On February 25, the Zimbabwean government announced an immediate suspension of all lithium concentrate exports, a policy shock that exceeded expectations and impacted the global lithium supply chain, triggering strong market expectations for rising lithium carbonate prices.
Boosted by the news, on February 26, domestic lithium carbonate futures main contracts surged by as much as 12% to 187,000 yuan/ton during trading, and by the close, the increase narrowed to 3.47%, settling at 173,700 yuan/ton. Notably, the previous trading day saw this variety close up over 10%, setting the largest single-day increase since its listing.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/da5c07bb-4201-4f08-a909-501c2b76593d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/da5c07bb-4201-4f08-a909-501c2b76593d.png"/>
The A-share lithium mining concept sector also strengthened, with intraday gains exceeding 3%. Erkang Pharmaceutical rose over 12%, Keli Yuan and Jinyuan Co., Ltd. increased by 10%, and Yanhai Co., Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium also followed suit.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/527956a4-3e97-4c50-8034-7e9f1c2f84da.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/527956a4-3e97-4c50-8034-7e9f1c2f84da.png"/>
Guotai Junan Securities believes that this export ban will cause significant disruptions to the global lithium supply. With current inventories at low levels and having been depleted for five consecutive weeks, combined with a continuous recovery in downstream demand after the Spring Festival, the short-term supply gap is expected to support lithium carbonate prices. The institution expects lithium prices to operate with a strong oscillation, thus maintaining an &#34;overweight&#34; rating for the industry.
In response to the impact of the ban, Chinese mining companies with operations in Zimbabwe, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, SINOMINE, Tianhua New Energy, and Yahua Group, have successively made statements.
<h2>Ban Exceeds Expectations and Covers In-Transit Goods</h2>
Guotai Junan Securities believes that Zimbabwe's lithium ore export ban has been implemented significantly ahead of the original schedule, and the enforcement intensity exceeds expectations.
On February 25, the Zimbabwean Ministry of Mines and Mining Development issued an emergency statement, announcing the immediate suspension of all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports, which clearly applies to all minerals currently in transit, with no timetable for resumption.
According to the new regulations, only enterprises holding valid mining rights and approved beneficiation plants are eligible for export, prohibiting agents and third-party traders from participating. Applying enterprises must submit a recommendation from the provincial mining office regarding beneficiation capacity and compliance, and declare mineral composition; violators will face penalties including revocation of export licenses and even mining rights.
The report mentions that tracing the policy context, Zimbabwe has prohibited the export of unprocessed lithium ore since 2022, announced plans to ban lithium concentrate exports starting January 2027 in June 2025, and required mining companies to build lithium salt smelting capacity locally. In January 2026, stricter checks on illegal smuggling began. This ban is a continuation and early implementation of a series of policies, with the core goal of keeping the lithium resource extraction and smelting industry chain entirely domestic, and supply disruptions may continue. Currently, enterprises with lithium salt or lithium sulfate production capacity locally can still apply for lithium concentrate export licenses, and lithium sulfate products are also allowed for export
<h2>Supply shocks cannot be underestimated, brokerages predict strong lithium prices</h2>
According to a report by Guotai Haitong, if the ban continues, the supply side of lithium ore will be significantly tightened. Coupled with the fact that lithium carbonate inventory has been declining for five consecutive weeks and the pace of destocking is accelerating, the industry's fundamentals are becoming tighter, and lithium prices are expected to fluctuate strongly.
From a fundamental perspective, lithium carbonate itself has released positive signals. From the end of January to February this year, SMM-calibrated lithium carbonate inventory has declined for five consecutive weeks, with the pace of destocking accelerating week by week, indicating that the supply-demand relationship is improving. As demand gradually recovers after the Spring Festival, along with the sequential activation of demand for power batteries and energy storage, the market's consumption pace of lithium carbonate is expected to further accelerate. Looking ahead to the whole year, the demand side is driven by both energy storage and power batteries, with a rapid growth rate; the supply side, however, faces dual constraints from ongoing disturbances at important mines in Jiangxi and uncertainties in overseas supply, suggesting that the supply-demand pattern will likely remain tight throughout the year.
