UBS Group's latest report indicates that humanoid robots are accelerating from proof of concept to industrial applications, with global demand expected to reach 30,000 units by 2026.
Analyst Phyllis Wang stated in a report released this week that as robots gradually develop &#34;brains,&#34; their ability to perform repetitive tasks in factory workshops and warehouses has significantly improved. Although only a few robots can autonomously complete simple tasks in industrial scenarios this year, the growth momentum has been initially established.
The report further points out that if breakthroughs are achieved in industrial applications, there is significant upside potential for demand forecasts in 2027 to 2028. Leading manufacturers have begun to layout production capacity, with Tesla planning to build a production line for 1 million units of Optimus robots per year, expected to be operational by the end of 2026.
UBS believes that although the intelligence level of robots still falls short of customer expectations, manufacturers' capacity expansion plans have demonstrated clear confidence in market prospects.
<h2>Chinese Companies Dominate Tesla Leads Capacity Expansion</h2>
UBS statistics show that the global shipment of humanoid robots is expected to be about 18,600 units in 2025, with Chinese companies holding a dominant share. Among them, Unitree and AgiBot each shipped about 5,000 units, together contributing nearly 10,000 units, accounting for more than half of the global total, indicating that Chinese companies have established a first-mover advantage in the commercialization phase.
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In terms of capacity expansion, Tesla's plans are the most aggressive, aiming to build a production line for 1 million units of Optimus, expected to be operational by the end of 2026. UBTECH plans to achieve a capacity of 10,000 units this year, while Boston Dynamics expects to establish an annual capacity of 30,000 units for the Atlas robot by 2028. These layouts indicate that although products are still in the iteration stage, leading manufacturers are positioning themselves for large-scale applications in advance.
<h2>Growth Peak Expected in 2027-28</h2>
UBS maintains its baseline forecast of 30,000 units for global humanoid robot demand in 2026 but also highlights upside risks. If artificial intelligence technology evolves rapidly or customer feedback positively drives adoption rates, demand could reach 35,000 units in an optimistic scenario, and in an extreme scenario, it could potentially rise to 40,000 units.
Analyst Phyllis Wang emphasized that once substantial breakthroughs are achieved in industrial applications, the demand forecast for 2027 to 2028 will face significant upside potential, with real shipment volumes expected to be concentrated in this period.
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From the application scenario perspective, humanoid robots are extending from industrial fields such as factory workshops and warehouses to broader scenarios. Currently, they mainly perform repetitive tasks, and as AI capabilities continue to evolve, their functional boundaries are expected to expand continuously

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UBS report points out that humanoid robots are accelerating from proof of concept to industrial applications, with global demand expected to reach 30,000 units by 2026. If AI technology breakthroughs occur or customer feedback is positive, in an optimistic scenario, it could reach 40,000 units. In 2025, global shipments are expected to be around 18,600 units, with Chinese companies Yushu Technology and Zhiyuan Robotics collectively shipping nearly 10,000 units, capturing a dominant share. UBS believes that a peak in shipments is expected between 2027 and 2028

- UBS Group's latest report predicts that global demand for humanoid robots will reach 30,000 units by 2026 as they transition from concept to industrial application.  
- Analysts highlight that advancements in robotic intelligence enhance their ability to perform repetitive tasks in factories and warehouses, with significant potential for growth if breakthroughs are achieved in industrial settings.  
- China is leading the market share, with Tesla planning to produce one million Optimus robots annually by the end of 2026, reflecting strong confidence in future demand despite current technological limitations.

UBS: Expects demand for humanoid robots to reach 30,000 units by 2026, with significant volume production likely in 2027-2028