The oil crisis of the 1970s created the glory of Japanese fuel vehicles, so will 2026 be the turning point for Chinese electric vehicles?

Oil prices have surged, and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, leading to an energy shock that is reshaping the global automotive market landscape. The echoes of history are clear: the 1973 oil crisis gave rise to the emergence of Japanese cars, and the crisis in 2026 may become a turning point for Chinese electric vehicles to take over the global market. Brent crude oil soared to $112 per barrel during intraday trading on March 19, nearing historical peaks. This round of energy shock is accelerating consumers' transition to electric vehicles, mirroring the logic of the 1973 OPEC oil embargo that reshaped the automotive market. Analysts point out that with Western tariff barriers gradually loosening and markets in Australia, Canada, and Europe opening up successively, Chinese electric vehicle brands are expected to achieve leapfrog expansion in the global market amid this energy turmoil. For ordinary consumers, the impact is already tangible. Analysis shows that if oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, the cost advantage of electric vehicles will become increasingly significant—monthly expenses for driving fuel vehicles in Europe are about €140, while electric vehicles only require €65. This price difference is pushing more and more onlookers to the tipping point of making a purchase decision. Hormuz Crisis—The Trigger for Supply Shock The direct trigger for this round of soaring oil prices is the escalating military conflict in the Gulf region. Since February 28, the U.S. and Israel have launched airstrikes against Iran, targeting Iran's most important oil export hubs, including Kharg Island and the Pars oil and gas facilities. Iran immediately retaliated by blocking the Strait of Hormuz and attacking oil and gas facilities in neighboring Gulf countries. The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of the world's oil trade flow, and the supply disruption caused by its blockade has been described by the industry as the most severe in recent years, with pain levels comparable to 1973. Brent crude oil was quoted at $112 on March 19, not far from the intraday historical high of $147.50 set in 2008. The instability of energy supply is spreading to broader economic sectors. Analysts point out that high oil prices will drive up costs across the entire supply chain, from food to fertilizers, exacerbating inflationary pressures and forcing governments to reassess their energy security strategies. The Rise of Japanese Cars as a Lesson The history of 1973 provides the most compelling reference. At that time, the Middle East oil embargo caused oil prices to quadruple in a short period, prompting American consumers to quickly abandon Detroit's gas-guzzling models in favor of fuel-efficient Japanese compact cars like the Honda Civic, Toyota Corolla, and Datsun. Data confirms the depth and speed of this transition: the market share of Japanese cars in the U.S. jumped from about 9% in 1976 to 21% in 1980, with the overall market share of imported cars reaching 28% by the late 1980s. Meanwhile, the three major American automakers suffered severe blows—General Motors' sales fell by 34%, and Ford's decline was even higher at 47%, forcing them to hastily pivot to compact models, but they had already missed the opportunity. Analysts believe that the dynamics of 2026 are highly similar to those of 1973, and may even be more intense—the difference this time is that the substitute is electric vehicles, and the disruptor is China. Chinese Electric Vehicles: Competitive Advantage of Zero Fuel In this round of energy shock, the competitive advantage of Chinese electric vehicle brands is being amplified. Brands such as BYD, Nio, ZEEKR, Geely, and Chery have formed a distinct differentiation advantage in a market environment of high oil prices, thanks to zero fuel operating costs, lower total lifecycle costs, advanced technology configurations, and aggressive pricing strategies. Market data has shown clear signals of demand shifts. According to Edmunds, the consumer search share for electrified models jumped from 20.7% to 22.4% in early March, recreating the peak trend seen during the oil price shock in 2022. CarGurus and several industry analysts also pointed out that each round of sustained oil price increases drives up the attention on hybrid and pure electric models—hybrid models first capture the initial wave of demand, while pure electric vehicles see larger-scale conversion 3 to 6 months later as the economic calculations of vehicle usage become clearer. China's own market transformation also provides forward-looking references. Currently, over 50% of new car sales in China are electric or plug-in hybrid models, and oil demand has declined year-on-year for two consecutive years, effectively avoiding the energy shocks experienced by other countries. Industry data shows that by 2025, global electric vehicles will cumulatively replace oil consumption by 1.7 million barrels per day, equivalent to 70% of Iran's export volume, saving importing countries approximately $600 billion in potential energy expenditures annually. Demand Peak Advanced: Deep Restructuring of Energy Landscape The far-reaching impact of this crisis may exceed the short-term fluctuations in market share. The International Energy Agency (IEA) previously predicted that global oil demand would peak in 2029, but the ongoing escalation of the Hormuz crisis may significantly advance this timeline. Under the pressure of energy security, the electrification process of corporate fleets in various countries will accelerate significantly, while Chinese electric vehicle exports are expected to experience explosive growth in a market where tariff barriers are loosening. The simultaneous promotion of sodium-ion battery mass production plans in China also provides an alternative path beyond lithium batteries for transportation and large-scale energy storage, further strengthening its comprehensive competitiveness in the new energy industry chain. Analysts summarize this outlook as follows: just as Japanese automakers achieved a historic leap over the American automotive industry during the energy crisis of the 1970s, Chinese new energy vehicle companies are standing at a similar historical juncture—energy shocks may become the strongest catalyst for reshaping their global market landscape