JP Morgan lowers QFIN-S target price to $14, quarterly results disappoint expectations

JP Morgan released a report indicating that QFIN (QFIN.US) will underperform expectations in the fourth quarter of 2025. After deducting a one-time gain of 270 million RMB, the after-tax net profit is 17% and 28% lower than the bank's forecast and market expectations, respectively. In addition, tightening regulations are also putting pressure on loan growth and pricing. The bank has lowered its earnings per share forecasts for 2026/2027/2028 by 22%/24%/28%, and reduced the target price from $16 to $14. It maintains a "Neutral" rating, noting that there may be downside risks in the short term due to further regulatory tightening, but if asset quality exceeds expectations, there could be upside potential