Will The Iranian Regime Fall By June 30? Here's What Prediction Market Is Saying Amid US-Iran War
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The U.S. and Israel conducted strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior leaders, escalating the conflict. Prediction market Polymarket shows a 36% chance of the Iranian regime falling by June 30, down from a peak of 49%. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, threatening vessels, while Trump warns of further military action. A separate Polymarket contract indicates a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is unlikely soon, with over $7.5 million wagered on the outcome.
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