CNR News Beijing, March 27 (Reporter Zou Xuchen) Wind data shows that the lithium battery index (884039.WI) rose by 3.18% on March 27. Among the 104 listed companies in the sector, 92 saw their stock prices rise, demonstrating strong overall performance.
From the perspective of individual stocks in the industry chain, YOUNGY (002192.SZ) achieved a four-day consecutive rise, while Shinghwa (603026.SH) secured a two-day consecutive rise; multiple stocks including Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240.SZ), Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ), Haike New Energy (301292.SZ), Jiangte Motor (002176.SZ), Jinyuan Co., Ltd. (000546.SZ), and Chuaneng Power (000155.SZ) hit the daily limit.
Industry experts stated that there have been positive changes on both the supply and demand sides of the lithium battery industry chain recently.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OzXVhN6rSsz0YgmZCp8OMSEN1CwHCgF2C1qNOamL65hIYAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OzXVhN6rSsz0YgmZCp8OMSEN1CwHCgF2C1qNOamL65hIYAA/641"/>
Lithium battery index increase. Image source: Wind
Lithium Carbonate Stops Declining and Warms Up
According to Tonghuashun data, the main contract for lithium carbonate (LCZL.GFE) has shown significant price fluctuations over the past month.
On February 25, local time, the Zimbabwe Ministry of Mines announced that it had suspended all exports of raw ore and lithium concentrate, effective immediately. The market reacted quickly, and on February 26, the price of the main contract for lithium carbonate surged to 187,700 points, a significant increase of 12.75% compared to the previous trading day's closing price.
At that time, regarding the impact of the ban on listed companies, CNR Finance reporters interviewed several companies involved in lithium mining in Zimbabwe, including Zhongmin Resources (002738.SZ), Shengxin Lithium Energy, Yahua Group (002497.SZ), Tianhua New Energy (300390.SZ), and Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH). Many companies stated that the impact was minimal or nonexistent.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OpKivq727YO3EJBkywZE7zBR0Pa1z_xv-ElpodKJY_cNQAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OpKivq727YO3EJBkywZE7zBR0Pa1z_xv-ElpodKJY_cNQAA/641"/>
Main contract for lithium carbonate (LCZL.GFE) trend. Image source: Tonghuashun
After peaking on February 26, the price of the main contract for lithium carbonate began to decline. As of the market close on March 20, the price had fallen to 143,900 points. However, the market trend reversed, and the price of the main contract for lithium carbonate resumed its upward trajectory, closing at 168,440 points on March 27, with a single-day increase of 6.12% and a cumulative increase of 14.17% for the week.
From the news perspective, Yahua Group responded on the Interactive Easy platform on March 19, stating that the company is actively communicating and coordinating with the Zimbabwe Ministry of Mines and relevant departments to strive for the early resumption of exports for projects in Zimbabwe. Looking back at previous statements, the company had indicated on February 26 that the relevant export applications could be approved as soon as 1-2 weeks
China Mineral Resources stated on the evening of March 26 through the Interactive Yi platform that the company is highly concerned about relevant policies in Zimbabwe and is maintaining regular communication with local authorities.
Regarding the latest developments in Zimbabwe's policies, a representative from Shengxin Lithium Energy told reporters from China National Radio Finance that they are still in communication with the local government and currently cannot export, but the impact on the company is minimal.
Liu Zhigeng, a well-known financial and tax expert and researcher at the Su-Gang Management Accounting and Auditing Research Institute, analyzed that Zimbabwe's suspension of lithium concentrate exports is essentially a restructuring of the lithium industry supply chain led by resource countries. In the short term, the supply shock combined with emotional speculation will amplify price elasticity, directly tightening market supply expectations and driving a strong rebound in lithium prices, while also exacerbating the differentiation among companies in the industry, highlighting the competitive advantages of compliant and localized enterprises.
In the medium term, the raised policy thresholds will promote an increase in industry concentration, and strict restrictions on export qualifications will accelerate the elimination of non-compliant trading enterprises. Compliant companies with mining rights and supporting mineral processing plants will gain a &#34;green channel&#34; for exports granted by policies, and the premium effect of localized resource processing will gradually become apparent.
