Hong Kong stocks face a major test as lock-up periods expire, with IPO frenzy concentrated on realization

In 2026, the Hong Kong capital market is entering a peak period for the lifting of lock-up shares. The direct source of this pressure is the strong recovery of the Hong Kong IPO market in 2025—during that year, the fundraising amount in Hong Kong stocks surged to the top globally, and a large number of new shares will have their lock-up period, which lasts 6 to 12 months after listing, expire in 2026, resulting in a wave of unlocked shares across years and in batches. As of now, the total market value of shares awaiting unlocking in the Hong Kong stock market for the entire year of 2026 is expected to reach as high as HKD 1.72 trillion, significantly larger than the approximately HKD 600 billion for the entire year of 2025