Following the sharp decline on March 23, the A-shares rebounded for two consecutive days on the 24th and 25th, quickly igniting discussions in the market about a &#34;reversal.&#34; However, peeling away the short-term emotional recovery and considering the current core macro background—geopolitics and global oil prices—this round of market activity needs to be re-evaluated.
Rather than a clarion call for a reversal, the rise over the past two days should be viewed as a typical oversold rebound. The core logic is that the main factor suppressing the market, namely the sharp escalation risk of the U.S.-Iran conflict, has only seen a temporary easing.
From recent developments, the White House has indeed released signals for negotiation, stating that the U.S. and Iran are &#34;continuing and productive&#34; in their contacts, and has thus postponed strikes on Iran's electricity and energy infrastructure. However, this easing is fragile; while the U.S. is sending negotiation signals, it has also clearly warned Iran &#34;not to misjudge the situation again,&#34; stating that if it refuses to accept reality, &#34;harsher actions&#34; will be taken. More importantly, the U.S. military has not halted its military deployments—reports indicate that the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit and its amphibious ships will soon arrive in the Middle East, and the Pentagon is even considering reallocating combat brigades from the 82nd Airborne Division for potential operations to seize Iran's oil export hub, Khark Island. Military analysts generally point out that an amphibious landing on Khark Island is a highly risky operation, and if the U.S. insists on proceeding, it could lead to a full-scale escalation of conflict. In other words, the clouds of a larger-scale conflict have not dissipated.
At the same time, global oil prices are still far from peaking. International investment banks have recently released reports, further raising oil price expectations, believing that in the context of continued disruptions to oil transport in the Strait of Hormuz, the market needs to continuously increase risk premiums to hedge against the risk of long-term supply interruptions. It is expected that the average price of Brent crude oil will reach $110 per barrel in the short term, and high oil prices may persist for a long time. In fact, since March, international oil prices have risen by more than 30%, and the global oil market is facing the largest supply disruption in history.
As long as oil prices remain high and uncertain, the stagflation logic of high inflation suppressing the economy and, in turn, suppressing corporate profits has not fundamentally reversed. The market has begun to price in this &#34;quasi-stagflation&#34; expectation, following the transmission chain of &#34;geopolitical conflict → oil price surge → inflation expectations rise → interest rate cut expectations narrow → asset revaluation,&#34; leading to widespread pressure on global stock markets. In this context, A-shares naturally cannot remain unaffected—main capital outflows are evident, and risk-averse sentiment is strong. Since the macro soil that drives the market out of the bottom has not improved, discussing a reversal now is indeed not solidly grounded.
Since this is an oversold rebound, the judgment at the operational level becomes much clearer. The market's rapid recovery in a short time is essentially a correction of the previously excessive pessimistic sentiment, rather than a trend-driven market based on fundamentals. The sustainability of such a recovery is often limited, especially after two consecutive days of rebound, as the pressure from accumulated profit-taking and position unwinding will significantly increase. Historically, after an oversold rebound, the probability of the market entering another adjustment or even a second bottom is not low. This does not mean that the rebound itself is meaningless, but rather that its operational rhythm determines that it is unlikely to be a one-time success
So, who is directing this rebound? In fact, there is no single &#34;director.&#34; It is more about the market itself undergoing a technical repair at extreme positions, combined with some funds speculating on the exhaustion of short-term bearish sentiment. It can be seen that the leading sectors in the past two days have not formed a clear main line; rather, it is more about the rotation of previously oversold varieties. This is characteristic of existing funds engaging in speculation and adjusting positions during the rebound, rather than a large influx of incremental funds entering the market with high ambitions. The so-called &#34;a rebound is not a bottom, and a bottom does not rebound,&#34; the current rapid repair market precisely indicates that market sentiment is still unstable, and there is still a distance from truly establishing a bottom.
For current investors, perhaps the most critical thing is not to guess where the rebound can reach, but to recognize the current stage and adjust their strategies accordingly. Since it is characterized as an oversold rebound, after a continuous rebound, one should actually exercise more caution in the short term. In a high-volatility environment, the worst thing is to chase highs and cut losses—rushing to enter out of fear of missing out after seeing two consecutive bullish candles may lead to buying at a short-term emotional peak; and once subsequent adjustments occur, panic may lead to cutting losses, and after several repetitions, the principal will be continuously eroded in the fluctuations.
A more rational approach is to shift the perspective back to the medium to long term. From the perspective of valuation and risk premium, this position already has considerable safety margins. If one agrees that the long-term logic of A-shares has not been completely disproven by geopolitical conflicts and high oil prices, then the current area has entered a range for phased layout for funds looking at the next three to five years.
For medium to long-term investors willing to take phased action at this position, the choice of direction is more critical than timing. A relatively clear consensus in the current market is centered around the certainty in the context of a &#34;high oil price + high volatility&#34; environment.
One category is related to upstream resources and energy alternatives, such as high-dividend coal, oil and gas extraction, and benefiting from energy transition nuclear power and ultra-high voltage, which provide a good safety cushion for cash flow and dividend yield against the backdrop of rising inflation. From a more macro perspective, in the context of the Kondratiev wave depression cycle combined with intensified geopolitical games, oil, gas, and coal, as irreplaceable strategic physical assets, have price resilience against inflation. The investment logic of energy companies has gradually transformed into characteristics of &#34;free cash flow + high dividends + continuous buybacks&#34; as dividend assets. At the same time, under the framework of energy independence, energy construction in certain regions, such as Xinjiang, has also attracted attention.
On the other hand, Europe’s accelerated process of energy independence has led to a systematic reassessment of the value of new energy in ensuring social stability, combined with rising fossil fuel prices, further highlighting the strategic value of state-owned enterprises in base-load and supply-guaranteeing energy assets such as nuclear power, large hydropower, and ultra-high voltage transmission. The role of nuclear power as a base-load power source is being strengthened, and its mechanism electricity price also has strong guarantees.
Another category is demand-driven, less affected by external geopolitical disturbances, such as essential consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and certain sub-sectors of military industry. The prosperity of these industries depends more on the domestic policy rhythm and demand recovery; in times of increased external uncertainty, the certainty of relative returns is stronger
In addition, against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical conflicts, the rise in prices of certain resources such as tungsten and the obstruction of shipping capacity have also created phase opportunities in the military and shipping sectors.
Overall, the consensus on medium to long-term allocation can be summarized into three lines: First, the energy security and dividend asset line represented by oil, gas, coal, and electricity (nuclear power, ultra-high voltage); second, the Chinese advantage manufacturing and price increase line represented by chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and electrical equipment; third, the military industry and certain domestic demand directions that have relatively certain prospects under external disturbances. For investors who do not want to make too many judgments on specific industries, broad-based indices or central enterprise modern energy ETFs are also options to consider for phased allocation.
The general principle remains those eight characters: maintain patience and allocate in batches. The market will not reward you for buying early, but it will reward you for enduring in the right direction.

After experiencing a significant drop on March 23, the A-shares rebounded consecutively on the 24th and 25th, sparking discussions in the market about a reversal. However, analyzing the current macroeconomic background, especially regarding geopolitical issues and global oil prices, this round of market activity should be viewed as a rebound from overselling. Although the risk of conflict between the U.S. and Iran has eased, the U.S. is still conducting military deployments, and the possibility of future conflicts remains. At the same time, international oil prices continue to rise and are expected to remain high for the long term, leading to high inflation that suppresses economic growth and corporate profits, putting pressure on global stock markets

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Has the rebound ended? After two consecutive days of gains in the A-shares, here are three practical suggestions for you