ASML will announce its Q1 results on April 15. The core highlight of this earnings report is the forward-looking signals released by management regarding customer demand guidance, particularly the progress of EUV orders for Samsung's P5 fab, which may become the biggest catalyst driving the stock price.
Since ASML has stopped disclosing order data, there is some anxiety in the market regarding demand visibility. However, according to media reports, both SK Hynix and Samsung have sent strong order signals, with Samsung having placed orders for approximately 20 EUV equipment units for its P5 fab.
JPMorgan points out that these order dynamics represent the most substantive new information for this earnings report and maintains a positive stance on ASML's performance outlook.
UBS, taking a longer-term perspective, has identified five potential catalysts over the next 12 months, believing there is significant room for ASML to exceed market expectations. It forecasts that the full-year order volume in 2026 will reach approximately €45 billion to €50 billion, far exceeding the market consensus estimate of €39.6 billion.
<h2>Order Signals: Samsung P5 Fab Becomes the Key Focus</h2>
Since ASML ceased disclosing specific order data starting this quarter, market attention has shifted entirely to management's qualitative descriptions of customer demand movements.
Media reports have previously covered relevant developments: SK Hynix is investing approximately $8 billion to purchase EUV equipment, while Samsung has placed orders for about 20 EUV units for its P5 fab. JPMorgan notes that progress on Samsung's P5 orders is &#34;the most important news lead.&#34;
Furthermore, given that the memory market is currently supply-constrained, it is expected that TSMC will provide more frequent demand guidance for delivery arrangements in 2027 and beyond within 2026, further solidifying ASML's order visibility.
<h2>Q1 Performance Expectations: Revenue Declines Quarter-over-Quarter, Margins and Guidance Align</h2>
JPMorgan forecasts ASML's Q1 revenue at €8.521 billion, up 10.1% year-over-year, but down 12.3% quarter-over-quarter from the previous quarter, slightly below the market consensus estimate (€8.696 billion) by about 2%, hovering near the midpoint of the company's prior guidance range (€8.2 billion to €8.9 billion).
Gross margin is expected to be 52.0%, broadly in line with consensus estimates and sitting in the middle of the company's guidance range (51% to 53%). EPS forecast is €6.47, approximately 3.2% below consensus estimates.
UBS forecasts Q1 revenue at €8.712 billion, higher than JPMorgan, with a gross margin forecast also at 52.0%.
Notably, buy-side investors hold more optimistic expectations for this earnings report, generally believing that ASML's revenue and gross margin will reach the upper limit of the guidance range.
<h2>Full-Year Guidance: Revenue Expectations Exceed Company Guidance; UBS Anticipates an Upgrade</h2>
ASML previously provided a full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance range of 4% to 19% year-over-year, with a median of approximately 11.7%, corresponding to revenue of about €36.5 billion. Current Bloomberg consensus estimates are for growth of approximately 15.3%, exceeding the guidance median.
UBS expects ASML to slightly upgrade its full-year guidance in this earnings report, adjusting the range to 10% to 20%, and anticipates a further increase when Q2 results are released.
JPMorgan takes a relatively cautious stance, believing that an early upgrade is not the base case scenario; the company typically prefers to adjust the full-year guidance median during the semi-annual report. However, if customer factory preparation for DUV equipment proceeds better than expected, or if supply chain support arrangements have become clearer, an early move cannot be ruled out.
<h2>Next 12 Months: Five Catalysts Drive Valuation Restructuring</h2>
UBS has identified five key catalysts for the next 12 months. In addition to the Q1 earnings on April 15, the TSMC Technology Symposium on April 22 is also highly anticipated—TSMC may officially confirm its High-NA EUV adoption plan for the first time at the event, potentially leading small-volume production applications at the A14 node.
In July and August, hyperscale cloud enterprises are expected to begin disclosing 2027 capital expenditure outlooks. It is projected that capital expenditures by 11 major hyperscale vendors will grow by approximately 11% year-over-year in 2027; if actual figures exceed expectations, this will form a positive catalyst for the semiconductor equipment sector.
In October, ASML typically provides qualitative guidance for the following year. Management is expected to describe the 2027 growth prospects using terms such as &#34;substantial&#34; or &#34;significant,&#34; with its predicted 20% year-over-year growth rate being approximately 6% higher than the market consensus estimate, leaving considerable room for an upward revision.
Next January, ASML is expected to disclose the backlog size for the first time after a one-year hiatus. Estimated year-end 2026 backlog is around €45 billion to €50 billion, significantly higher than the market consensus estimate of €39.6 billion, which could substantially enhance market expectations for ASML's medium-term revenue visibility.

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ASML is set to release its Q1 earnings on April 15. With the company ceasing order data disclosure, market anxiety over demand visibility has risen. JPMorgan notes that progress on approximately 20 EUV orders for Samsung's P5 fab could be the biggest stock price catalyst. Currently, market expectations for full-year revenue growth exceed ASML's guidance; UBS expects ASML to slightly raise its full-year guidance to 10%-20% in this earnings report

- ASML is set to release its Q1 results on April 15, with a focus on management's signals regarding customer demand, particularly the progress of Samsung's P5 wafer fab EUV orders.  
- The market has expressed anxiety over demand visibility as ASML has ceased disclosing order data, but reports indicate strong order signals from SK Hynix and Samsung.  
- Analysts project ASML's Q1 revenue at approximately €85.21 billion, with expectations of an upward revision for the full-year guidance, anticipating a revenue increase between 10% and 20%.

ASML Earnings Preview: Samsung Fab Order Movements to Be the Biggest Catalyst!