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In the first half of last year, while the market was still hesitating, the &#34;national team&#34; was quietly buying. By the end of 2025, the total market value of ETFs held by the &#34;national team,&#34; represented by Central Huijin Investment Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as &#34;Central Huijin&#34;), reached 1.53 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly half compared to the previous year.
At the beginning of this year, the situation changed dramatically. The A-share market was once euphoric, with the Shanghai Composite Index soaring to 4,197 points, followed by regulatory cooling measures, and the &#34;national team's&#34; holdings began to loosen. Although there was a brief inflow of funds during this period, the overall ETF market still showed a net outflow trend, with the fund size falling from over 6 trillion yuan to around 5 trillion yuan.
As of now, the latest fund shares of several CSI 300 ETFs and CSI 1000 ETFs have significantly dropped below the holdings of the &#34;national team&#34; at the end of last year. According to estimates by Yicai, at least 12 products have reduced their holdings by over 160 billion shares. Industry insiders believe that this round of &#34;rhythm management&#34; may have basically ended, and the current net outflow of broad-based ETFs has significantly slowed. The A-share index is expected to remain mainly in a range-bound fluctuation, with a focus on how geopolitical conflicts unfold and whether corporate profits can be realized.
&#34;National Team&#34; ETF Operation Route
As the most influential institutional funds in the A-share market, the allocation trends of the &#34;national team&#34; always stir market nerves.
According to statistics from Yicai based on Wind data, in terms of total market value of ETFs held, by the end of last year, Central Huijin, Central Huijin Asset Management Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as &#34;Huijin Asset&#34;), and Guoxin Investment Co., Ltd. under China Reform Holdings Corporation Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as &#34;Guoxin Investment&#34;) held ETF total market values of 797.3 billion yuan, 729 billion yuan, and 1.3 billion yuan, respectively. The three institutions collectively held 1.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 46% compared to the previous year's 1.045 trillion yuan.
The reporter found that Central Huijin mainly focused on long-term holdings throughout the year, remaining basically &#34;inactive&#34; last year, with a total of 21 ETF products held amounting to 19.731 billion shares, a year-on-year decrease of 138 million shares. Yicai noted that this change in shareholding was not due to active adjustments but resulted from the splitting or merging of ETF products.
In March last year, the E Fund CSI 50 ETF underwent a fund share merger (with a ratio of about 0.497), which reduced Central Huijin's holdings by 92.792 million shares; in September, the Tianhong ChiNext ETF underwent a fund share split (i.e., each 1 share of the fund was split into 2 shares), which increased its holdings by 231 million shares.
In contrast, Huijin Asset showed a significant increase in holdings in the first half of the year, with total fund shares increasing by over 65.886 billion shares, a year-on-year increase of nearly 60% to 178.514 billion shares, and the average holding ratio rising from 25.94% to 38.01%
According to statistics from Yicai, Huijin Asset has increased its holdings in a total of 12 ETF products, including an additional 11.237 billion shares of Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, 9.445 billion shares of ChinaAMC CSI 300 ETF, 8.931 billion shares of E Fund CSI 300 ETF, and 8.183 billion shares of ChinaAMC China 50 ETF.
In addition, broad-based products such as Harvest CSI 300 ETF, as well as small and mid-cap style products like China Southern CSI 1000 ETF, and growth-oriented varieties such as E Fund SSE STAR Market 50 ETF, have also seen increases ranging from 860 million to 5.657 billion shares.
Similarly, Guoxin Investment, which also adjusted its positions in the first half of the year, mainly focuses on central enterprise-themed ETFs. Data shows that it currently holds 3 ETF products with a total of 1.248 billion shares, a decrease of 166 million shares compared to the end of last year, with a decline of over 10%.
According to statistics from Yicai, this institution mainly increased its holdings by 133 million shares of China Southern CSI Guoxin Central Enterprise Technology Leading ETF, and 23.91 million shares of Invesco Great Wall CSI Guoxin Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF; at the same time, it reduced its holdings by 8.91 million shares of China Southern CSI Guoxin Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF and completely liquidated 218 million shares of GF CSI Guoxin Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF and 9.5 million shares of Bosera Central Enterprise Innovation Driven ETF.
From the perspective of major holdings, the aforementioned &#34;national team&#34; covers 26 ETFs, of which 11 have holdings exceeding 10 billion shares. Among them, 4 CSI 300 ETFs collectively hold 206.9 billion shares, while another core target, ChinaAMC China 50 ETF, has nearly 48.8 billion shares, accounting for more than two-thirds, with a market value benchmark reaching 1.13 trillion yuan, accounting for over 74%.
&#34;Rhythm management&#34; may be coming to an end
Since the beginning of this year, the market has seen new changes.
At the beginning of the year, A-share sentiment was once high, with the SSE Index peaking at 4,197.23 points and market turnover approaching 4 trillion yuan, showing signs of overheating, prompting regulators to introduce a series of cooling measures. Meanwhile, funds have accelerated their withdrawal from the ETF market. Although there was a brief inflow of funds during significant declines in A-shares due to geopolitical conflicts, the overall trend remains one of net outflow.
