The dye industry is currently at the intersection of a quadruple bottom reversal characterized by &#34;new patterns, new orders, new cycles, and new values.&#34; The supply-side revolution driven by intermediates and the reshaping of long-cycle pricing power are the core driving factors for the industry in the coming years.
How to understand the cyclical changes in the dye industry?
<h2>I. What has happened? Price increases in progress</h2>
Recently, the dye market has shown clear signals of price increases, with price hikes being transmitted from intermediates to end products, forming a complete price increase chain. The prices of key intermediates have surged first:
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The price of the key intermediate reductant for disperse dyes has skyrocketed from 25,000 yuan/ton in 2025 to the current 50,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100%;
</li>
<li>
The price of the core intermediate H-acid for reactive dyes has risen from a low of 28,000 yuan/ton in 2025 to the current 38,000 yuan/ton, an increase of over 35%;
</li>
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The tight supply situation for key intermediates continues, with some varieties being priced but not available in the market, leading to simultaneous price increases for end dye products:
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<li>On February 8, 2026, Zhejiang Longsheng announced a price increase of 2,000 yuan/ton for most disperse dyes, with the market price of disperse black ECT300% rising to 19 yuan/kg, an increase of 2 yuan/kg (+11.8%) compared to the beginning of the month, and the market average price of reactive black WNN150% reaching 23 yuan/kg, an increase of 1 yuan/kg (+4.5%) compared to the beginning of the month.</li>
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<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/49145005-90ff-44f1-ae41-74c04c3af6b0.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/49145005-90ff-44f1-ae41-74c04c3af6b0.png"/>
The dye industry is currently at the intersection of a quadruple bottom reversal characterized by &#34;new patterns, new orders, new cycles, and new values.&#34;
① Core Logic One: Intermediate &#34;Lemon Aldehyde Effect,&#34; supply bottlenecks create a long bull market for prices. Reductants and key intermediates like H-acid have a better structure than the dyes themselves due to environmental, safety regulations, and industry reshuffling. The tightening supply of intermediates has become the &#34;master switch&#34; for this round of price increases, with logic similar to the lemon aldehyde bottleneck in the vitamin A (VA) industry, exhibiting strong premium capability and cost transmission efficiency.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/5663a5d7-be41-454f-bde8-82999f4402fd.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/5663a5d7-be41-454f-bde8-82999f4402fd.png"/>
② Core Logic Two: Environmental protection and &#34;dual carbon&#34; create high barriers, industry capacity &#34;only decreases, not increases.&#34; The dye industry is a typical high-pollution industry, producing 20-40 tons of wastewater for every ton of disperse dye. As the deadline for the construction of &#34;zero-carbon factories&#34; and the transformation of nitration processes (March 2026) approaches, outdated capacity will continue to be eliminated, leading the industry into a dividend period after stock game.
③ Core Logic Three: Low sensitivity in downstream, pricing power returns to leading companies. Dyes account for only about 15% of the cost of printing and dyeing fabrics and even less of the cost of finished garments. Against the backdrop of &#34;anti-involution,&#34; leading enterprises, with highly concentrated capacity (CR4 over 65%) and advantages of full industry chain integration, possess strong collaborative pricing power
<h2>II. Why is it important? The beginning of an industry paradigm shift</h2>
From the industry perspective, global production capacity is concentrating in China, and national production capacity is concentrating in leading companies, highlighting structural barriers. Dyes are essential fine chemicals in the textile and apparel sector. Currently, the most widely used in China are disperse dyes (accounting for 49.9%) and reactive dyes (accounting for 27.2%).
The global dye production capacity has completed its transfer from Europe and America to Asia. China is currently the largest dye producer, accounting for over 70% of the global total output. The dye industry has undergone significant reshuffling, forming a typical oligopolistic competition pattern.
① Disperse dyes: CR4 reaches 67.2%, with Zhejiang Longsheng (23.9%) and Runtu Co., Ltd. (20.2%) as the dual leaders.
② Reactive dyes: CR4 reaches 65.3%, with Runtu Co., Ltd. (21.8%) and Hubei Huayi (17.4%) leading. <img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/1aa89bb1-29a6-4138-944c-96075d1dc616.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/1aa89bb1-29a6-4138-944c-96075d1dc616.jpeg"/>
