The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz combined with the impact of the Middle East conflict has led Goldman Sachs to predict that the average price of Brent crude oil in March will exceed three digits, while simultaneously warning that prices may gradually decline in the second half of the year.
According to Reuters, Goldman Sachs stated on Friday (March 13) that due to the war in Iran and damage to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure, as well as disruptions in transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, the average price of Brent crude oil in March is expected to exceed $100 per barrel, while the average price in April is expected to drop to $85.
Despite short-term upward pressure on oil prices, Goldman Sachs is relatively cautious about the price trend for the entire year. If disruptions in oil circulation do not worsen further, Brent crude oil prices are expected to gradually decline to the low range of $70 within the year.
As of the time of writing, Brent crude oil futures are priced at $100.13 per barrel, with a cumulative increase of about 8% this week. On Monday, oil prices briefly reached $119.50 per barrel, the highest level since mid-2022, with significant market volatility due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and rising concerns over energy supply disruptions.
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<h2>Short-term high, trend towards decline in the second half of the year</h2>
Goldman Sachs pointed out on Friday that since the U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed. This waterway carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supply, and its disruption poses a direct and profound impact on the global energy market.
According to Goldman Sachs' calculations, if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz lasts for two months, Brent crude oil prices could soar to $93, more than 30% higher than the benchmark target price of $71.
Analysts indicate that this scenario calculation reveals the potential upward pressure on oil prices from current geopolitical risks.
Despite short-term upward pressure on oil prices, Goldman Sachs is relatively cautious about the price trend for the entire year. The firm expects that if oil circulation disruptions do not worsen further, Brent crude oil prices will gradually decline to the low range of $70 within the year.
However, Goldman Sachs also highlighted the upward risks: if the duration of supply disruptions exceeds expectations, oil prices may reach higher peaks and maintain higher levels by the end of the year.
This is the latest move by Goldman Sachs to continuously raise oil price forecasts.
The firm just raised its forecast for the average price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter of 2026 from $66 per barrel to $71, and also raised the fourth-quarter average price forecast for WTI crude oil—from $62 per barrel to $67, which is comparable to the adjustment for Brent crude oil.
According to an article from Wall Street Insight, Goldman Sachs noted at that time that if the flow through the Strait of Hormuz remains sluggish until late March, oil prices will trend upward during this period, &#34;until the market is convinced that the likelihood of a long-term disruption is low.&#34;

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Affected by the U.S.-Israel war and the disruption of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs raised its March average price forecast for Brent crude oil to over $100 per barrel on Friday, with a drop to $85 in April. According to Goldman Sachs' calculations, if the strait disruption lasts for two months, the average price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter could rise to $93, exceeding the benchmark target by more than 30%

- Goldman Sachs projects that the average price of Brent crude oil will exceed $100 per barrel in March due to disruptions from the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with a forecast drop to $85 in April.  
- The disruption in the Strait, which carries about 20% of the world's oil and gas supply, poses significant risks to global energy markets, with potential price increases up to $93 if it persists for two months.  
- Despite short-term pressures, Goldman remains cautious, expecting Brent prices to gradually decrease to around $70 by year-end, depending on the stabilization of oil supply.

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Goldman Sachs raises short-term oil price targets again: Brent crude at $100 in March and $85 in April