The report from "The Big Banks" predicts that the oversupply of solar glass production capacity in mainland China will continue, downgrading XINYI SOLAR and FLAT GLASS to "Hold."

HSBC's research report indicates that the mainland solar glass industry was revalued last year due to "anti-involution" and a surge in demand, but the pace of industry consolidation seems to lag behind. It is expected that this year's excess capacity will exceed anticipated demand by more than 30%. At the same time, last year, solar glass prices fell by 17% year-on-year due to weak demand and no signs of rebound.

The bank expects China's solar demand to decline by more than 40% this year, putting further pressure on pricing. In addition, China's cancellation of the export VAT rebate for solar products will increase the profit pressure on solar glass companies in the short term. However, the bank believes this move will ultimately accelerate market consolidation, benefiting cost-leading companies.

The bank downgraded the H-share ratings of XINYI SOLAR (00968.HK) and FLAT GLASS (06865.HK) from "Buy" to "Hold," with the former's target price reduced from HKD 4.4 to HKD 3.9, and the latter's target price lowered from HKD 14.5 to HKD 11.5. Meanwhile, the bank also cut the A-share target price of FLAT GLASS (601865.SH) from RMB 23.7 to RMB 17.9. Short-term catalysts include the upcoming earnings announcements and policy announcements during the National People's Congress in March