A Look At Tsuruha Holdings (TSE:3391) Valuation After February 2026 Sales Growth And Welcia Integration

Why February’s trading update matters for Tsuruha Holdings (TSE:3391) Tsuruha Holdings (TSE:3391) caught investor attention after its February 2026 update showed all store net sales year-on-year growth of 4.8% and existing store growth of 4.0%, alongside store openings and closures. For a drugstore operator focused on prescription and retail sales, this combination of sales growth, network reshaping with 12 store openings and 17 closures, and support from dispensing pharmacy operations raises fresh questions about how the integrated group’s footprint and revenue base are evolving. See our latest analysis for Tsuruha Holdings. Tsuruha Holdings’ latest share price of ¥2,261.5 comes after a 1 day share price return of 2.75%. However, the 30 day and year to date share price returns of 16.43% and 21.34% declines contrast with a 1 year total shareholder return of 23.13% and 3 year total shareholder return of 45.04%. This suggests longer term holders have fared better than recent buyers as the market reassesses the company following its February sales update and ongoing store integration activity. If Tsuruha’s recent swings have you reassessing your ideas, it could be a good moment to broaden your search with our list of 10 top founder-led companies. With February sales up, a larger prescription network and the share price sitting below the ¥2,802 analyst target, is Tsuruha quietly offering value here, or is the market already baking in the group’s future growth? Price-to-Earnings of 66.1x: Is it justified? Tsuruha Holdings closed at ¥2,261.5 with the shares trading on a P/E of 66.1x, which screens as expensive compared with both its peers and the broader Consumer Retailing industry. The P/E ratio compares the current share price to the company’s earnings per share, so a higher multiple usually reflects higher expectations for future profit growth or a willingness to pay up for the business today. For Tsuruha, the high P/E sits alongside several mixed signals. Earnings are forecast to grow 25.5% per year and revenue 20.3% per year, which are both higher than the forecast for the JP market. At the same time, reported earnings over the past year declined 41.5%, profit margins slipped from 2.6% to 1.4%, and results were affected by a large one off loss of ¥18.1b. Those factors can make current earnings look depressed, which in turn can inflate the P/E, so the headline 66.1x multiple may not fully reflect the underlying earning power the market is focusing on. Relative to others, the gap is wide. Tsuruha’s 66.1x P/E is much higher than the JP Consumer Retailing industry average of 13.5x and well above the peer average of 16.1x. It is also above an estimated fair P/E of 41.9x. This is a level our fair ratio work suggests the market could shift toward if expectations cool or earnings catch up. Explore the SWS fair ratio for Tsuruha Holdings Result: Price-to-Earnings of 66.1x (OVERVALUED) However, you still need to weigh the 41.5% earnings decline and ¥18.1b one off loss, along with thinner 1.4% margins, against that premium P/E. Find out about the key risks to this Tsuruha Holdings narrative. Another View: Our DCF model points in the opposite direction While the current 66.1x P/E suggests a rich price, our DCF model tells a very different story. On that method, Tsuruha screens as overvalued, with the share price of ¥2,261.5 sitting above an estimated future cash flow value of ¥918.68. Which signal carries more weight for you? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. 3391 Discounted Cash Flow as at Mar 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Tsuruha Holdings for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 23 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity. Next Steps If all these mixed signals around Tsuruha have you on the fence, it makes sense to move quickly, look through the details yourself, and weigh both sides carefully so you can see how the balance between risks and rewards stacks up using our summary of 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs. Looking for more investment ideas? Do not stop with one company when you can quickly scan a wider field of ideas, especially when time and attention are two of your biggest edges. Tap into potential mispricings by reviewing 23 high quality undervalued stocks that pair solid fundamentals with what our models suggest could be more attractive entry points. Prioritise resilience by checking out 48 resilient stocks with low risk scores, focusing on companies that our scoring flags with relatively lower overall risk profiles. Get ahead of the crowd by scanning our screener containing 59 high quality undiscovered gems, highlighting companies that currently attract less attention but still show strong underlying metrics. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Tsuruha Holdings might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free Analysis