The production process of dyes is complex, and there is immense pressure for waste salt and wastewater treatment. According to statistics, producing 1 ton of intermediate H acid generates 14-16 tons of high-concentration wastewater (with a COD as high as 30,000 mg/L). By 2030, &#34;zero-carbon factories&#34; will cover the petrochemical and textile dyeing sectors. The unit carbon emissions of dye products are significantly higher than those of steel and cement (for example, primary aluminum is 13.37, while dyes reach as high as 16.65), indicating that there will be virtually no new production capacity in the future, only continuous optimization of existing capacity. The Ministry of Emergency Management has set the deadline for the transformation of nitration processes such as H acid to March 2026. This red line will force a large number of non-compliant small and medium-sized enterprises to shut down or undergo maintenance for up to six months between 2025 and 2026, exacerbating supply tightness. <img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/baa0a525-6b62-4d3f-98ad-f5e808101444.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/baa0a525-6b62-4d3f-98ad-f5e808101444.png"/>
Recently, the price of reducing agents has surged from 25,000 yuan/ton to 50,000 yuan/ton. Driven by this cost, on February 8, Zhejiang Longsheng raised the price of disperse dyes by another 2,000 yuan/ton. Currently, the market price of disperse black ECT 300% has rebounded to over 19 yuan/kg. <img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/a36c1cd5-d94a-4b7e-a2ef-4c5bdc8a3ab9.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/a36c1cd5-d94a-4b7e-a2ef-4c5bdc8a3ab9.png"/>
<h2>III. What to pay attention to next? Historical elasticity and value return</h2>
During the &#34;Xiangshui incident&#34; in 2019, the price of H acid once soared to 80,000 yuan/ton, driving reactive dyes up to a high of 33,000 yuan/ton. If the price of H acid approaches historical highs, there is still room for price increases in reactive dyes.
The main feature of this round of dye market is the high concentration of intermediates, which means that downstream companies, even if insensitive to dye prices, must accept price alignment
Review of the economic cycle from Q1 2018 to Q2 2019: RTGF's gross margin increased from 38.3% to 45.8%, and net margin rose from 19.2% to 38.7%. Zhejiang Longsheng's gross margin increased from 42.7% to 49.6%, and net margin rose from 18.4% to 26.0%. Current dye prices are still at the bottom range (around 20,000 yuan/ton), which has a broad recovery space compared to historical highs (50,000 yuan/ton).
What indicators should we pay attention to in the short, medium, and long term?
Short-term indicators (1-3 months):
① Intermediate - changes in the dye price spread;
② Can the price of reducing agents stabilize above 50,000 yuan/ton;
③ Can the price of H acid break through 45,000 yuan/ton and approach the historical high of 80,000 yuan/ton;
④ The expansion of the price spread is key to judging smooth transmission;
⑤ Pricing strategies of leading enterprises:
⑥ Are downstream printing and dyeing enterprises synchronously raising dyeing fees?
Medium-term indicators (3-12 months):
① Quarterly price center;
② Can disperse dyes break through 25,000 yuan/ton and move towards 30,000 yuan/ton;
③ Can reactive dyes break through 25,000 yuan/ton;
④ Q2 traditional peak season price performance;
The dye industry is at the starting point of a value return cycle. With the normalization of intermediate supply bottlenecks and the formation of industry consensus on &#34;anti-involution,&#34; the dye price center is expected to gradually rise from 20,000 yuan/ton to the historical normal prosperity range of 35,000-45,000 yuan/ton. Leading enterprises with intermediate barriers and integrated advantages will welcome a long cycle of value reversal.

Risk warning and disclaimer
The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users' specific investment objectives, financial conditions, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at one's own risk

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The dye industry is currently experiencing price increases, primarily driven by a supply-side revolution led by intermediates and the reshaping of long-cycle pricing power. Key intermediate prices have risen significantly, with prices for disperse dyes and reactive dyes also increasing. Environmental policies and industry reshuffling have led to tight intermediate supply, forming the core logic behind the price increases. Industry capacity is decreasing, and pricing power is gradually returning to leading enterprises

Outlook for the Dye Industry: Comprehensive Price Increases Underway, Why Has the New Cycle Started? How Long Will It Last?