Ask AI · How will 180 billion in insurance premiums drive the trillion-yuan nursing market in five years?
CSC Research
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Written by: Yuan Qinghui, Wang Zaicun, Liu Ruofei, Shen Yi, Tang Ran, He Juying
China is vigorously promoting the long-term care insurance system. We have compared the long-term care insurance policies of several key countries overseas and believe that China's long-term care insurance policy design is relatively scientific. The National Healthcare Security Administration is actively promoting it, aiming to achieve nationwide unified coverage by the end of 2028, which is of great significance for disabled individuals and their family members. According to our estimates, the total premium scale of long-term care insurance in China is expected to reach around 180 billion yuan in five years, which will drive a demand for an incremental nursing market exceeding one trillion yuan in the long term, stimulating domestic demand in related industries. We are optimistic about investment opportunities in certain home appliances, medical equipment, and elderly care-related companies.
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The nationwide promotion of long-term care insurance will accelerate in 2026, driving domestic demand in related industries.
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Industry policy risk: The risk of changes in research design requirements, price changes, changes in volume-based procurement policies, and changes in the scope and proportion of medical insurance reimbursement due to adjustments in industry policies. In particular, changes in centralized procurement and medical insurance payment policies have a significant impact on industry development expectations.
Research and development risk: There are risks of uncertainty in clinical enrollment progress, efficacy results, and safety results data during the research and development process of new drugs and devices.
Approval risk: There is a risk of extended approval cycles due to factors such as the need for supplementary materials and changes in the approval process.
Macroeconomic volatility risk: A further slowdown in global economic growth may affect downstream demand, and international relations also need to be considered
Climate change, inflation, and risks related to exchange rates and interest rates.

Research report title: &#34;Pharmaceutical Industry Weekly: Long-term Care Insurance Nationwide Rollout: Aging + Policy Drive, Stimulating New Blue Ocean in the Silver Economy&#34;
External release date: March 29, 2026
Analysts of this report:
Yuan Qinghui SAC No.: S1440520030001
SFC No.: BPW879
Wang Zaicun SAC No.: S1440521070003
Liu Ruofei SAC No.: S1440519080003
SFC No.: BVX723
Shen Yi SAC No.: S1440525080005
Tang Ran SAC No.: S1440524100001
He Juying SAC No.: S1440517050001
SFC No.: ASZ591

601066

159842

512000

06066

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The research report from CSC points out that China is advancing the long-term care insurance system, with premiums expected to reach 180 billion yuan in five years, driving a trillion-yuan nursing market demand. The policy design is scientific, and the Medical Insurance Bureau strives to achieve nationwide unified coverage by the end of 2028. Related industries will benefit from domestic demand, especially home appliances, medical equipment, and elderly care companies. The report also mentions industry policies, research and development, and approval risks, as well as macroeconomic fluctuations that may affect downstream demand

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CSC | National rollout of long-term care insurance: Aging + policy drive, stimulating a new blue ocean in the silver economy