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Since the outbreak of the war between the U.S. and Iran, the growth rate of U.S. debt has been accelerating. As of now, the scale of U.S. national debt has officially surpassed $39 trillion.
How significant is the impact of this conflict on U.S. debt and finances? Is a debt crisis rapidly approaching again? What choices will global capital make in the face of such risks?
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U.S. Debt Surpasses $39 Trillion
According to the latest data released by the U.S. Treasury Department, as of March 18, the scale of U.S. national debt has officially surpassed $39 trillion.
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It took only 146 days for the U.S. debt to grow from $38 trillion to $39 trillion.
Since 2020, this debt has surged like a runaway horse, increasing by nearly $7 trillion in one breath. At this rate, reaching $40 trillion by 2026 is basically a done deal.
Currently, the U.S. needs to borrow $3.9 to stimulate $1 of economic growth. This &#34;debt-fueled survival&#34; model has long deviated from the normal trajectory of economic development, with the debt bubble growing larger and larger, potentially ready to burst at any moment.
Moody's warned the global financial market last year, downgrading the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing the continuous deterioration of U.S. finances and an addiction to borrowing that has become unstoppable.
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Now, many predict that with the ongoing U.S.-Iran war, the speed at which the U.S. Treasury borrows will increase.
Since March, the U.S. has increased its investment in the Iranian battlefield. Data disclosed by the White House shows that as of March 15, $12 billion has already been invested.
And this $12 billion is just the &#34;tip of the iceberg.&#34; Pre-war deployments, ammunition replenishment, equipment maintenance, and soldiers' subsequent welfare have not even been accounted for in these indirect costs.
The Wharton School has estimated that if this war continues for another two months, the total cost will be at least $40 billion and could reach as high as $95 billion, undoubtedly adding another significant debt burden to an already strained U.S. Treasury
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The uncertainty of war, combined with the continuous expansion of U.S. debt, has directly shattered the bullish sentiment in the market.
According to the Financial Times, investors are rapidly shifting to holding cash, and global funds have entered a &#34;mass withdrawal&#34; mode.
This has directly contributed to the recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar index.
Due to tight liquidity and an increasing number of people needing to hold U.S. dollar cash, there has been a phenomenon of dollar scarcity in the international currency market.
Data from China Economic Net shows that by December 2025, global investors had collectively reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $88.4 billion, with the top three creditor countries rarely reducing their holdings simultaneously: Japan cut by $17.2 billion, the UK by $23 billion, and China by $400 million, with major European economies also following suit.
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This collective reduction is not panic, but a rational judgment on the U.S. fiscal situation; after all, no one wants to hold a pile of debt that could depreciate at any moment and be the one left holding the bag.
More critically, the interest payments on U.S. debt have reached outrageous levels.
In fiscal year 2025, U.S. debt interest payments will reach $1.4 trillion, surpassing social security and defense spending for the first time, equivalent to 5.3% of U.S. GDP. Borrowing requires paying interest, and the U.S. is now struggling to bear even the interest, relying solely on continued money printing and borrowing, falling into a vicious cycle.
The reason the U.S. dares to borrow so recklessly is fundamentally due to its reliance on dollar hegemony, believing it can solve everything by printing money.
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However, debt cannot continue indefinitely. When Greece's debt spiraled out of control, its economy shrank by a quarter within five years, national income and pensions fell by a quarter, and the unemployment rate soared to 25%, with youth unemployment nearing 60%. The lives of ordinary people became unbearable.
Some may feel that a U.S. debt crisis is far from us, but that is not the case. The flow of global funds is interconnected; it will affect exchange rates and stock markets, and the money we hold may quietly shrink due to dollar depreciation.
The U.S. debt crisis has never been a singular debt issue but rather a backlash against the logic of U.S. hegemony.
For a long time, the U.S. has maintained prosperity through borrowing, shifted contradictions through war, and treated U.S. debt as &#34;global hard currency,&#34; making the whole world pay for its extravagance.
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But now, countries are accelerating the diversification of their foreign exchange reserves, and the global official gold reserves have reached the highest proportion since 2000. The trend of &#34;de-dollarization&#34; is becoming increasingly evident, and the &#34;cornerstone&#34; status of U.S. Treasury bonds is being gradually eroded.
As U.S. debt continues to pile up, future global contradictions will only increase, and geopolitical conflicts will become more intense. The United States is wavering between economic recession and severe inflation; either it does not raise the debt ceiling and falls into crisis, or it continues to borrow, allowing inflation to spiral out of control. This dilemma is bound to affect the global economic landscape.
Looking back at the initial figure of 39 trillion, this is not a cold number, but a signal of the reshaping of the global economic landscape

USDU

The scale of U.S. national debt has surpassed $39 trillion for the first time, with a debt crisis looming again. Since the outbreak of the Iraq War, U.S. debt has accelerated, increasing from $38 trillion to $39 trillion in just 146 days. Since 2020, debt has surged by nearly $7 trillion, and it is expected to reach $40 trillion by 2026. The U.S. Treasury has increased borrowing due to the war, leading investors to turn to cash, which has strengthened the dollar and dampened market sentiment

U.S. debt surpasses 39 trillion for the first time, debt crisis approaches again