In the long term, this will force Chinese companies to upgrade their overseas business models. The policy of &#34;prohibiting raw ore exports and encouraging local deep processing&#34; is becoming a common policy orientation among global resource countries, which will drive the transformation of Chinese companies' overseas lithium resource layouts from simply &#34;buying mines&#34; to an integrated model of &#34;mining + building factories,&#34; thereby raising the cost center of the global lithium industry chain.
Liu Zhigeng predicts that against this backdrop, domestic lithium extraction from salt lakes and lithium extraction from lithium mica, which are self-controllable resource development paths, will be more favored by the capital market, and the valuations of related companies are expected to receive premium support.
Expectations for Lithium Battery Demand Increase
Driven by multiple factors, the trend of proactive inventory replenishment in the industry has emerged. Relevant data shows that in March, the production scheduling across the entire lithium battery industry chain significantly rebounded, with domestic battery sample companies experiencing a month-on-month increase of 21.93% in production scheduling.
Additionally, the Guangdong Battery Industry Association predicts that global lithium battery shipments will exceed 2.5 TWh by 2026, with energy storage battery shipments exceeding 900 GWh, further increasing industry concentration.
Market participants point out that looking ahead, annual demand will continue to benefit from the dual demand pull of energy storage and power batteries, with positive trends in lithium battery production scheduling. On one hand, energy storage maintains a strong supply and demand, supported by domestic new energy storage capacity price compensation policies, a surge in overseas AI data center construction, and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East driving up energy prices, further boosting energy storage demand. On the other hand, the current high oil price environment enhances the economic viability of electric vehicles, raising expectations for lithium battery demand.
Dongguan Securities' research report also noted that the lithium battery industry chain's production scheduling significantly recovered in March, and pre-production scheduling in April is expected to continue to increase month-on-month, indicating strong downstream demand. Resource disruptions continue, with Zimbabwe's lithium mine export ban still in place, increasing supply uncertainties, which may provide price support for upstream materials. Overall, the supply and demand pattern of the industry chain is expected to continue to improve throughout the year, with both volume and price expected to rise.
Senior investment banker Wang Jiyue analyzed to reporters from China National Radio Finance that China's new energy industry is at the forefront globally in terms of scale and technology. The significant fluctuations in international oil prices and the uncertainties in future trends will accelerate the global energy structure transformation process, directly benefiting the export and market expansion of China's new energy industry chain
Despite the recent increase in volatility of crude oil prices, as of intraday March 27, according to Tonghuashun data, the price of Brent crude oil futures (BRNOY) reached USD 110.87 per barrel, significantly up from USD 73.21 per barrel at the end of February.
Dongguan Securities research report suggests focusing on leading companies in various segments of the industrial chain, especially in areas with relatively tight supply such as batteries, lithium carbonate, 6F, VC, lithium iron phosphate, and separators

561910

159796

603026

159840

159155

002192

002497

561160

The lithium battery sector surged on March 27, with the lithium battery index rising by 3.18%. Among 104 listed companies, 92 saw their stock prices increase, with multiple stocks such as YOUNGY and Shinghwa hitting the daily limit. The price of lithium carbonate showed significant fluctuations; due to Zimbabwe's suspension of lithium ore exports, the main contract price of lithium carbonate once rose to 187,700 points, then fell back to 143,900 points, but as of March 27, it rose again to 168,440 points, with a single-day increase of 6.12%. Yahua Group is in communication with Zimbabwe to strive for the resumption of exports

腾讯新闻 - 财经

China Merchants CSI Battery Theme ETF

China Universal CSI Battery Theme ETF

Shinghwa

ICBCCS CNI NEV Battery ETF

Dacheng CSI Battery Thematic ETF

YOUNGY

Yahua Group

Fullgoal CSI Battery Theme ETF

The lithium battery sector is experiencing a strong rise. What are the new developments on both the supply and demand sides?