Wind data shows that as of April 1, the total market ETF scale reached 5.06 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.96 trillion yuan from the 6.02 trillion yuan at the end of last year, a decline of nearly 16%.
Among various products, broad-based ETFs are showing a significant net outflow of funds, with net redemptions exceeding 1.17 trillion yuan this year, among which ETF products linked to the CSI 300 have experienced the most severe &#34;blood loss,&#34; with net outflows exceeding 610 billion yuan; products in the direction of CSI 1000 and SSE 50 have also seen net outflows of over 100 billion yuan
It is worth noting that multiple ETF products have experienced a phenomenon of &#34;share inversion,&#34; where the current fund shares are lower than the holdings of the &#34;national team&#34; at the end of last year. According to statistics from Yicai, among the 26 ETFs held by the &#34;national team,&#34; 12 products have fund shares lower than their previous holding levels.
Among them, the current fund shares of the four CSI 300 ETFs are 115.844 billion shares, a decrease of nearly 91.1 billion shares from the 206.9 billion shares held by the &#34;national team&#34; at the end of last year, a decline of over 44%.
Taking Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF as an example, the latest fund shares of this product are 44.812 billion shares, while the &#34;national team&#34; held 73.513 billion shares at the end of last year. This means that the &#34;national team&#34; has at least reduced its holdings by over 28.7 billion shares since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, the CSI 300 ETF E Fund, CSI 300 ETF ChinaAMC, and CSI 300 ETF Harvest have been reduced by at least 24.2 billion shares, 22.6 billion shares, and 15.6 billion shares, respectively.
In addition, several broad-based ETFs have shown a phenomenon where the holdings of the Huijin system are lower than the total fund shares, further confirming the reduction actions. Products such as SSE 50 ETF ChinaAMC, CSI 1000 ETF under Southern, ChinaAMC, GF, and Fortune Fund, CSI 500 ETF Southern, and ChiNext ETF E Fund have also seen reductions ranging from tens to hundreds of billions of shares.
Apart from the Huijin system, Guoxin Investment has also taken action. For instance, the current fund shares of the Central Enterprise Technology ETF Southern are 359 million shares, which is also lower than the 861 million shares held by the institution at the end of last year, indicating a reduction of at least 500 million shares. Overall estimates suggest that the &#34;national team&#34; has reduced its holdings in these 12 ETF products by at least 160 billion shares.
Industry insiders believe that the &#34;national team's&#34; reduction and regulatory cooling both belong to &#34;rhythm management,&#34; with the core purpose being to curb excessive leverage and speculative trading, prevent market disorder, and create a stable environment for the continuation of the market, rather than signaling the end of the market.
A public fund research analyst in South China told Yicai that historically, rapid bull markets can lead to significant market volatility, while slow bull markets can provide a stable entry window for resident funds, allowing the profit effect to be gradually released. &#34;It can be seen that after multiple cooling measures, the strong thematic market has come to an end.&#34;
In his view, as the annual reports and quarterly reports enter a period of intensive disclosure, the core contradiction in the market will focus on how geopolitical conflicts unfold and whether corporate profits can be realized. Overall, the A-share index may still primarily experience range-bound fluctuations, with opportunities in purely thematic directions or rapidly rotating hot sectors likely to be relatively limited.
Currently, several institutional personnel have indicated that the net outflow of funds from broad-based ETFs has slowed, and the phase of portfolio adjustment may be nearing its end. &#34;The selling phase of the 'national team' has ended,&#34; said a Chinese stock analyst from a large foreign institution, noting that this round of selling behavior has basically stopped. &#34;The 'national team' currently may have more 'ammunition' available to stabilize the market and supplement liquidity when necessary.&#34;
From the data, it can be seen that the funding attitude has recently changed. Taking the ETF products linked to the CSI 300 Index as an example, Wind data shows that as of April 1, in the last six weeks, the weekly net outflow of the CSI 300 ETF in the first three weeks was all below 7.1 billion yuan, followed by two weeks of net subscriptions.
(This article is from Yicai)

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The total market value of the "national team" holdings in the ETF market has reached 1.53 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 50% compared to last year. Although the A-share market was once enthusiastic, regulatory measures have led to a loosening of the "national team" holdings, resulting in an overall net outflow in the ETF market, with fund sizes decreasing from 6 trillion yuan to 5 trillion yuan. The latest fund shares of several ETFs are significantly lower than the holdings at the end of last year. Industry insiders believe that the current net outflow of broad-based ETFs is slowing down, and the A-share index will mainly fluctuate within a range, suggesting attention to geopolitical conflicts and corporate earnings

腾讯新闻 - 财经

CSI 500

E Fund CSI 300 ETF Initiating Fund

GF CSI 500 ETF

Shenzhen Index

ChinaAMC China 50 ETF

SSE 50

ChinaAMC CSI 300 ETF

Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF

China Southern CSI 500 ETF

ChinaAMC CSI 500 ETF

SSE Index

CSI 300

China Southern CSI 300 ETF

1.53 trillion yuan ETF rebalancing analysis, what are the mysteries behind the "national team" movements?