[Global Network Consumer Report, Reporter Liu Xiaoxu] Pork prices continue to decline, with the average selling price of live pigs in many regions falling below 5 yuan/kg, and the industry reshuffle is intensifying at the breeding end.
When pork prices break through the cost red line, both leading listed pig companies and small to medium-sized farmers are caught in the turmoil; deep losses are forcing accelerated capacity clearance, while the evolution of consumption structure is profoundly changing market demand.
The Industry is Deep in Trouble
The current round of pork price decline has not only seen a significant drop but has also lasted a long time, resulting in deep losses across the entire industry. According to industry monitoring data, the national average price of live pigs in 2025 is only 14.44 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%, marking the lowest level since 2019. As we enter 2026, the downward trend is further exacerbating, with the purchase price of external three-way crossbred pigs in some regions falling below 10 yuan/kg.
Faced with such pork prices, the vast majority of breeding entities are experiencing the dilemma of &#34;selling more leads to greater losses.&#34; Data shows that in early April 2026, under the self-breeding and external piglet purchasing breeding models, the average loss per head in the live pig industry reached an astonishing 381.52 yuan and 227.38 yuan, respectively.
Changes are occurring in the smallholder pig breeding sector. In the past, smallholders were the most flexible group in the live pig market, avoiding long-cycle risks through strategies like &#34;purchasing piglets for fattening&#34; and &#34;quick turnover.&#34; Currently, under the circumstances of &#34;the more you raise, the more you lose; not raising also leads to losses,&#34; these flexible strategies have become ineffective. Faced with persistently weak pork prices and continuously accumulating feeding costs, the willingness of smallholders to restock has dropped to freezing point, with a large number of empty pens spreading across major production areas, and pessimistic sentiment is prompting smallholders to exit.
Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, stated that the current live pig market has entered a deep stage of industry-wide losses. In this round of reshuffling, smallholders, due to weak cash flow and lack of financing channels, are often the first group to be eliminated. &#34;Dare not raise, cannot afford to raise&#34; has become the most genuine psychology of current small and medium-sized breeders, marking that the industry's process of passive capacity reduction is accelerating.
Large-scale Pig Companies Endure and Extend the Cycle
In contrast to the decisive exit of smallholders, leading listed pig companies have shown strong &#34;resilience&#34; in this round of the cycle. This resilience does not come from profitability but from the support of financial strength to &#34;endure.&#34;
In past pig cycles, once losses occurred, the breeding sector would quickly eliminate sows, leading to a cliff-like drop in supply, which would then trigger a new round of price surges a few months later. However, this round of the cycle is entirely different. Leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group have faced significant pressure on their performance, with one leading pig company seeing its net profit in 2025 decline by over 16% year-on-year, and the average price of commercial pigs in the first quarter of 2026 falling below 10 yuan/kg. They have not chosen to massively cut production capacity but have instead shifted their core strategy to an extreme &#34;cost battle.&#34;
Wens Foodstuff Group's breeding cost in 2025 is about 14.4 yuan/kg, far higher than the current selling average; meanwhile, Muyuan Foods has managed to control costs at around 12 yuan/kg due to its advantages in scale and intelligence, and plans to further reduce it to 11.5 yuan/kg in 2026. This cost reduction competition, relying on refined management, feed formula optimization, and automation equipment to dilute costs, has become the only focus for large-scale pig companies at present
The steadfastness of large-scale enterprises has directly changed the pace of capacity reduction. Although starting from July 2025, relevant national departments have promoted an orderly reduction in the number of breeding sows, by the end of last year, the number of breeding sows had decreased by 1.16 million year-on-year, but the absolute number still reached 39.61 million, which is about 3 million higher than the normal retention level. The pattern of overcapacity remains stubborn, significantly extending the industry's bottom.
