The global power transformer market is facing a severe supply-demand imbalance, and Chinese manufacturers are seizing this opportunity to accelerate their acquisition of international market share.
According to &#34;Zhuifeng Trading Desk,&#34; Goldman Sachs stated in its latest research report released on March 26 that in January-February 2026, China's export value of transformers over 10MVA increased by 61% year-on-year, further accelerating from the 52% growth rate for the full year 2025; exports to the U.S. showed a particularly prominent increase, surging by 182% year-on-year.
Concurrently, Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the U.S. transformer supply-demand gap – it had previously predicted the gap would narrow from the current 72% to 57% by 2028, but has now revised this forecast upwards to approximately 60%, implying that the shortage situation will be more persistent than previously expected.
The root cause of the supply-demand imbalance lies in the rapid expansion of demand and the severe lag in local production capacity. Accelerated data center construction and grid modernization efforts have jointly driven up demand for transformers in the U.S. and Europe, while delivery lead times for large transformers have extended to 18 to 30 months.
Goldman Sachs estimates that U.S. transformer demand will increase by 9% to 12% from 2027 to 2028 due to incremental contributions from data centers, but local capacity expansion will only amount to about 2% to 4%. The gap continues to widen, creating significant opportunities for non-traditional suppliers from China, South Korea, Brazil, and Turkey.
<h2>U.S. Local Production Expansion Severely Lags, Supply-Demand Gap Continues to Widen</h2>
According to the Goldman Sachs report, in the first quarter of 2026, major global transformer manufacturers announced expansion plans one after another, but most of the new capacity will not be operational until 2027-2028 or even later.
GE Vernova announced on March 10 an investment of $200 million in Haiphong, Vietnam, to build a transformer factory primarily serving high-voltage direct current transmission projects, expected to commence production in 2028. Siemens Energy announced in February a total investment of $1 billion across multiple U.S. states, including a $421 million investment in its North Carolina plant to expand large power transformer capacity. Goldman Sachs estimates that this expansion plan will only increase U.S. domestic transformer capacity by 2% to 4% in 2027-2028.
Meanwhile, the Goldman Sachs U.S. team revised its data center power consumption forecast upwards in February of this year. Based on this, it is estimated that U.S. transformer demand will increase by 9% to 12% in 2027-2028. The speed of capacity expansion is far behind demand growth, and the supply-demand gap is rising instead of falling. Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for U.S. import dependency on transformers from the original 57% to about 60%. Currently, China accounts for about 4% of U.S. demand, and the overall import fulfillment rate is about 72%.
<h2>China's Exports Accelerate Across the Board, Exports to the U.S. Increase in Both Volume and Price</h2>
Against the backdrop of global supply-demand imbalance, China's transformer exports are entering an acceleration phase. In January-February 2026, the export value of China's high-power transformers (&gt;10MVA) totaled RMB 4.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 61%, further accelerating from the already strong 52% growth rate for the full year 2025 (full-year 2025 export value was RMB 22.5 billion).
From the perspective of export destinations, the Middle East contributed the most (34% share, up 32% year-on-year), Asia showed the most vigorous growth (26% share, up 151% year-on-year), Europe accounted for 21% (up 36% year-on-year), the Americas accounted for 14% (up 45% year-on-year), and Africa accounted for 6% (up 344% year-on-year).
Among these, export performance to the U.S. was particularly outstanding. In January-February 2026, the export value of Chinese transformers to the U.S. increased by 182% year-on-year, a significant leap from the 48% growth rate for the full year 2025. In terms of product structure, transformers of 10-220MVA accounted for about 59% of exports to the U.S., 220-330MVA accounted for about 20%, and those over 330MVA accounted for about 20%. Despite this, China's current share in the U.S. transformer market is still only about 4%, while the overall U.S. dependency on imported transformers is as high as about 72%, indicating extremely broad penetration potential for Chinese products.
On the pricing front, the average price of Chinese transformer exports to the U.S. is showing an overall upward trend. According to the Goldman Sachs report, in January-February 2026, the average selling price of Chinese transformer exports to the U.S. rose by 6% year-on-year. Among these, the high-capacity segment of 220-330MVA showed particularly strong performance, with the three-month rolling average price (December 2025 to February 2026) increasing by 53% year-on-year; the average price for the 10-220MVA segment decreased by 14% year-on-year due to changes in product structure, with considerable data volatility.
Furthermore, in the U.S. domestic market, the producer price index (PPI) for power and specialty transformers has doubled compared to 2020 levels, with a slight increase in December 2025, and remaining flat month-on-month since the beginning of 2026, but still up about 6% year-on-year. Goldman Sachs noted that the super-inflationary period of 2022 has passed, but prices remain at historical highs. Regarding key transformer raw materials, the price of grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) has remained largely stable since 2026 after a significant rise in 2022; copper prices have continued to rise, putting some pressure on costs.
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The global power transformer market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with Chinese manufacturers accelerating their market share acquisition. A Goldman Sachs report indicates that China's exports of transformers over 10MVA increased by 61% year-on-year in January-February 2026, with exports to the U.S. surging by 182%. The U.S. transformer supply-demand gap is expected to persist until 2028, with the deficit revised upwards from 72% to approximately 60%. Rapid demand growth coupled with lagging domestic production capacity are the primary reasons. U.S. transformer demand is projected to increase by 9% to 12% in 2027-2028, while domestic capacity is expected to grow by only 2% to 4%

- The global power transformer market is experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance, with Chinese manufacturers rapidly expanding their international market share.  
- A report by Goldman Sachs indicates that from January to February 2026, China's exports of transformers over 10 MVA surged by 61% year-on-year, particularly notable for a 182% increase in exports to the U.S.  
- Despite the increased exports, China's share of the U.S. transformer market remains around 4%, indicating substantial potential for growth amidst a continuing supply shortage.

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Global "Transformer Shortage"! China's Exports Surge 61% in Two Months, U.S. Exports Skyrocket 182%, U.S. Shortage May Last Until 2028