21st Century Business Herald Reporter Ran Lili
On April 10, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in March 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.0% year-on-year and fell by 0.7% month-on-month. The national industrial producer price index (PPI) changed from a year-on-year decline of 0.9% last month to an increase of 0.5%; it rose by 1.0% month-on-month, with the increase expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to last month.
It is important to note that the year-on-year PPI has turned positive for the first time after 41 consecutive months of decline. Meanwhile, the national PPI rose by 1.0% month-on-month, marking six consecutive months of increase, the largest increase in 48 months.
Zhang Lin, deputy director of the Far East Credit Research Institute, told a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald that the PPI turning positive year-on-year is a significant price turning point, but its driving structure is biased towards external input, and the endogenous demand pull is still not stable. The continuous rebound in photovoltaic and lithium battery prices is a positive signal, but it is still in the preliminary clearing stage, and the current depth of price clearing may not be sufficient.
Looking ahead, Su Jian, a professor at Peking University's School of Economics, told a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald that regarding CPI, despite the complex and changing international situation and the persistent risk of rising input costs, domestic supply is abundant, and economic structural adjustments continue. If there are no significant changes in income and employment expectations, the CPI growth rate may continue to rise moderately. Regarding PPI, although there are still risks of input inflation caused by rising international oil prices, the impact of the Middle East situation on the prices of Chinese industrial products is relatively limited due to the diversified channels for China's crude oil imports. Currently, some traditional industries are still in the capacity reduction phase, coupled with a low base effect, it is expected that the PPI growth rate may continue to rise, with the annual industrial product price growth rate being moderate and controllable.
In March 2026, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) changed from a year-on-year decline of 0.9% last month to an increase of 0.5%; it rose by 1.0% month-on-month, with the increase expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to last month.
From the main characteristics of the year-on-year PPI operation, Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Division of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted that first, international input factors have affected the price increases or narrowed declines in related domestic industries. The price of non-ferrous metal mining and selection industries rose by 36.4% year-on-year, and the price of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries rose by 22.4%, with increases expanding by 6.2 and 0.3 percentage points compared to last month, respectively; the price of oil and gas extraction changed from a decline of 12.9% last month to an increase of 5.2%; the prices of oil, coal, and other fuel processing industries, as well as chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, fell by 4.5% and 0.3%, with declines narrowing by 7.5 and 3.4 percentage points compared to last month, respectively.
Second, the supply-demand relationship in some domestic industries has improved, leading to price increases. The market competition order continues to optimize, with prices of photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing and lithium-ion battery manufacturing rising by 5.2% and 2.5%, respectively; new growth drivers are expanding rapidly, with the demand for computing power growing quickly, leading to a 76.1% increase in fiber optic manufacturing prices, a 21.1% increase in external storage devices and components prices, and an 18.7% increase in electronic special materials manufacturing prices; green transformation empowers development, with prices of biomass fuel processing and comprehensive utilization of waste resources rising by 6.1% and 0.9%, respectively
Among these, it is noteworthy that in February, the manufacturing prices of photovoltaic equipment and components rose by 3.2%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points compared to the previous month; the manufacturing price of lithium-ion batteries changed from a decrease of 1.1% last month to an increase of 0.2%, marking the first increase after 33 consecutive months of year-on-year decline. Subsequently, in March, the manufacturing prices of photovoltaic equipment and components, as well as lithium-ion batteries, increased by 5.2% and 2.5%, respectively.
Zhang Lin pointed out that the continuous rebound in photovoltaic and lithium battery prices is a positive signal. The trend of rising prices for two consecutive months, with an expanding increase, is not an isolated event but a preliminary confirmation of a trend change. However, it is still in the initial clearing stage, and the current depth of price clearing may not be sufficient. There are still many small and medium-sized capacities in the industry operating at a loss, and the overall capacity utilization rate is relatively low. Once orders warm up, some companies may have the motivation to seize market share through price discounts, which will constrain the upward price trend. The sustainability of price recovery still depends on the depth of supply-side integration and the actual capacity of downstream demand to absorb it.
From the perspective of &#34;anti-involution,&#34; Su Jian also stated that &#34;anti-involution&#34; refers to opposing domestic companies competing for the market through price wars. Whether the market has exited &#34;involution&#34; also depends on the total demand in the market.
It is important to note that on April 9, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the National Energy Administration held a symposium for enterprises in the power and energy storage battery industry to deploy work related to regulating industrial competition order.
The meeting emphasized the importance and urgency of addressing &#34;involution-style&#34; competition, firmly resisting unreasonable and unfair competition behaviors, and maintaining a healthy and orderly market environment. The meeting required consolidating and deepening the effectiveness of regulating industrial competition order, leveraging the role of departmental collaboration mechanisms, and continuously promoting capacity warning control, regulating price competition, compressing supplier payment terms, strengthening product quality supervision, combating intellectual property infringement, and addressing &#34;involution externalization,&#34; while also guiding local investment attraction behaviors to promote high-quality industrial development.
