<p>SpaceX has confidentially filed its IPO application, seeking to raise over $50 billion with a potential valuation of $1.75 trillion, which could surpass Saudi Aramco to become the largest IPO in history. This news has reignited hope in the global large-cap IPO market, which has been dormant for years, but opinions are divided on whether it can truly trigger a new wave of listings.</p><p>As previously reported by Wallstreetcn.com, SpaceX has confidentially filed its IPO application. If the offering is completed at the mentioned scale, it would far exceed the approximately $1.7 trillion IPO record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019, becoming the largest stock issuance globally. Following the announcement, attention on the rocket company led by Musk has surged, with investors closely assessing whether the public market can absorb an issuance of this magnitude.</p><p>Analysts point out that <strong>SpaceX's listing will be a true stress test of the public market's current absorptive capacity. If the offering proceeds smoothly, it will send a clear signal to the market that the window for listing large, high-valuation companies has reopened, and it may provide endorsement for other long-shelved mega IPO projects.</strong> However, some argue that SpaceX is too unique, and its success may not necessarily lead to a broader IPO market recovery; it could even crowd out other issuers by absorbing significant funds and attention.</p><h2>Largest IPO in History on the Horizon</h2><p>SpaceX is seeking to raise $50 billion or more, with a potential valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. Samuel Kerr, Global Head of Content at Mergermarket, stated: &#34;At the scale being discussed, SpaceX would be the largest IPO in history, bar none. This would be a genuine test of public market capacity in a truly volatile period. But if any company can go public in this environment, it's likely to be SpaceX given its sheer market heat.&#34;</p><p>The last company to go public with a valuation exceeding a trillion dollars was Saudi Aramco in 2019. Since then, influenced by rising interest rates, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical tensions, the global large-cap IPO market has experienced a prolonged downturn, with many issuers opting to wait for a favorable window that has yet to open. The industry generally anticipates a full recovery of large-cap listings by 2026.</p><h2>Valuation Logic: The &#34;Scarce Narrative&#34; of Rockets, Satellites, and AI</h2><p>SpaceX's high valuation is supported by multiple business segments. According to a Reuters report in January citing sources, SpaceX achieved revenues of approximately $15-16 billion and profits of around $8 billion last year, a level of profitability rare among tech unicorns.</p><p>In February, Musk announced that SpaceX had completed the acquisition of its artificial intelligence startup xAI, valuing SpaceX at $1 trillion and xAI at $250 billion. Reuters reported, citing sources, that this merger integrates the Starship launch business, Starlink satellite internet, and AI capabilities into a single entity.</p><p>Minmo Gahng, Assistant Professor of Finance at Cornell University, commented, &#34;The incorporation of xAI allows Musk to package launches, Starlink, and AI into a single, scarce super-story, the combination of which can support a valuation higher than the sum of its parts if each business were to list independently.&#34;</p><h2>Bellwether or Fleeting Phenomenon?</h2><p>Analysts are clearly divided on whether SpaceX's listing can drive a broader IPO market recovery. **Kat Liu, Vice President of IPO research firm IPOX, is optimistic, stating: &#34;SpaceX's successful listing could serve as a catalyst for other large IPOs, demonstrating the depth and willingness of the public market to digest large, high-valuation offerings, and helping to validate pricing levels in the late-stage private market.&#34;</p><p>However, Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economic Strategist at Annex Wealth Management, told Reuters that SpaceX's case could be &#34;either a bellwether or a bad omen.&#34; He noted that the enthusiasm surrounding the company is sufficient to attract investors, but its unique nature—especially Musk's celebrity status—might instead divert market attention from other space stocks rather than boosting the sector as a whole.</p><p>Samuel Kerr of Mergermarket warned from a market capacity perspective: &#34;SpaceX could occupy too much market capacity, leading other large issuers to postpone their offerings, unwilling to compete in the same window.&#34;</p><h2>Current IPO Market Status: Recovery Yet to Be Verified</h2><p>From current data, the overall performance of the IPO market remains lackluster. Indices tracking major newly listed stocks have consistently underperformed broad market benchmarks over the past 12 months, reflecting a lack of widespread investor enthusiasm for new stocks.</p><p>Meanwhile, SpaceX is not the only super-unicorn operating at a scale close to that of a public company. High-profile private companies like OpenAI and ByteDance have valuations comparable to top S&amp;P 500 constituents, blurring the lines between public and private markets. Once SpaceX goes public, it will directly enter the league of mega-cap companies like Microsoft and Apple, competing for retail and institutional investor capital.</p><p>Analysts generally believe that the outcome of SpaceX's listing will provide an important reference for other long-shelved large listing projects in capital-intensive industries—whether it reopens the market window or further delays the timeline for market recovery.</p>

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<p>SpaceX's listing will be a true stress test of the public market's current absorptive capacity. If the offering proceeds smoothly, it will send a clear signal to the market that the window for listing large, high-valuation companies has reopened, and it may provide endorsement for other long-shelved mega IPO projects</p>

- SpaceX has confidentially submitted an IPO application seeking to raise over $50 billion, with a potential valuation of $1.75 trillion, possibly becoming the largest IPO in history.  
- This move has rekindled hopes for a revival in the global IPO market after years of stagnation, although opinions vary on its broader impact.  
- Analysts suggest that if successful, SpaceX's IPO could validate the public market's capacity for high-valuation offerings, while concerns remain about its unique position potentially overshadowing other issuers.

SpaceX IPO Countdown: Will the Global Large IPO Market's Fate Hinge on This?