Wang Zuli, chief expert of the swine industry warning expert group of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, believes that the most significant feature of this round of pig cycle is the lag in capacity adjustment by large breeding groups. In the past, when smallholders dominated, losses would immediately trigger the culling of sows to reduce capacity; however, now, with strong financial backing, groups often maintain operations through borrowing to preserve market share. This &#34;who can outlast whom&#34; game has directly led to a significant extension of the capacity reduction process and a prolonged industry winter.
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Oriental IC
High-Quality Tracks Become New Anchor Points for Breakthroughs
The game on the supply side determines the length of the cycle, while changes on the demand side determine the future landscape of the industry. In the past, the analysis framework of the pig cycle focused on &#34;supply-side capacity fluctuations&#34;; today, the profound changes on the demand side can no longer be ignored.
According to data from the China Meat Association, the per capita annual pork consumption of Chinese residents has decreased from 30.5 kg in 2023 to 26.6 kg in 2025. With changes in the national diet structure, the continuous diversion of high-quality proteins such as beef, chicken, and aquatic products from pork consumption has become an irreversible trend. This means that the market ceiling for ordinary pork is continuously being pressed down, and simply relying on large-scale production of ordinary commodity pigs has fallen into a homogenized red sea of competition.
Overall pork consumption is declining, and structural upgrades have already begun. Data shows that around 2025, the pork consumption trend in first- and second-tier cities has clearly shifted from &#34;competing on price&#34; to &#34;focusing on quality,&#34; with over 70% of consumers willing to pay a premium for pork products that are antibiotic-free, slow-raised, and ecologically farmed. The demand for tender and flavorful local pork in mid-to-high-end dining channels is strong. Some brands have successfully established differentiated models. Whether it is the high-end market's &#34;certain local pig&#34; or the locally-owned black pig brands that are hot-selling through instant retail channels, it indicates that while ordinary pork is mired in a cost-cutting battle, high-quality, branded pork still possesses strong pricing power and profit margins.
Regarding the future evolution trends of the swine industry, industry analysts believe there are two major directions:
First, the industry concentration will see a leap in improvement, with a &#34;dumbbell-shaped&#34; breeding structure accelerating formation. In the future, one end will consist of super-large breeding groups with full industry chain cost control capabilities that connect upstream and downstream; the other end will be micro-ecological farmers deeply engaged in local familiar economies, focusing on specialty quality. Meanwhile, medium-sized farms that lack core cost advantages and product characteristics will face elimination
Secondly, product stratification and branding are the moats against cycles. As the overall profit center of the industry declines, the extensive &#34;selling of low-quality pigs&#34; will become unprofitable. Future pig farming enterprises must transform into food terminal companies by improving breeds (such as local native pigs and black pigs), refining quality control, and building direct channels to the consumer end, actively stepping out of the predicament of bulk agricultural product price cycles. The extreme differentiation in performance within the current pig farming industry essentially reflects a reconstruction of the underlying business logic. The fluctuations of the pig cycle have not disappeared; instead, they manifest in a more complex and brutal form—namely, the new normal of &#34;high costs, low profits, and prolonged bottoming.&#34; In the future pig market, mere &#34;large scale&#34; can no longer constitute an absolute safety cushion. Those who can survive at the bottom with extreme cost control and those who can keenly capture the &#34;quality upgrade&#34; demand amid consumption downgrade, breaking out of the homogenized price war through brand premium, will hold true pricing power in the new cycle after capacity clearance. For the entire industry, the transformation from &#34;output-oriented&#34; to &#34;quality and efficiency-oriented&#34; is essential

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The pig farming industry is facing severe losses, with pork prices continuing to decline. In many regions, the average selling price has dropped below 5 yuan per jin, leading to intensified industry reshuffling. The national average price for live pigs is expected to fall to 14.44 yuan per kilogram by 2025, the lowest since 2019. Small-scale farmers, due to weak cash flow, are facing a "losing more as they raise" dilemma, with their willingness to restock plummeting to a freezing point, and pessimistic sentiment prompting them to exit the market. Leading listed pig companies, however, are demonstrating resilience, relying on financial strength to maintain operations

The pig industry is striving to find "new anchor points"