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No Rate Cuts In 2026? Prediction Market Is Betting This On Fed Moves

benzinga_article
Mar 20, 2026 at 04:03 AM
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The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates for the third consecutive time, aligning with market expectations. The last rate cut occurred in December 2025. Prediction markets indicate a low likelihood of rate cuts in 2026, with a leading probability of 31% for no cuts. Former President Trump has urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to implement cuts immediately. The Fed will hold six meetings in 2026, with the next one in April.

The Federal Reserve kept the interest rates unchanged for the third time on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. The last time the Fed announced a rate cut was in December 2025.

The Federal Open Market Committee, in its statement, noted that while economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, inflation remains elevated.

Trump Wanted Powell To Announce Rate Cuts

President Donald Trump, in a Truth Social post earlier this month, called on Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell to announce rate cuts "immediately."

“Where is the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell, today? He should be dropping Interest Rates, IMMEDIATELY, not waiting for the next meeting,” Trump wrote in his post.

Here's What Prediction Market Is Saying

Amid the Fed's announcement of keeping the interest rate unchanged in its recent meeting, the prediction market is betting on how many rate cuts will be announced in 2026.

Polymarket, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform that allows users to wager on an outcome using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin, is currently betting on a contract "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?"

Over $11.4 million has been bet on the contract so far.

As per the contract, "0" is currently leading, with bettors placing a 31% probability on it, up by 16%.

Some bettors are still confident about a rate cut, with "1" having a 26% probability as per bettors.

Bettors, however, are not confident about more than one rate cut, with "2" having only 18% probability and "3" having only 11% probability.

FOMC Meetings In 2026

The Fed is set to meet six more times in 2026, with the next meeting scheduled in April.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

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