In terms of the scale of supply shocks, Zimbabwe, as Africa's largest lithium ore exporter and China's second-largest source of lithium concentrate imports, has a significant impact from supply disruptions. According to USGS data, Zimbabwe's lithium resource output is expected to be about 28,000 metric tons in 2025, accounting for 10% of global output. Data from Chinese customs shows that in 2025, China is expected to import about 1.2 million tons of lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe, accounting for 15.5% of the total annual import volume of 7.751 million tons, equivalent to about 120,000 to 148,800 tons of lithium carbonate.
Changcheng Securities estimates that global lithium carbonate supply and demand in 2025 will be 2.1 million tons and 2.04 million tons, respectively, which is already in a tight balance. Considering the current ban, there may be a gap of 37,000 to 57,000 tons for the whole year. The institution believes that China's dependence on foreign lithium resources is about 60%, and the supply disruption from Zimbabwe means that about 9% of domestic lithium salt production materials face a shortage risk in the short term, which is expected to drive structural increases in lithium carbonate prices.
Guotai Junan Futures estimates that Zimbabwe will provide 177,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2026, accounting for 8.1% of global resource supply. Affected by geopolitical factors and resource localization, coupled with tight fundamentals, lithium prices will remain strong. Caixin Futures points out that the tightening supply of lithium concentrate will drive prices up, amplifying the price elasticity of lithium carbonate, highlighting the export advantages of lithium sulfate, and further pushing up the price center of the industry chain, accelerating the integration process of upstream and downstream.
In the medium to long term, Changcheng Securities believes that localized processing means higher costs for energy, sulfuric acid, logistics, and other supporting facilities, which will provide higher support for the long-term rigid costs of lithium carbonate. Guotai Haitong Securities expects that as Chinese enterprises establish and put into production lithium sulfate capacity in Zimbabwe, the policy impact will gradually be digested, but supply disruptions may continue before that.
<h2>Responses from Chinese mining companies vary, some have stocked up in advance</h2>
A-share listed companies with lithium mining layouts in Zimbabwe include Shengxin Lithium Energy, Sinomine Resource, Tianhua New Energy, Yahua Group, etc., and their responses to this ban vary.
A relevant person in charge of Sinomine Resource responded on February 26:
<blockquote>
&#34;All Chinese exports of lithium concentrate in Zimbabwe have been halted, waiting for subsequent policy details. Currently, Chinese enterprises have very little deep processing products for lithium locally. The company has related plans for extending the industrial chain, but it is not convenient to disclose them now.&#34;
A relevant person in charge of Yahua Group stated:
</blockquote>
<blockquote>
&#34;The company has already shipped all the lithium concentrate produced in Zimbabwe in advance. Recently, the local 'export suspension' will not affect the company's production side.&#34;
</blockquote>
The person further stated:
<blockquote>
&#34;According to the documents, traders and agents who have not obtained mining licenses and beneficiation qualifications locally no longer have export qualifications. However, Yahua Group can continue to apply for export and needs to supplement relevant materials in the export licensing process. The company has already started to promote this.&#34;
</blockquote>
A relevant person in charge of Huayou Cobalt stated that the recent &#34;ban&#34; in Zimbabwe mainly focuses on regulating illegal exports, and the company's mining license is issued by the local Ministry of Mines. It is currently uncertain how significant the specific impact will be.
Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that this ban is expected to raise the export threshold and industry concentration for Zimbabwean lithium mines, excluding traders without formal mining licenses or hand-miners, which is beneficial for Chinese mining companies with compliant mining rights in Zimbabwe

002738

002497

CITIC Securities believes that Zimbabwe's lithium mine export ban will exacerbate the supply gap formed by the current low inventory and recovering demand, and it is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate strongly. Chinese companies such as SINOMINE and Yahua Group have responded intensively, with some having already stockpiled in advance or begun applying for new export licenses

The Zimbabwe ban triggers supply concerns, lithium carbonate breaks through the 180,000 mark, listed companies respond intensively