"Forecast" Brokers expect Xiaomi's adjusted net profit last quarter to drop by over 19%, concerned about the impact of rising storage chip costs

Xiaomi-W (01810.HK) will announce its results next Tuesday (24th). Due to the ongoing memory chip shortage crisis, the company's transition to a higher price range, and intensified competition in the domestic industry, market research firm IDC estimates that Xiaomi's shipments in the last quarter fell by 11.4% year-on-year. During this period, the decline in gross profit margin has dragged down performance. According to a comprehensive forecast from six brokerages, Xiaomi's adjusted net profit for the fourth quarter of 2025, measured under non-International Financial Reporting Standards, is expected to be between RMB 5.26 billion and RMB 8.915 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 36.7% to an increase of 7.2% compared to RMB 8.316 billion in the same period last year, with a median of RMB 6.71 billion, representing a year-on-year decline of 19.3%.

According to forecasts from seven brokerages, Xiaomi's revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be between RMB 113.005 billion and RMB 125.374 billion, an increase of 3.7% to 15% compared to RMB 109.005 billion in the same period last year. Investors will pay attention to the continued impact of rising raw material prices, such as storage chips (DRAM and NAND), on the mobile phone business, which is expected to put pressure on the costs of Xiaomi's mobile phone and other businesses. If the company can implement price increases, it may offset some of the cost pressures, but the market will also be concerned about how price increases might affect end demand. Regarding the automotive business, investors are focused on Xiaomi's plans for new models (the new extended-range SUV SU7 in the second half of the year), production capacity, and gross profit margin guidance, and are even watching for opportunities for the automotive business to "go overseas."

【Mobile Phone Shipments Decline - Latest Guidance】

Bank of America Securities estimates that Xiaomi's adjusted net profit for the fourth quarter of 2025, measured under non-International Financial Reporting Standards, will decline by 36.7% year-on-year to RMB 5.26 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 54%, due to the slowdown in smartphone shipments and pressure on the IoT business. Affected by rising component prices, the gross profit margin may decrease by 1.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to about 21%. Considering the high operating expenses, the bank estimates that the actual operating profit (after deducting R&D, sales, and management expenses) will be RMB 6.7 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 25% but a year-on-year increase of 29%. The bank indicated that the rise in memory prices inevitably puts pressure on smartphone shipments and profit margins, but Xiaomi, with its larger scale and better procurement/execution capabilities, can ensure sufficient memory supply and is expected to outperform some Android brands.

Huatai Securities expects Xiaomi's revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 to be RMB 119.907 billion, an increase of 10% year-on-year, with smartphone business revenue of RMB 46.785 billion, a year-on-year decline of 8.8%. It is estimated that smartphone shipments in the last quarter were 37.8 million units, a year-on-year decline of 11.5%, with an average selling price of RMB 1,238, an increase of 3% year-on-year. The estimated gross profit margin for the smartphone business is expected to drop to 8.5% (12% in the same period last year, 11.1% in the third quarter of 2025); IoT and lifestyle consumer goods revenue is estimated to be RMB 25.157 billion, a decline of 18.5%, while automotive business revenue is expected to be RMB 37.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times, with automotive shipments of 140,000 units and an estimated gross profit margin of 21.6%. The bank expects Xiaomi's adjusted net profit for the fourth quarter of 2025, measured under International Financial Reporting Standards, to decline by 22% year-on-year to RMB 6.49 billion, with an overall gross profit margin of 20.5% Huatai Securities stated that due to the decrease in the proportion of Ultra, the bank expects Xiaomi's automotive gross margin for the fourth quarter of last year to fall to around 21.6% quarter-on-quarter. Looking ahead to 2026, the company's target sales volume is 550,000 units, and the bank predicts annual deliveries may reach 650,000 units. Although the profit margin was under pressure in the first half of the year due to consumer rights such as purchase tax subsidies, the bank expects the adjusted automotive gross margin for the whole year to reach 23.6%, mainly benefiting from supply chain management capabilities, hot-selling model methodologies, and high efficiency in new retail channels. In 2026, the company will continue to increase investment in R&D for new businesses (AI, robotics).

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According to a comprehensive forecast from six brokerages, Xiaomi's adjusted net profit for the fourth quarter of 2025, measured by non-International Financial Reporting Standards, is expected to be between RMB 5.26 billion and RMB 8.915 billion, compared to RMB 8.316 billion in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year decline of 36.7% to an increase of 7.2%, with a median of RMB 6.71 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.3%.

Brokerage│Adjusted net profit forecast for Q4 2025 (RMB)│Year-on-year change

JP Morgan│RMB 8.915 billion│+7.2%

Citigroup│RMB 7.476 billion│-10.1%

BOC International│RMB 6.929 billion│-16.7%

Huatai Securities│RMB 6.49 billion│-22%

Citi│RMB 5.414 billion│-34.9%

Bank of America Securities│RMB 5.26 billion│-36.7%

Based on Xiaomi's non-GAAP attributable net profit for Q4 2024 of RMB 8.316 billion

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According to a comprehensive forecast from seven brokerages, Xiaomi's revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be between RMB 113.005 billion and RMB 125.374 billion, compared to RMB 109.005 billion in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.7% to 15%.

Brokerage│Revenue forecast for Q4 2025 (RMB)│Year-on-year change

Futu│RMB 125.374 billion│+15%

JP Morgan│RMB 123.809 billion│+13.5%

Huatai Securities│RMB 119.907 billion│+10%

BOC International│RMB 119.638 billion│+9.8%

Bank of America Securities│RMB 116.171 billion│+6.6%

Citi│RMB 113.005 billion│+3.7%

Based on Xiaomi's non-GAAP attributable revenue for Q4 2024 of RMB 109.005 billion