Report Overview: Institutional behavior is gradually becoming the core variable affecting the short-term trends and operational rhythm of the credit bond market. The steepening of the yield curve, the prominence of structural markets, and the intensification of qualification spreads may become core characteristics of the market.
Funds: Behavior elasticity is significant under liability-driven conditions, with the 2026 toolization and structural characteristics continuing to deepen. 1) Core characteristics of bond allocation: dominated by the liability side, focusing on duration and leverage. Firstly, the redemption pressure on the liability side directly determines asset allocation, easily forming pro-cyclical trading behavior. Secondly, leverage is subject to regulatory constraints, and duration adjustments are highly correlated with market conditions and liability side pressures. Thirdly, policy changes in 2025 and the concentration of product maturities will directly trigger significant fluctuations in fund bond allocation behavior. 2) The trend of toolization in 2026 is prominent, with continuous structural impacts. Under the new fee regulations, the product substitution effect is evident, with short-term trading becoming toolized and medium to long-term allocations performance-oriented. The pace of opening amortized bond funds in 2026 remains a key variable, dominating the structural market of credit bonds. Attention should be paid to potential policy benefits for credit bonds and sci-tech bonds ETFs, with scale expansion driving the valuation recovery and liquidity improvement of component bonds.
Wealth Management: Challenges of comprehensive net value. 1) Core characteristics of bond allocation: allocation-focused trading is weakened, with significant seasonal bond allocation patterns. On one hand, wealth management bond allocation centers on holding to maturity, with trading attributes continuously weakening, and the willingness to allocate is positively correlated with credit spreads. On the other hand, seasonal bond allocation patterns are clear, with opportunities for short-term varieties to compress spreads during specific windows. 2) Stabilizing net value is core in 2026, with the direction of fund flows becoming critical. Under comprehensive net value, the stabilizing function of the bond market weakens, with low-volatility, high-liquidity assets becoming the preferred allocation. The peak of high-interest deposit repricing affects the demand structure for credit bonds.
Insurance: Rebalancing stocks and bonds in 2026. 1) Core characteristics of bond allocation: liability-driven long-duration allocation, with allocation rhythm influenced by multiple factors. The liability side has long funding terms and rigid costs, with premium income showing seasonal characteristics and a slowdown in growth. The allocation rhythm is driven by multiple factors, with significant timing characteristics for high-interest rate configurations. Asset allocation is diversified, with local bonds as core allocation varieties, actively seeking alternative assets after the contraction of non-standard assets. Insurance funds serve as a core force for long-duration credit bonds, possessing significant market pricing power. 2) Rebalancing stocks and bonds in 2026 + new standards, with allocation styles becoming more cautious. On one hand, rebalancing begins in a low-interest-rate environment, with an increased proportion of equity asset allocation, while pure bond incremental allocation funds may be limited. On the other hand, non-listed insurance companies fully implement new accounting standards, and preferences for perpetual bonds may further contract, with credit sinking becoming more cautious.
Overall, the short-term trends and operational rhythm of the credit bond market in 2026 will still be dominated by institutional behavior. The marginal behavioral changes of the three core allocation entities—funds, wealth management, and insurance—will reshape the market structure from aspects such as duration structure, spread trends, and variety differentiation, presenting three core characteristics: the credit bond yield curve continues to steepen, the capacity to absorb long-duration varieties may be limited; product innovation and maturity rhythm drive structural markets to become mainstream characteristics; changes in insurance allocation preferences, with perpetual bonds and medium to low-grade credit bonds likely to remain under pressure
Risk Warning: Changes in fundamentals exceeding expectations, unexpected credit risk events, omissions or errors in data statistics, etc.
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Report Source
The above content is excerpted from the securities research report published by Guotai Junan Securities.
Report Title: Who is Stabilizing Credit Spreads: An Analysis Framework for Credit Bond Institutional Behavior - Changes and Outlook for Credit Bond Institutional Behavior in 2026; Report Date: 2026.03.26 Report Authors:
Zhang Zirui (Analyst), Registration Number: S0880525040068
Tang Yuanmao (Analyst), Registration Number: S0880524040002
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This article analyzes the changes in institutional behavior in the credit bond market and its impact on market trends. Institutional behavior has become a core variable affecting credit spreads, and it is expected that by 2026, there will be a deepening of tool-based and structural characteristics. Different institutions such as funds, wealth management, and insurance face various challenges and opportunities when allocating bonds, especially in the context of liability-driven and market volatility. Attention to policy benefits for credit bonds and Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs may promote market liquidity and valuation recovery

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