Since the Spring Festival, domestic pig prices have continued to decline, with pork hitting a seven-year low.
According to monitoring data from the China Pig Farming Network, as of March 25, the average price of external three-yuan pigs nationwide has dropped to 10.16 yuan/kg, about to break the psychological support level of 10 yuan/kg, marking a seven-year low since 2019, and is less than 30 cents away from the historical lowest value of 9.92 yuan/kg on May 2018.
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Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that in the second week of March, the average price of pigs nationwide was 11.38 yuan/kg, down 4.3% from the previous week and down 26.1% year-on-year. Prices in all 30 monitored provinces have declined. This price marks a seven-year low since 2019.
At the same time, on March 16, the main contract for pig futures, LH2605, closed at 10,860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.14%, hitting a historical low since its listing. Both spot and futures prices have hit bottom.
Industry monitoring indicates that current pig prices have fallen below the industry's breakeven line. Pig farming has been in a loss across the industry since October 2025, with continuous losses for six months as of March 2026. Even the cost-effective &#34;self-breeding and self-raising&#34; model has experienced continuous losses for five weeks.
To stabilize pork prices, several large pig farming enterprises have responded to the national pig production capacity control policy by reducing capacity starting in 2025. Mu Yuan Co., Ltd. had about 3.62 million breeding sows at the beginning of 2025, which decreased to 3.13 million by the end of January 2026, a cumulative reduction of 490,000 sows, a decrease of 13.5%. WENS also announced it would reduce its breeding sow inventory from 1.35 million at the end of 2025 to 1.28 million by the end of February 2026, a decrease of 5.2%.
Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, chief analyst for the pork industry chain monitoring and early warning at the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and chief expert on international livestock product production and trade early warning, told reporters from Jiupai Finance that this low point in pig prices has significant differences compared to previous ones.
On one hand, the PSY level and various supply-side indicators such as scale rate in this cycle have improved to varying degrees, effectively enhancing the industry's production efficiency; on the other hand, the proportion of pork in meat consumption has steadily decreased, with pork's share of meat consumption dropping from 62.1% in 2018 to 57.9% in 2025, further weakening demand-side support for pig prices.
For the most common small and medium-sized farmers, the most direct feeling is &#34;losing money on every pig raised.&#34; In this regard, Zhu Zengyong stated that the main cost pressure for current pig farming losses comes from feed costs. With the decline in pig prices and the increase in feed costs, small and medium-sized farmers are facing the risk of continued losses
Since 2026, corn prices have consistently been higher than the same period last year, rising from 2.44 yuan/kg in the first week of January to 2.49 yuan/kg in the third week of March, an increase of 0.8% month-on-month and 6.0% year-on-year. Soybean meal prices have fluctuated upward, increasing from 3.31 yuan/kg in the first week of January to 3.44 yuan/kg in the third week of March, a month-on-month increase of 1.8%. Although it has dropped 6.8% year-on-year, it has risen 4.0% compared to the beginning of the year.
Regarding the confusion about &#34;the industry has been reducing production capacity, yet pig prices have not risen,&#34; Zhu Zengyong explained that based on the 10-month cycle from breeding sows to market pigs, the effects of destocking have not yet become apparent. At the same time, after the New Year, pork consumption quickly enters the year's off-peak season, leading to weakened demand and continued declines in pig prices.
Zhu Zengyong predicts that pig prices will remain under pressure in the short term, but with improvements in supply and demand, pig prices are expected to recover in the second half of the year.
Starting from the third quarter of 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows began to be orderly reduced, indicating that supply pressure is expected to ease in the second quarter of 2026. Coupled with the demand for pork consumption driven by holiday stocking, pig prices are expected to gradually emerge from the trough, although the overall extent will still depend on the actual effects of capacity reduction, with a low probability of a turning point in the market.
Due to multiple factors, China has lowered the normal inventory of breeding sows from 41 million heads set in September 2021 to 39 million heads in February 2024, and it may be further reasonably adjusted downwards in the future. After effectively reducing the number of breeding sows, it will alleviate the supply pressure of live pigs and create basic conditions for the recovery of pig prices.
For small and medium-sized farmers who are still holding on at this stage, Zhu Zengyong suggests that while managing costs and disease prevention, they should first sell pigs in line with market trends to avoid blindly holding back and secondary fattening; secondly, they should timely eliminate low-yield sows to optimize farming efficiency and avoid blindly expanding production in hopes of market fluctuations, thus smoothly navigating this difficult period.
Intern reporter Wan Hao, reporter Wan Pei
Editor Wan Pei
【Source: JiuPai News】
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Domestic pig prices continue to decline, reaching a new seven-year low. On March 25, the average price of external three-yuan pigs has dropped to 10.16 yuan/kg, approaching the psychological support level. The national average price of pigs in March was 11.38 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 26.1%. The pig farming industry has been in continuous loss for six months since October 2025. To stabilize prices, many pig farming enterprises are responding to national regulatory policies by reducing production capacity. Experts indicate that this round of low pig prices is different from previous ones, with improved industry production efficiency and a decrease in the proportion of pork consumption

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SHUANGHUI

ChinaAMC CSI Agriculture Theme ETF

E Fund CSI Modern Agriculture Theme ETF

Penghua CSI Animal Husbandry ETF

Fullgoal CSI Agriculture Theme ETF

Guotai CSI Animal Husbandry ETF

WENS

Invesco Great Wall CSI All Share Agriculture, Animal Husbandry and Fishery Products ETF

China Merchants CSI Animal Husbandry ETF

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Ping An CSI Animal Husbandry ETF

MUYUAN

Hwabao WP CSI All Share Agriculture, Animal Husbandry and Fishery Products ETF

A new seven-year low, pig prices have dropped to over 5 yuan per kilogram, experts: improvement is expected in the second half of the year