<div id="readability-page-1" class="page"><div>By Dharamraj Dhutia and Jaspreet KalraMUMBAI, April 6 (Reuters) - India's rupee and government bond markets this week will take cues from the Iran conflict and the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy commentary, as investors gauge the impact of energy supply disruptions ‌on the country's economy.Traders in the foreign exchange market expect the currency to find support from the unwinding of residual arbitrage positions after ‌the central bank tightened foreign-exchange rules last week.Boosted by the central bank's clampdown on speculative wagers, the rupee rallied nearly 2% week-on-week to 93.10, its best weekly performance since November 2022.India's ​central bank has taken measures to curb arbitrage and speculative trades that bet against the rupee.The measures come as worries over a deepening conflict in the Middle East keep oil prices elevated and also prompted foreign investors to yank money from Indian assets at a record pace.The war has killed thousands, sparked an energy crisis and threatens lasting damage to the world economy. U.S. President Donald Trump said a deal with Iran is possible by Monday while also threatening fresh ‌strikes unless Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz by ⁠Tuesday.Amid the uncertainty, economists and analysts expect the RBI to keep rates unchanged this week while emphasizing readiness to support the weakening rupee and inject liquidity to keep bond yields contained.&#34;It is a close call but we officially pencil in ⁠a RBI rate hike, and see INR yields rising over time with possible fiscal slippages,&#34; MUFG analysts said in a note, forecasting that the central bank will raise policy rates by 25 basis points by March 2027.BONDSThe selloff in Indian government bonds accelerated, with the 10-year benchmark yield rising over just two trading sessions by as ​much ​as it had in the entire previous week.The benchmark 10-year yield rose 19 basis ​points last week to end at 7.1329% on Thursday, after ‌rising 20 bps in the previous week, which was its biggest weekly jump since May 2022, when the central bank had gone ahead with an off-cycle rate hike.Traders anticipate the yield to move in a 7.08% to 7.18% range till the central bank's monetary policy decision.The sell-off in bonds continued as oil prices stayed elevated, with benchmark Brent crude hovering around $110 per barrel, as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran entered its sixth week.The benchmark Brent crude contract has gained more than 50% since the war started on February 28.Heavy selling from foreign investors as well as foreign banks also putting pressure on local ‌debt.&#34;The spread between Indian government bond yields and U.S. Treasury yields has narrowed sharply, ​prompting profit-taking by global investors,&#34; said Hemant Mishr, founder &amp; CIO, S CUBE Capital, a Singapore-based ​fund.&#34;I expect the 10-year benchmark bond yield to remain in the ​7.00%-7.25% range over the next six months, assuming the RBI conducts regular OMOs, prevents further steepening of the yield curve, ‌and ensures adequate liquidity in the banking system. Otherwise, the ​market could face distortions.&#34;KEY EVENTS: India ** March ​HSBC services PMI – April 6, Monday (10:30 a.m. IST) ** Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision - April 8, Wednesday (10:00 a.m. IST)(Reuters poll: no change) U.S. ** February durable goods – April 6, Monday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** March ISM non-manufacturing PMI – April 7, Tuesday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** October-December GDP final - April 9, Thursday (6:00 ​p.m. IST)** February personal consumption expenditure - April 9, ‌Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST)** Initial weekly jobless claims for the week to April 4 - April 9, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** March consumer price inflation - ​April 10, Friday (6:00 p.m. IST)(Reuters poll: 3.3%)** February factory orders - April 10, Friday (7:30 p.m. IST)** April U-Mich sentiment final - April 10, ​Friday (7:30 p.m. IST)(Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia and Jaspreet Kalra; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)</div></div>

INDY

DGIN

XBJH

INDH

INRL

INDA

India's rupee and government bond markets are closely watching the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy amid rising oil prices due to the Iran conflict. The rupee has strengthened nearly 2% to 93.10, supported by the RBI's measures against speculative trades. Analysts expect the RBI to maintain rates but may raise them by 25 basis points by March 2027. The 10-year government bond yield rose significantly, reflecting market pressures from foreign selling and elevated oil prices. Key upcoming events include the RBI's monetary policy decision on April 8.

Yahoo Finance

iShares India 50

Vaneck Digital India ETF

Ps India Port

ETFS Short INR Long USD

WisdomTree India Hedged Equity

Xtrackers Nifty 500 India ETF

Lyxor MSCI India UCITS ETF Acc USD

ISHRS MSCI India

Indian rupee, bonds await RBI verdict; guidance on liquidity, currency moves eyed