In "Hong Kong Property," the average completion of private residential units is expected to decrease to about 16,000 units over the next four years

Yang Mingyi, Senior Co-Director of the Research Department at Centaline Property, pointed out that in 2025, there will be 62 private residential completion projects, providing a total of 18,448 units, a decrease of 5,813 units or 24% compared to 24,261 units in 2024, due to a reduction in completed units in the Kowloon and New Territories areas. Due to the government's slowdown in land sales in recent years and developers actively selling properties, 20,525 first-hand private residential units are expected to be registered and sold in 2025, significantly higher than the completion volume for the same year, alleviating the backlog of completed units. The property market is thriving, and with medium to long-term supply gradually declining, the supply and demand in the first-hand property market is expected to restore balance in the future.

The construction of private residential new buildings generally takes about four to five years from construction to completion, and the annual figures are quite volatile. Therefore, comparing the three-year moving average, it is found that the three-year moving average of completion volume for private residential units aligns most closely with the three-year moving average of commencement volume from four years ago. From 2018 to 2025, the average annual commencement volume is 18,000 units, with the average annual completion figures also around 18,000 units during the same period. However, from 2026 to 2029, the average annual commencement volume is expected to be 16,000 units, a decrease of 2,000 units from 18,000 units. As construction volume is adjusted downwards, it is estimated that the average completion volume in the next four years will further decrease to about 16,000 units.

In the Hong Kong Island area, there will be 17 projects in 2025, with a total of 2,820 units completed, an annual increase of 1,129 units, up 66.8%, reaching a seven-year high since 3,430 units in 2018. This is due to a higher supply in Aberdeen, Shau Kei Wan, and the Western District. The completion volume is mainly concentrated in Aberdeen (including Wong Chuk Hang) with 1,238 units, accounting for over 40% of the total in the Hong Kong Island area.

In the Kowloon area, there will be 30 projects in 2025, with a total of 9,002 units completed, a decrease of 2,012 units or 18.3% year-on-year. This is mainly due to a significant reduction in the number of completed units in Wong Tai Sin (including Kai Tak) to 3,408 units, a sharp drop of 46.9% from the peak of 6,417 units in 2024. Other areas with higher completion volumes include Cheung Sha Wan with 1,679 units, Kwun Tong with 1,292 units, and Ho Man Tin with 1,212 units.

In the New Territories area, there will be 15 projects in 2025, with a total of 6,626 units completed, a significant decrease of 4,930 units or 42.7% year-on-year. This is influenced by a substantial adjustment in supply in Tuen Mun, Yuen Long, and Tin Shui Wai. However, from 2018 to 2025, the supply in the New Territories has maintained a fluctuating pattern of high and low each year, averaging about 10,000 units annually over the past eight years. The completion volumes in Tseung Kwan O, Tai Po, and Tuen Mun are all over a thousand units, with 1,985 units, 1,697 units, and 1,323 units respectively