduction in fund size is usually due to two reasons:
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Institutional selling (or redemptions).
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&#34;Herd behavior&#34; among individual investors triggered by external information.
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Considering that there were no &#34;negative&#34; news affecting the entire market on January 15, the second reason seems to be ruled out.
Therefore, the source of the reduction in broad-based ETFs should be institutions.
So which institution is it? First, let's take stock of the products with the most significant volume increase that day, the CSI 500 ETF (510500). The fund's semi-annual report shows that the top ten holders mainly include , Central Huijin (3 accounts), CSI 500 Connect Fund (1 account), China Life, China United Insurance, Taikang Life, Caitong Securities, Happiness Life, and a foreign institution.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/41509966-3f98-4d1e-9f63-098db89a5f43.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/41509966-3f98-4d1e-9f63-098db89a5f43.png"/>
So which institution is more likely?
First, looking at the amount of funds exiting, the CSI 500 ETF (510500) saw a net reduction of 830 million shares on January 15, and the next day, the scale decreased by another 1.109 billion shares, totaling an outflow of 1.94 billion shares over two days. Such a scale of exit, if referenced against last year's semi-annual report, can only be matched by the top three holders at mid-year (as shown above).
Another very rare phenomenon is that on January 15 and January 16, the CSI 500 ETF experienced secondary market transaction prices that were significantly and continuously lower than the estimated fund net value during the day (see the chart below, with the white line representing the fund transaction price).
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/9d524960-2c46-42a2-af0f-2d1f5ed7fbaf.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/9d524960-2c46-42a2-af0f-2d1f5ed7fbaf.png"/>
The latter indicates that it is highly likely that an institution directly sold a large amount in the secondary market, leading to the aforementioned situation.
These signs indicate that the outflow of funds has distinct characteristics of institutional liquidity recovery, and the industry is speculating that this may be related to certain institutions holding large amounts of ETFs actively selling related varieties.
Considering that the selling methods of the latter have a significant impact on secondary market prices, they are generally rarely used by ordinary fund managers but are commonly employed by a certain super-large institution, thus, the question of who is selling has an answer that is &#34;eager to be revealed.&#34;
<h2>Where is the 160 Billion Fund Flowing?</h2>
However, not all ETFs are facing outflows.
According to statistics from Zhitang, among the latest 1,400 ETFs listed for trading in the two markets, 659 have seen net subscriptions in the past week, accounting for nearly half.
Additionally, the total inflow of funds into ETF varieties that week exceeded 162 billion.
Among them, the top 20 ETFs by inflow of funds have collectively received nearly 75 billion in net subscriptions (as shown in the chart below). Although the total amount and proportion are far less than those of outflows, the distribution characteristics of the inflowing products are distinct, revealing some clues about non-dominant buying by market funds.
Specifically, the inflow of funds into ETFs is mainly concentrated in two major themes: technological innovation and cyclical non-ferrous metals. Among them, technology ETFs such as software, media, Hong Kong internet, satellites, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and Hang Seng Technology, as well as cyclical ETFs such as non-ferrous metals, gold, chemicals, and rare metals, each account for nearly half of the total.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/cfa25511-52ae-49d4-8f03-5c014b7d823f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/cfa25511-52ae-49d4-8f03-5c014b7d823f.png"/>
The aforementioned fund inflows are closely aligned with market hotspots since the beginning of 2026, and most are ETFs in segmented industries. In summary, funds are clearly &#34;narrowing in&#34; from broad-based to growth-oriented ETFs.
<h2>Key &#34;Fortress&#34; of Value Stocks Breached?</h2>
Due to historical reasons, the core constituent stocks of domestic broad-based indices are still value stocks. Therefore, it appears that the continuous outflow of funds from broad-based indices during the week of January 15 has already affected many leading stocks in the value sector.
Taking Kweichow Moutai, the most typical representative of value stocks, as an example, as of January 20, 2026, this stock has recorded six consecutive bearish candles on the daily K-line, with a persistent trend of selling pressure.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/f52543fa-916e-4c40-98c6-e4b77e586d76.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/f52543fa-916e-4c40-98c6-e4b77e586d76.png"/>
Moutai is already one of the highest-quality food and beverage stocks. Looking at the liquor index (code: 884705, an index tracking the liquor industry, compiled by Wind), it has been approaching the low point of &#34;9.24&#34; during the continuous decline over the past six months.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/60c529a8-d471-4c35-bbd1-2cf1a4b61085.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/60c529a8-d471-4c35-bbd1-2cf1a4b61085.png"/>
Other similar value stocks, including those in finance and mining, also faced overall pressure on January 15. This seems to suggest that, in the context of value style not being dominant over the past year, there may be a further possibility of &#34;breaching&#34; important price levels.
However, from another perspective, extreme weakness may also herald the arrival of a bottom, or even a reversal—especially in specific industries.
From the perspective of the value style index, after experiencing extreme &#34;suppression&#34; on January 15 and 16, it has instead shown signs of a rebound.
The 300 value index has recently exhibited a distinct rebound trend. Essentially, the bottoming recovery of quality financial stocks such as China Ping An, China Merchants Bank, and Midea Group may indicate that value stocks are finding their &#34;feel&#34; again
From this perspective, a limit sell-off may be the starting gun for the value style's &#34;after the storm comes the calm.&#34;
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/54f31eff-0551-4a12-836d-3d2321a01563.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/54f31eff-0551-4a12-836d-3d2321a01563.png"/>
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at one's own risk.

In the third week of 2026, the A-share market experienced an unusual phenomenon, with a surge in trading volume of broad-based ETFs. On January 15, the trading volume of the CSI 500 ETF exceeded 26.3 billion yuan, setting a new historical high, while the CSI 300 ETF and A500 ETF also recorded trading volumes of 15.17 billion yuan respectively. Data shows that in the past week, 277.8 billion yuan of funds flowed out net from various ETFs, while 162 billion yuan flowed into other ETFs, indicating significant changes in market investor sentiment regarding future trends and fund flows

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CSI 500

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Huatai-PB CSI A500 ETF

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CS CSI A500 ETF

A massive capital shift of 400 billion, has the last "fortress" of value style fallen?