This is the second symposium related to the power and energy storage battery industry held by the four departments this year. On January 7, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the National Energy Administration also held a symposium on the power and energy storage battery industry to implement the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council and to study and deploy further regulations on the competition order in the power and energy storage battery industry.
Zhang Lin stated that from the perspective of endogenous momentum, the improvement in industry prices representing new productive forces is a positive signal of endogenous repair, supported by real demand expansion (AI computing power, green transformation) and supply-side integration (&#34;anti-involution&#34; policies).
In March, following the Spring Festival holiday, consumer demand seasonally declined, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreasing by 0.7% month-on-month and increasing by 1.0% year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 1.1% year-on-year.
On a month-on-month basis, the national CPI decreased by 0.7%, mainly affected by the seasonal decline in food and service prices. Food prices changed from an increase of 1.9% last month to a decrease of 2.7%, impacting the CPI month-on-month decline by approximately 0.48 percentage points. Service prices changed from an increase of 1.1% last month to a decrease of 1.1%, impacting the CPI month-on-month decline by approximately 0.51 percentage points
Zhang Lin pointed out that, based on historical seasonal patterns, the CPI in the month following the Spring Festival often declines due to a post-holiday drop in demand. Comparing the March data for 2023 and 2024, the simultaneous decline in service prices and food prices after the holiday is normal, and the current month-on-month decrease of 0.7% does not deviate from historical ranges.
Year-on-year, the national CPI continues to show a moderate increase, with the growth rate slightly falling to 1.0%.
Among them, the prices of industrial consumer goods rose by 2.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing approximately 0.67 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI increase. Within industrial consumer goods, the price of gold jewelry rose by 65.8%, with the growth rate falling by 10.8 percentage points; prices for household appliances and clothing rose by 2.4% and 1.7%, respectively, both showing a decline in growth rates; gasoline prices shifted from a decrease to an increase, rising by 3.8%, contributing approximately 0.11 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI increase.
Service prices rose by 0.8%, with the growth rate falling by 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing approximately 0.36 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI increase. After the holiday, the price increases for travel and personal services have moderated, with travel agency fees, hotel accommodations, airplane tickets, and vehicle rental prices falling between 0.9% and 3.3%, while prices for pet services, vehicle repair and maintenance, housekeeping services, and dining out fell between 1.2% and 1.6%. Food prices rose by 0.3%, with the growth rate falling by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month.
Among food items, the price increases for fresh vegetables, beef, lamb, and fresh fruits ranged between 4.0% and 7.8%, all showing a decline compared to the previous month, collectively contributing approximately 0.24 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI increase; prices for pork and eggs fell by 11.5% and 3.3%, respectively, with the declines expanding compared to the previous month, collectively contributing approximately 0.23 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI decrease.
In this context, the structural differentiation in consumption is noteworthy. Zhang Lin pointed out that high-end consumption (international air tickets, travel agencies), pet services, and gold jewelry have relatively high price elasticity, while basic food and daily dining prices are relatively weak. This differentiation indicates that the current consumption recovery is still dominated by selective consumption from middle- and high-income groups, while the price sensitivity of low-income groups restricts the overall rebound of mass consumption prices. The year-on-year increase in gasoline prices, which rose by 3.8%, is a result of passive cost increases, potentially eroding residents' actual consumption capacity.
Su Jian stated that from a price perspective, since August 2025, the year-on-year CPI growth rate has entered a fluctuating upward range, reflecting the release of the effects of &#34;anti-involution&#34; policies. However, the current growth rate of consumer prices remains relatively low, with an average increase of 0.9% in national resident consumer prices from January to March compared to the same period last year, still below &#34;1&#34;. Coupled with the continued downward fluctuation in resident income growth rates, there has been no significant change in resident income expectations, making it difficult for consumer demand to expand significantly. The current consumer market has seen some recovery, but the endogenous momentum remains relatively insufficient and requires further stimulation.
Overall, Zhang Lin believes that the CPI center is expected to fluctuate moderately above 1%, maintaining a low inflation pattern for the year; after the PPI turns positive year-on-year, it will fluctuate slightly within a positive and negative range, and whether it can consistently remain in the positive range largely depends on the trends in external commodity prices and the pace of domestic demand recovery, with a higher probability of an upward trend in the second half of the year compared to the first half

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In March 2026, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) changed from a year-on-year decrease of 0.9% in the previous month to an increase of 0.5%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.0%, marking the first increase after 41 consecutive months of decline. The rebound in photovoltaic and lithium battery prices is seen as a positive signal, but it is still in the preliminary clearing stage. Experts point out that despite the complex international situation and abundant domestic supply, the CPI growth rate is expected to continue to rise moderately, and the PPI growth rate may continue to rise, with the annual growth rate of industrial product prices being moderate and controllable

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