Will Stock Market Open Up Or Down Today?

The S&P 500 extended its losing streak on Monday, falling 0.39% to close at 6,343.72, as rising oil prices and weakness in technology stocks continued to pressure the broader market.

The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is leaning bullish heading into Tuesday. The March 31 market shows a majority of traders betting "Up," with early trading activity building on whether the S&P 500 will open higher or lower.

Why That Number Matters

Crude prices surged at the start of the week, with U.S. oil settling above $102 per barrel — its highest level since 2022 — amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over supply disruptions.

However, prices turned lower in overnight trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump is open to ending military hostilities even if the Strait of Hormuz remains partially restricted, raising hopes of de-escalation.

Markets have reacted sharply to each shift in headlines. The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street's fear gauge, briefly moved above 30 during Monday's session, reflecting heightened uncertainty.

At the same time, investors are monitoring economic signals. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said inflation expectations remain "well anchored," easing concerns about immediate rate hikes despite rising energy costs.

Traders will also be watching consumer confidence data and JOLTS job openings due Tuesday, which could provide further insight into the strength of the U.S. economy.

The Bull Case

Futures are pointing higher as oil prices retreat and optimism around a potential resolution in the Middle East improves risk sentiment. At 4.30 AM ET, S&P 500 futures were up 0.94%.

Markets have shown a pattern of rebounding on signs of easing tensions, even as underlying uncertainty remains.

How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Monday at 6,403.37, above the prior close of 6,368.85, as early-week optimism supported premarket sentiment. The March 30 Polymarket bet resolved "Up," with traders correctly anticipating a higher open on $484,811 in traded volume.

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